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World’s poorest countries pushed to brink of collapse under China debt

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At least a dozen poor countries are buckling under the weight of hundreds of billions of dollars in debt, most of which is owed to China. 

A recent analysis, carried out by the Associated Press, found that for a dozen countries, paying back their debt is consuming a growing amount of their tax revenue needed to keep basic services going.

Among the countries analyzed was Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos and Mongolia and it was found that paying back their debt is also draining foreign currency reserves that these countries use to pay interest on the loans - leaving some with just months before that money is gone.

AP reported that behind the scenes is China’s reluctance to forgive debt and its extreme secrecy about how much money it has loaned and on what terms, which has kept other major lenders from stepping in to help. 

According to World Bank data analyzed by Statista recently, countries heavily in debt to China are mostly located in Africa, but can also be found in Central Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. 

And, Statista reports that the new Belt and Road Initiative, which finances the construction of port, rail and land infrastructure, has created much debt to China for participating countries, specifically poor countries.

As of March last year, 215 cooperation documents had been signed with 149 countries on the initiative.

Countries in AP’s analysis meanwhile had as much as 50% of their foreign loans from China and most were devoting more than a third of government revenue to paying off foreign debt. 

Two of them, Zambia and Sri Lanka, have already gone into default, unable to make even interest payments on loans financing the construction of ports, mines and power plants.

In Pakistan, millions of textile workers have been laid off because the country has too much foreign debt and can’t afford to keep the electricity on and machines running, AP stated.

In Kenya, the government has held back paychecks to thousands of civil service workers to save cash to pay foreign loans. The president’s chief economic adviser tweeted last month, “Salaries or default? Take your pick.”

The study also found that since Sri Lanka defaulted a year ago, a half-million industrial jobs have vanished, inflation has risen by 50% and more than half the population in many parts of the country has fallen into poverty.

The study found that experts predict that unless China begins to soften its stance on its loans to poor countries, there could be a wave of more defaults and political upheavals.

AP’s report stated that a case study of how it has played out is in Zambia, a landlocked country of 20 million people in southern Africa that over the past two decades has borrowed billions of dollars from Chinese state-owned banks to build dams, railways and roads.

While the loans boosted Zambia’s economy, they also raised foreign interest payments so high that there was little left for the government, forcing it to cut spending on healthcare, social services and subsidies to farmers for seed and fertilizer.

In the past under such circumstances, big government lenders such as the U.S., Japan and France would work out deals to forgive some debt, with each lender disclosing clearly what they were owed and on what terms so no one would feel cheated.

But China didn’t play by those rules, AP reported. It refused at first to even join in multinational talks, negotiating separately with Zambia and insisting on confidentiality that barred the country from telling non-Chinese lenders the terms of the loans.

By late 2020, Zambia was unable to pay the interest and defaulted, setting off a cycle of spending cuts and deepening poverty. 

Since then, inflation in Zambia has increased by 50%, unemployment has hit a 17-year high and the nation’s currency, the kwacha, has lost 30% of its value in just seven months. AP also found that 3.5 million Zambians are now not getting enough food. 

AP reported that a few months after Zambia defaulted, researchers found that the country owed $6.6 billion to Chinese state-owned banks, double what many thought at the time and about a third of the country’s total debt.

China’s unwillingness however to take big losses on the hundreds of billions of dollars it is owed, as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank have urged, has left many countries on a treadmill of paying back interest, which stifles the economic growth that would help them pay off the debt.

For Pakistan, its foreign cash reserves have plunged more than 50%, according to AP’s analysis, while in nine of the 12 countries analyzed, foreign cash reserves have dropped on average of 25% in just one year. 

Based on this, Pakistan for example has only two months left of foreign cash to pay for food, fuel and other essential imports if it does not get a bailout. Other countries, such as Mongolia, have eight months left. 

AP found that last month, Pakistan was so desperate to prevent more blackouts that it struck a deal to buy discounted oil from Russia, breaking ranks with the US-led effort to shut off Vladimir Putin’s funds.

In Sri Lanka, rioters poured into the streets last July, setting homes of government ministers aflame and storming the presidential palace, sending the leader tied to onerous deals with China fleeing the country.

China has however disputed the idea that Beijing is an unforgiving lender and said in a statement that the Federal Reserve was to blame. 

It said that if it is to accede to IMF and World Bank demands to forgive a portion of its loans, so should multilateral lenders, which it views as US proxies.

“We call on these institutions to actively participate in relevant actions in accordance with the principle of ‘joint action, fair burden’ and make greater contributions to help developing countries tide over the difficulties,” the statement said.

But China’s approach to lending is widely considered more transactional and criticized as “opaque” and analysts see Beijing’s desire to access oil, minerals and other commodities as the driving force behind Chinese lenders being less prone to applying strict conditions in helping governments finance roads, bridges and railroads - so as to unlock those resources.

Just last month, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers: “I’m very, very concerned about some of the activities that China engages in globally, investing in countries in ways that leave them trapped in debt and don’t promote economic development.”

“We are working very hard to counter that influence in all of the international institutions that we participate in,” she said. 

Since 2017, China has become the world’s largest official creditor, surpassing the World Bank, IMF and 22-member Paris Club combined, Brent Neiman, a counselor to Yellen, said late last year. 

Politico meanwhile reported earlier this month that China’s financing of projects in other countries between 2000 and 2017 totaled more than $800 billion, most of that in the form of loans.

But for some poor countries struggling to repay China, they now find themselves stuck in a kind of loan limbo: China won’t budge in taking losses, and the IMF won’t offer low-interest loans if the money is just going to pay interest on Chinese debt.

 

World

More than 30 dead in Brazil bus and truck collision

The truck driver fled the scene, and three occupants of a car that collided with the truck and became trapped underneath survived the accident, said the fire department.

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A packed bus collided with a truck and burst into flames early on Saturday in Brazil, killing more than 30 people, the fire department said.

After removing all of the victims from a major highway near the town of Teofilo Otoni in Minas Gerais, the state's fire department reported that of the 45 people on the bus, 38, including the bus driver, had been confirmed dead.

The other passengers remained in critical condition after being transported to a local hospital.

The truck driver fled the scene, and three occupants of a car that collided with the truck and became trapped underneath survived the accident, said the fire department.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva stated on social media that the government was ready to provide whatever assistance was needed, and that the Federal Highway Policy was at the site.

"I deeply mourn and extend my prayers to the families of the more than 30 victims of the accident in Teofilo Otoni, Minas Gerais. I pray for the recovery of the survivors of this terrible tragedy," he wrote on X.

A forensic investigation will be required to determine the accident's cause, as differing accounts were gathered from witness testimonies, said the local fire department.

Initially, firefighters reported the bus had a tire blowout, causing the driver to lose control before colliding at around 4 a.m. local time, with an oncoming truck on the BR-116 federal highway, a major route connecting Brazil's densely populated southeast to the poorer northeast.

However, witnesses also reported that a granite block the truck was transporting came loose, fell on the road and caused the collision with the bus, said the fire department.

"Only the forensic investigation will confirm the true version," said the fire department in a statement.

The bus departed from Sao Paulo and was headed to the state of Bahia.

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Biden approves $571 mln in defense support for Taiwan

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U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday agreed to provide $571.3 million in defense support for Taiwan, the White House said, while the State Department approved the potential sale to the island of $265 million worth of military equipment.

The United States is bound by law to provide Chinese-claimed Taiwan with the means to defend itself despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties between Washington and Taipei, to the constant anger of Beijing, Reuters reported.

Democratically governed Taiwan rejects China's claims of sovereignty.

China has stepped up military pressure against Taiwan, including daily military activities near the island and two rounds of war games this year.

Taiwan went on alert last week in response to what it said was China's largest massing of naval forces in three decades around Taiwan and in the East and South China Seas.

Biden had delegated to the secretary of state the authority "to direct the drawdown of up to $571.3 million in defense articles and services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training, to provide assistance to Taiwan," the White House said in a statement without providing details.

Taiwan's defense ministry thanked the United States for its "firm security guarantee", saying in a statement the two sides would continue to work closely on security issues to ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait.

The Pentagon said the State Department had approved the potential sale to Taiwan of about $265 million worth of command, control, communications, and computer modernization equipment.

Taiwan's defense ministry said the equipment sale would help upgrade its command-and-control systems.

Taiwan's defense ministry also said on Saturday that the U.S. government had approved $30 million of parts for 76 mm autocannon, which it said would boost the island's capacity to counter China's "grey-zone" warfare.

 

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Trump-backed spending deal fails in House, shutdown approaches

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A spending bill backed by Donald Trump failed in the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday as dozens of Republicans defied the president-elect, leaving Congress with no clear plan to avert a fast-approaching government shutdown that could disrupt Christmas travel.

The vote laid bare fault lines in Trump's Republican Party that could surface again next year when they control the White House and both chambers of Congress, Reuters reported.

Trump had pressured lawmakers to tie up loose ends before he takes office on Jan. 20, but members of the party's right flank refused to support a package that would increase spending and clear the way for a plan that would add trillions more to the federal government's $36 trillion in debt.

"I am absolutely sickened by a party that campaigns on fiscal responsibility and has the temerity to go to the American people and say you think this is fiscally responsible," said Republican Representative Chip Roy, one of 38 Republicans who voted against the bill.

The package failed by a vote of 174-235 just hours after it was hastily assembled by Republican leaders seeking to comply with Trump's demands. A prior bipartisan deal was scuttled after Trump and the world's richest person Elon Musk came out against it on Wednesday.

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson provided no details when reporters asked him about next steps after the failed vote.

"We will come up with another solution," he said.

Government funding is due to expire at midnight on Friday. If lawmakers fail to extend that deadline, the U.S. government will begin a partial shutdown that would interrupt funding for everything from border enforcement to national parks and cut off paychecks for more than 2 million federal workers. The U.S. Transportation Security Administration warned that travelers during the busy holiday season could face long lines at airports.

"Congress must get rid of, or extend out to, perhaps, 2029, the ridiculous Debt Ceiling. Without this, we should never make a deal," Trump said in a post on Truth Social hours after the bill failed.

Thursday's unsuccessful bill largely resembled the earlier version that Musk and Trump had blasted as a wasteful giveaway to Democrats. It would have extended government funding into March and provided $100 billion in disaster relief and suspended the debt. Republicans dropped other elements that had been included in the original package, such as a pay raise for lawmakers and new rules for pharmacy benefit managers.

At Trump's urging, the new version also would have suspended limits on the national debt for two years -- a maneuver that would make it easier to pass the dramatic tax cuts he has promised.

Johnson before the vote told reporters that the package would avoid disruption, tie up loose ends and make it easier for lawmakers to cut spending by hundreds of billions of dollars when Trump takes office next year.

"Government is too big, it does too many things, and it does few things well," he said.

TEEING UP TAX CUT

Democrats blasted the bill as a cover for a budget-busting tax cut that would largely benefit wealthy backers such as Musk, the world's richest person, while saddling the country with trillions of dollars in additional debt.

"How dare you lecture America about fiscal responsibility, ever?" House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said during floor debate.

Even if the bill had passed the House, it would have faced long odds in the Senate, which is currently controlled by Democrats. The White House said Democratic President Joe Biden did not support it.

Previous fights over the debt ceiling have spooked financial markets, as a U.S. government default would send credit shocks around the world. The limit has been suspended under an agreement that technically expires on Jan. 1, though lawmakers likely will not have to tackle the issue before the spring.

When he returns to office, Trump aims to enact tax cuts that could reduce revenues by $8 trillion over 10 years, which would drive the debt higher without offsetting spending cuts. He has vowed not to reduce retirement and health benefits for seniors that make up a vast chunk of the budget and are projected to grow dramatically in the years to come.

The last government shutdown took place in December 2018 and January 2019 during Trump's first White House term.

The unrest also threatened to topple Johnson, a mild-mannered Louisianan who was thrust unexpectedly into the speaker's office last year after the party's right flank voted out then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy over a government funding bill. Johnson has repeatedly had to turn to Democrats for help in passing legislation when he has been unable to deliver the votes from his own party.

He tried the same maneuver on Thursday, but this time fell short.

Several Republicans said they would not vote for Johnson as speaker when Congress returns in January, potentially setting up another tumultuous leadership battle in the weeks before Trump takes office.

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