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Where are Russia’s top generals? Rumors swirl after mercenary mutiny

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Russia's most senior generals have dropped out of public view following a failed mercenary mutiny aimed at toppling the top brass, amid a drive by President Vladimir Putin to reassert his authority.

Unconfirmed reports say at least one person has been arrested, Reuters reported.

Armed forces chief of staff General Valery Gerasimov has not appeared in public or on state TV since the aborted mutiny on Saturday when mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded Gerasimov be handed over. Nor has he been mentioned in a defense ministry press release since June 9.

Gerasimov, 67, is the commander of Russia's war in Ukraine, and the holder of one of Russia's three "nuclear briefcases," according to some Western military analysts.

Absent from view too is General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed "General Armageddon" by the Russian press for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, who is deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.

A New York Times report, based on a U.S. intelligence briefing, said on Tuesday he had advance knowledge of the mutiny and that Russian authorities were checking if he was complicit.

The Kremlin on Wednesday played down the report, saying that there would be a lot of speculation and gossip.

U.S. officials told Reuters on Wednesday that Surovikin had been in support of Prigozhin, but that Western intelligence did not know with certainty if he had helped the rebellion in any way.

The Russian-language version of the Moscow Times and one military blogger reported Surovikin's arrest, while some other military correspondents who command large followings in Russia said he and other senior officers were being questioned by the FSB security service to verify their loyalty.

Reuters could not determine whether Surovikin had been arrested or was being screened, along with others, for their reliability in a more standard exercise.

Rybar, an influential channel on the Telegram messaging application run by a former Russian defense ministry press officer, said a purge was underway.

He said the authorities were trying to weed out military personnel deemed to have shown "a lack of decisiveness" in putting down the mutiny amid some reports that parts of the armed forces appear to have done little to stop Wagner fighters in the initial stage of the rebellion.

"The armed insurgency by the Wagner private military company has become a pretext for a massive purge in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces," Rybar said.

Such a move, if confirmed, could alter the way Russia wages its war in Ukraine — which it calls a "special military operation" — and cause turmoil in the ranks at a time when Moscow is trying to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

It could also cement or elevate the positions of other senior military and security figures regarded as loyal.

There was no official comment on what was going on from the defense ministry.

Some Russian and Western military and political analysts believe Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, a veteran Putin ally who Prigozhin wanted to bring down with Gerasimov because of his alleged incompetence, may actually now be safer in his job.

"I think he (Prigozhin) actually expected something would be done about Shoigu and Gerasimov, that Putin would rule in his favor," Michael Kofman, a Russian military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment think tank, wrote on Twitter.

"Instead, his mutiny may have ensured their continued tenure, despite being universally recognised as incompetent, and widely detested in the Russian Federation's armed forces."

General Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard and once Putin's bodyguard, appears to be another beneficiary after appearing in public to say his men were ready to "stand to the death" to defend Moscow from Wagner.

He has spoken of the possibility of getting heavy weaponry and tanks for his forces in the wake of the mutiny.

Gerasimov was conspicuous by his absence when Putin on Tuesday thanked the army for averting a civil war, unlike Shoigu who has made several public appearances since.

Surovikin, Gerasimov's deputy, was last seen on Saturday when he appeared in a video appealing to Prigozhin to halt his mutiny. He looked exhausted and it was unclear if he was speaking under duress.

Dara Massicot, an expert in the Russian military at the RAND Corporation think tank, said that something looked odd about the video, in which Surovikin has an automatic weapon on his lap.

"I noted a few days ago, there was something very off here. He’s not wearing his insignia or rank tabs. 30+ years in the military and he’s not got them on, even at night? Nope," she wrote on Twitter.

There were unconfirmed Russian media and blogger reports on Wednesday evening that Surovikin was being held in Moscow's Lefortovo detention facility after being arrested.

Alexei Venediktov, a well-connected journalist, said - without citing his sources - that Surovikin had not been in touch with his family since Saturday and that his bodyguards had gone silent too.

Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London, said Surovikin's removal, if true, could be more destabilizing to Russia's war effort than Saturday's mutiny "especially if other associates of Prigozhin/Surovikin start to get purged."

"Surovikin (is) a brute but also one of the more capable Russian commanders," Freedman said on Twitter.

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North Korea’s Kim accuses US of stoking tension, warns of nuclear war

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has accused the United States of ramping up tension and provocations, saying the Korean peninsula has never faced a greater risk of nuclear war, state media KCNA said on Friday.

The comments came amid international criticism over increasingly close military co-operation between Pyongyang and Moscow, and assertions that North Korea sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported.

Previous negotiations with Washington have only highlighted its "aggressive and hostile" policy toward North Korea, Kim said in a speech at a military exhibition in Pyongyang, the capital, the KCNA news agency said.

"Never before have the warring parties on the Korean peninsula faced such a dangerous and acute confrontation that it could escalate into the most destructive thermonuclear war," he said on Thursday.

"We have already gone as far as we can on negotiating with the United States," he said, adding that the talks had only shown its aggressive and hostile policy toward North Korea could never change.

North Korean state media have not yet publicly mentioned the re-election of Donald Trump, who held three unprecedented meetings with Kim during his first term, in Singapore, Hanoi, and at the Korean border, in 2018 and 2019.

But their diplomacy yielded no concrete outcome due to the gap between U.S. calls for North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons and Kim's demands for sanctions relief.

Trump has long touted his ties with Kim, saying last month the two countries would have had "a nuclear war with millions of people killed", but he had stopped it, thanks to his ties with the North's leader.

Hong Min, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, said Kim could be trying to underscore the North's nuclear capabilities ahead of Trump's second term, while leaving the door open for diplomacy.

"He might be suggesting Trump should show his 'willingness to co-exist' before re-opening any talks and calling for a change in the U.S. hostile attitude," Hong said.

MILITARY EXHIBITION

Kim also called for developing and upgrading "ultra-modern" versions of weaponry, and vowed to keep advancing defence capabilities to bolster the North's strategic position, KCNA said.

Strategic and tactical weapons were on display at the event, called the Defence Development Exhibition.

KCNA pictures showed the Hwasong-19 and 18 intercontinental ballistic missiles, the Chollima-1 rocket used in a successful satellite launch in November 2023, and the Saetbyol-9 multi-purpose attack drone, which resembles the U.S. Reaper.

Hong said the pictures also included several weapons needed by or presumed to already have been supplied to Russia for its war in Ukraine, such as 240mm multiple rocket launchers, self-propelled howitzers, anti-tank systems and drones.

North Korea has shipped additional arms to Russia, the South's lawmakers said on Thursday, after being briefed by the national intelligence agency.

Last year, when he was defence minister, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu accompanied Kim to a defence fair that showcased missiles and weapons.

Last week, Kim urged the North's military to improve its war-fighting capabilities, blaming the United States and its allies for stoking tension to "the worst phase in history" and calling the Korean peninsula "the world's biggest hotspot".

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ICC issues arrest warrants for Israel’s Netanyahu, Gallant and Hamas leader

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Judges at the International Criminal Court have issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defence chief, as well as a Hamas leader, Ibrahim Al-Masri, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, Reuters reported on Thursday afternoon.

The move comes after the ICC prosecutor Karim Khan announced on May 20, that he was seeking arrest warrants for alleged crimes connected to the Oct.7, 2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas and the Israeli military response in Gaza.

The ICC said Israel's acceptance of the court's jurisdiction was not required.

Israel has rejected the jurisdiction of the Hague-based court and denies war crimes in Gaza.

Israel has said it killed Al-Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, in an airstrike but Hamas has neither confirmed nor denied this.

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US vetoes UN Security Council resolution on Gaza ceasefire

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The United States on Wednesday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza, drawing criticism of the Biden administration for once again blocking international action aimed at halting Israel's war with Hamas.

The 15-member council voted on a resolution put forward by 10 non-permanent members that called for an "immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire" in the 13-month conflict and separately demanded the release of hostages, Reuters reported.

Only the U.S. voted against, using its veto as a permanent council member to block the resolution.

Robert Wood, deputy U.S. ambassador to the U.N., said Washington had made clear it would only support a resolution that explicitly calls for the immediate release of hostages as part of a ceasefire.

"A durable end to the war must come with the release of the hostages. These two urgent goals are inextricably linked. This resolution abandoned that necessity, and for that reason, the United States could not support it," he said.

Wood said the U.S. had sought compromise, but the text of the proposed resolution would have sent a "dangerous message" to Hamas that "there's no need to come back to the negotiating table."

Israel's campaign in Gaza has killed nearly 44,000 people and displaced nearly all the enclave's population at least once. It was launched in response to an attack by Hamas-led fighters who killed 1,200 people and captured more than 250 hostages in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

Members roundly criticized the U.S. for blocking the resolution put forward by the council's 10 elected members: Algeria, Ecuador, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Switzerland.

"It is deeply regretted that due to the use of the veto this council has once again failed to uphold its responsibility to maintain international peace and security," Malta's U.N. Ambassador Vanessa Frazier said after the vote failed, adding that the text of the resolution "was by no means a maximalist one."

"It represented the bare minimum of what is needed to begin to address the desperate situation on the ground," she said.

Food security experts have warned that famine is imminent among Gaza's 2.3 million people.

U.S. President Joe Biden, who leaves office on Jan. 20, has offered Israel strong diplomatic backing and continued to provide arms for the war, while trying unsuccessfully to broker a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that would see hostages released in exchange for Palestinians held by Israel.

After blocking earlier resolutions on Gaza, Washington in March abstained from a vote that allowed a resolution to pass demanding an immediate ceasefire.

A senior U.S. official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity ahead of Wednesday's vote, said Britain had put forward new language that the U.S. would have supported as a compromise, but that was rejected by the elected members.

Some members were more interested in bringing about a U.S. veto than compromising on the resolution, the official said, accusing U.S. adversaries Russia and China of encouraging those members.

'GREEN LIGHT'

France's ambassador Nicolas de Riviere said the resolution rejected by the U.S. "very firmly" required the release of hostages.

"France still has two hostages in Gaza, and we deeply regret that the Security Council was not able to formulate this demand," he said.

China's U.N. ambassador, Fu Cong, said each time the United States had exercised its veto to protect Israel, the number of people killed in Gaza had steadily risen.

"How many more people have to die before they wake up from their pretend slumber?" he asked.

"Insistence on setting a precondition for ceasefire is tantamount to giving the green light to continue the war and condoning the continued killing."

Israel's U.N. ambassador Danny Danon said ahead of the vote the text was not a resolution for peace but was "a resolution for appeasement" of Hamas.

"History will remember who stood with the hostages and who abandoned them," Danon said.

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