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Climate Change

Warming, other factors worsened Pakistan floods, study finds

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Climate change likely juiced rainfall by up to 50% late last month in two southern Pakistan provinces, but global warming wasn’t the biggest cause of the country’s catastrophic flooding that has killed more than 1,500 people, a new scientific analysis finds, AP reported.

Pakistan’s overall vulnerability, including people living in harm’s way, is the chief factor in the disaster that at one point submerged one-third of the country under water, but human-caused “climate change also plays a really important role here,” said study senior author Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College of London.

There are many ingredients to the still ongoing humanitarian crisis — some meteorological, some economic, some societal, some historic and construction oriented. Add to that weather records that don’t go back far enough in time.

With such complications and limitations, the team of international scientists looking at the disaster couldn’t quantify how much climate change had increased the likelihood and frequency of the flooding, said authors of the study. It was released Thursday but not yet peer reviewed.

What happened “would have been a disastrously high rainfall event without climate change, but it’s worse because of climate change,” Otto said. “And especially in this highly vulnerable region, small changes matter a lot.”

But other human factors that put people in harm’s way and weren’t adequate to control the water were even bigger influences.

“This disaster was the result of vulnerability that was constructed over many, many years,” said study team member Ayesha Siddiqi of the University of Cambridge.

August rainfall in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces -- together nearly the size of Spain -- was eight and nearly seven times normal amounts, while the country as a whole had three-and-a-half times its normal rainfall, according to the report by World Weather Attribution, a collection of mostly volunteer scientists from around the world who do real-time studies of extreme weather to look for the fingerprints of climate change.

The team looked at just the two provinces over five days and saw an increase of up to 50% in the intensity of rainfall that was likely due to climate change. They also looked at the entire Indus region over two months and saw up to a 30% increase in rainfall there.

The scientists not only examined records of past rains, which only go back to 1961, but they used computer simulations to compare what happened last month to what would have happened in a world without heat-trapping gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas — and that difference is what they could attribute to climate change. This is a scientifically valid technique, according to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences.

Study co-author Fahad Saeed, a climate scientist at Climate Analytics and the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Islamabad, Pakistan, said numerous factors made this monsoon season much wetter than normal, including a La Nina, the natural cooling of part of the Pacific that alters weather worldwide.

But other factors had the signature of climate change, Saeed said. A nasty heat wave in the region earlier in the summer -- which was made 30 times more likely because of climate change -- increased the differential between land and water temperatures. That differential determines how much moisture goes from the ocean to the monsoon and means more of it drops.

And climate change seemed to slightly change the jet stream, storm tracks and where low pressure sits, bringing more rainfall for southern provinces than they usually get, Saeed said.

“Pakistan has not contributed much in terms of causing global climate change, but sure is having to deal with a massive amount of climate change consequences,” said University of Michigan environment dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn’t part of the study.

Overpeck and three other outside climate scientists said the study makes sense and is nuanced properly to bring in all risk factors.

The nuances help “avoid overinterpretation,” said Stanford University climate scientist Chris Field. “But we also want to avoid missing the main message -- human-caused climate change is increasing the risks of extreme events around the world, including the devastating 2022 Pakistan flooding.”

Climate Change

COP29 climate talks: What is needed for a deal by Friday’s deadline?

The talks, which began on Nov. 11, are due to end on Friday at 2pm but COP summits have a history of running long,

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Marathon COP29 climate talks enter their final stretch on Wednesday when the Azerbaijani hosts are due to publish an update on negotiations so far as the summit seeks to agree a new goal on issues including climate finance.

The talks, which began on Nov. 11, are due to end on Friday afternoon but COP summits have a history of running long, Reuters reported.

Below is a breakdown of the known sticking points and what happens next:

DRAFT TEXTS

Officials spent the first week trying to agree to deals across a range of different issues including finance, carbon markets, the future of fossil fuels and efforts to mitigate the rise in global temperatures.

Now, the outstanding items have been handed over to ministers so they can use their political clout to try to get agreements across the line.

The next steps are about trying to whittle down draft texts containing a huge range of wording options into a final document that can be adopted by consensus at the end of the summit.

Draft texts will be published periodically by the Azerbaijani presidency as they zero in on an acceptable deal.

CLIMATE FINANCE GOAL

The primary aim of COP29 is to agree a new target for how much money should be provided to developing countries to help them adapt to climate-fuelled weather disasters and transition to cleaner energy systems.

A previous goal to provide $100 billion per year expires in 2025. The new goal needs to be $1 trillion annually by the end of the decade, according to experts.

The focus in the negotiating rooms has been on defining the structure of a new target, including what counts as climate finance and who needs to pay in. Only once that is agreed are parties expected to start talking about the size of the target.

Issues to iron out include whether countries such as China should be counted among the richer core donors, and the degree to which countries should provide finance in the form of grants or loans.

A text has been scheduled for publication on Wednesday evening.

FOSSIL FUELS

Countries have so far struggled to agree on the right way to follow up on a deal at last year's summit to transition from fossil fuels.

European states want to see that commitment referenced throughout any deal at Baku to reinforce the importance of following through with firm action. Others, including the Arab Group of states, argue it does not need to be.

If past COPs are anything to go by, the moment any deal text is published, delegates will be searching for the phrase "fossil fuels" to see if there is any sign of backsliding.

CARBON MARKETS

Talks in Baku began with an early deal on some of the quality standards that would govern a global market for carbon credits, but there is still much to be agreed on, including how to track trades and disclosure rules.

If fully agreed, market watchers expect a U.N.-backed global market could fund billions of dollars of projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from projects such as reforestation.

Scrutiny of the details is intense amid concern that without watertight regulation carbon credits may not deliver the benefits they claim.

FINAL HOURS

COPs rarely finish on time. COP28 in Dubai closed almost a full day after the initial deadline; COP27 in Egypt overran by around 36 hours.

In the final hours, delegations consult intensively in private with the presidency on the proposed deal, often through the night, in search of something that can be adopted by consensus.

Once finalised, every country is called to the main hall to begin an hours-long process of formal approval.

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Climate Change

Toxic smog persists over India’s north; Delhi pollution remains severe

India battles air pollution every winter as cold, heavy air traps dust, emissions, and smoke from farm fires started illegally in the adjoining, farming states of Punjab and Haryana

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Residents in India's northern states woke up to another day of poor air quality on Tuesday, as a layer of dense fog shrouded most of the region, and pollution in the capital Delhi remained severe.

India battles air pollution every winter as cold, heavy air traps dust, emissions, and smoke from farm fires started illegally in the adjoining, farming states of Punjab and Haryana.

The air quality index (AQI) touched a peak of 491 in Delhi on Monday, forcing the government to introduce restrictions on vehicle movement and construction activities, and schools to conduct classes online.

On Tuesday, Delhi's 24-hour air quality index (AQI) reading was at 488 on a scale of 500, India's Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) said, and at least five stations in the capital reported an AQI of 500, Retuers reported.

CPCB defines an AQI reading of 0-50 as "good" and above 401 as "severe", which it says is a risk to healthy people and "seriously impacts" those with existing diseases.

Swiss group IQAir ranked New Delhi as the world's most polluted city with air quality at a "hazardous" 489, although that was a significant improvement from Monday's 1,081 reading.

Experts say the scores vary because of a difference in the scale countries adopt to convert pollutant concentrations into AQI, and so the same quantity of a specific pollutant may be translated as different AQI scores in different countries.

India's weather department said a shift in the fog layer towards the northern state of Uttar Pradesh had helped improve visibility over Delhi.

Visibility dropped to zero metres in Uttar Pradesh's capital Agra, which lies southeast of Delhi. The Taj Mahal, India's famed monument of love, has been obscured by toxic smog for nearly a week.

The strict measures to mitigate the impact of high pollution have hurt production at more than 3.4 million micro, small and medium enterprises in the nearby states of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi, local media reported.

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Climate Change

Pakistan’s Punjab shuts construction and schools, and lockdown looms to fight smog

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Pakistan's Punjab declared a health emergency due to toxic smog on Friday, banning construction, shutting schools for another week and moving universities online, with a three-day lockdown possible, the province's senior minister said on Friday.

Punjab battles toxic smog every winter as cold air traps dust, emissions, and smoke from illegal stubble burning on fields. Air quality has deteriorated drastically in recent weeks and the province's capital Lahore currently ranks as the world's most polluted city, says IQAir.

"A complete lockdown will be enforced on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (next week) if the situation does not improve by Wednesday," said Punjab Senior Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb, addressing a press conference in Lahore.

Citizens were advised to stay indoors. Air Quality Index (AQI) readings in Lahore reached 637 at 3 p.m. (1000 GMT), according to Swiss group IQAir, significantly higher than levels recommended by the World Health Organization.

The government had ordered the closure of construction, brick kilns, and furnace-based plants in Lahore and the city of Multan, the minister said.

Punjab's government had last week ordered schools to close until Nov. 17, and on Friday the shift to online learning was extended for another week. Colleges and universities will also shut down, moving to virtual classes.

The eastern province has already banned entry to parks, zoos, playgrounds and other public spaces.

South Asia faces severe pollution each year due to trapped dust, emissions and stubble burning - the practice of setting fire to fields after the grain harvest.

Punjab has blamed this year's particularly high pollution levels partly on toxic air flowing from neighbouring India, where air quality has also reached hazardous levels.

India's capital of New Delhi, the world's most polluted capital city, banned all non-essential construction, moved younger children to virtual classrooms and asked residents to avoid using coal and wood from Friday to combat increasing air pollution.

New Delhi's air quality level reached 539 on Friday, according to live rankings by IQAir, the worst amongst global capitals.

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