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Climate Change

Warming, other factors worsened Pakistan floods, study finds

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Climate change likely juiced rainfall by up to 50% late last month in two southern Pakistan provinces, but global warming wasn’t the biggest cause of the country’s catastrophic flooding that has killed more than 1,500 people, a new scientific analysis finds, AP reported.

Pakistan’s overall vulnerability, including people living in harm’s way, is the chief factor in the disaster that at one point submerged one-third of the country under water, but human-caused “climate change also plays a really important role here,” said study senior author Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College of London.

There are many ingredients to the still ongoing humanitarian crisis — some meteorological, some economic, some societal, some historic and construction oriented. Add to that weather records that don’t go back far enough in time.

With such complications and limitations, the team of international scientists looking at the disaster couldn’t quantify how much climate change had increased the likelihood and frequency of the flooding, said authors of the study. It was released Thursday but not yet peer reviewed.

What happened “would have been a disastrously high rainfall event without climate change, but it’s worse because of climate change,” Otto said. “And especially in this highly vulnerable region, small changes matter a lot.”

But other human factors that put people in harm’s way and weren’t adequate to control the water were even bigger influences.

“This disaster was the result of vulnerability that was constructed over many, many years,” said study team member Ayesha Siddiqi of the University of Cambridge.

August rainfall in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces — together nearly the size of Spain — was eight and nearly seven times normal amounts, while the country as a whole had three-and-a-half times its normal rainfall, according to the report by World Weather Attribution, a collection of mostly volunteer scientists from around the world who do real-time studies of extreme weather to look for the fingerprints of climate change.

The team looked at just the two provinces over five days and saw an increase of up to 50% in the intensity of rainfall that was likely due to climate change. They also looked at the entire Indus region over two months and saw up to a 30% increase in rainfall there.

The scientists not only examined records of past rains, which only go back to 1961, but they used computer simulations to compare what happened last month to what would have happened in a world without heat-trapping gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas — and that difference is what they could attribute to climate change. This is a scientifically valid technique, according to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences.

Study co-author Fahad Saeed, a climate scientist at Climate Analytics and the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Islamabad, Pakistan, said numerous factors made this monsoon season much wetter than normal, including a La Nina, the natural cooling of part of the Pacific that alters weather worldwide.

But other factors had the signature of climate change, Saeed said. A nasty heat wave in the region earlier in the summer — which was made 30 times more likely because of climate change — increased the differential between land and water temperatures. That differential determines how much moisture goes from the ocean to the monsoon and means more of it drops.

And climate change seemed to slightly change the jet stream, storm tracks and where low pressure sits, bringing more rainfall for southern provinces than they usually get, Saeed said.

“Pakistan has not contributed much in terms of causing global climate change, but sure is having to deal with a massive amount of climate change consequences,” said University of Michigan environment dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn’t part of the study.

Overpeck and three other outside climate scientists said the study makes sense and is nuanced properly to bring in all risk factors.

The nuances help “avoid overinterpretation,” said Stanford University climate scientist Chris Field. “But we also want to avoid missing the main message — human-caused climate change is increasing the risks of extreme events around the world, including the devastating 2022 Pakistan flooding.”

Climate Change

UN and ICRC warn of serious water shortage in Afghanistan

The International Committee of the Red Cross in Afghanistan reported that an estimated 33 million people in the country face severe water shortage

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The United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN Habitat) warned this week that 21 million people in Afghanistan are currently facing a serious water crisis and that the country needs major investments in water infrastructure.

Stephanie Loose, the head of the programme, said in a report that major Afghan cities such as Kabul, Kandahar and Herat are also facing a serious shortage of clean drinking water and that groundwater resources in these cities are decreasing significantly. 

However, last week, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Afghanistan reported that an estimated 33 million people in the country face severe water shortage. 

Marking World Water Day on March 22, the ICRC quoted a Kabul resident Shafiqullah Hamkar of District 5 in Kabul city as saying: “Our borewells have completely dried up because of the minimal snowfall and rainfall over the last few years. 

“The sharp decline in groundwater levels has left us no choice but to rely on commercial water tankers for our most basic needs. It is a big challenge for us in the city,” he said. 

ICRC said Hamkar represents an estimated 80% of Afghans who are dealing with the severe impact of erratic rainfall patterns, rising temperatures and droughts. 

The situation is even worse in rural areas where people often rely on untreated surface water, which leads to the spread of waterborne diseases such as cholera and diarrhea.

“For millions of Afghans, who are already struggling with many challenges and facing a dire humanitarian situation, vital activities such as getting water to drink or cook and providing irrigation for crops are often impossible. This has a devastating impact on people’s health and access to food, and hampers the country’s potential for economic development,” says Martin De Boer, the head of programs for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Afghanistan. 

He added that the lack of required infrastructure – including water-supply systems, dams and irrigation networks – further exacerbates the challenges. Responding to the needs of the people, the ICRC plays an important role in supporting communities and assisting authorities to improve and manage water supplies.

 

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Climate Change

Over 500,000 Afghans displaced due to climate disasters in 2024: IOM

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More than half a million people in Afghanistan were displaced due to climate disasters in 2024, the International Organization for Migration said in a country report published on Tuesday.

“Nearly 9 million individuals were impacted by climate hazards in the last 12 months, with over 500,000 displaced by floods, drought, and other disasters,” IOM said, AFP reported.

“Roughly three in five of those displaced relocated elsewhere within their province of origin”, with the western Herat and Farah provinces among the hardest hit, it said.

This week, 39 people were killed due to floods, hail and storms in southwestern Afghanistan, mainly in Farah, according to local authorities.

Afghanistan is among the poorest countries in the world after decades of war and is ranked the sixth most vulnerable to climate change, which is spurring extreme weather.

Drought, floods, land degradation and declining agricultural productivity are key threats, according to the United Nations.

Flash floods last May killed hundreds and swamped swaths of agricultural land in Afghanistan, where 80 percent of people depend on farming to survive.

“Over 11 million people in Afghanistan are at high risk of severe impacts from climate-induced disasters in the future,” the IOM said.

The UN agency estimates that “climate-sensitive livelihoods, like subsistence farming, make up 73 percent of jobs in Afghanistan”.

It added that “92 percent of villages have limited access to emergency services” and “96 percent lack resources for crucial measures like early warning systems and search and rescue.”

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Climate Change

Floods in Farah and Kandahar claim the lives of 29 people

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Officials from the disaster management departments of Farah and Kandahar report that floods in these two provinces have resulted in 29 fatalities and nine injuries.

Mohammad Israel Sayar, the head of disaster management in Farah, confirmed to Ariana News that 21 people lost their lives and six others were injured due to floods on Tuesday in the Qala-e-Kah district of the province.

According to Sayar, the victims had gone to the mountains of Qala-e-Kah for recreation purposes when floodwaters suddenly swept them away.

Officials from the disaster management department in Kandahar also stated that floods in the province have caused 11 deaths and injuries.

They reported that in the seventh district of the province, one woman and three children died when the roof of a house collapsed.

They added that in the fifth security district of the province, three women and one child lost their lives due to the floods. Two children and one man were also injured.

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