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US military forces to stay decades in Afghanistan

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(Last Updated On: October 25, 2022)

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Published by Washington Post

Top U.S. military commanders, who only a few months ago were planning to pull the last American troops out of Afghanistan by year’s end, are now quietly talking about an American commitment that could keep thousands of troops in the country for decades.

The shift in mind-set, made possible by President Obama’s decision last fall to cancel withdrawal plans, reflects the Afghan government’s vulnerability to continued militant assault and concern that terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda continue to build training camps whose effect could be felt far beyond the region, said senior military officials.

President Obama will keep 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through most of 2016

At a news conference Thursday, Oct. 15, President Obama says the U.S. will maintain 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through most of 2016 and will not go down to a normal embassy presence by the end of 2016, but instead will keep 5,500 troops at a small number of bases. (AP)

The new American outlook marks a striking change for Obama, who campaigned on a promise to bring American troops home and has said repeatedly that he does not support the “idea of endless war.” And it highlights a major shift for the American military, which has spent much of the past decade racing to hit milestones as part of its broader “exit strategy” from Afghanistan and Iraq. These days, that phrase has largely disappeared from the military’s lexicon.

In its place, there is a broad recognition in the Pentagon that building an effective Afghan army and police force will take a generation’s commitment, including billions of dollars a year in outside funding and constant support from thousands of foreign advisers on the ground.

“What we’ve learned is that you can’t really leave,” said a senior Pentagon official with extensive experience in Afghanistan and Iraq who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal discussions. “The local forces need air support, intelligence and help with logistics. They are not going to be ready in three years or five years. You have to be there for a very long time.”

Senior U.S. commanders have also been surprised by al-Qaeda’s resilience and ability to find a haven in the Afghan countryside, as well as the Taliban’s repeated seizure of large tracts of contested territory.

 [Pentagon has new authority to strike Islamic State in Afghanistan]

In November, the U.S. military sent a company of elite U.S. Rangers to southeastern Afghanistan to help Afghan counterterrorism forces destroy an al-Qaeda training camp in a “fierce fight” that lasted for several days.

The training camp was “absolutely massive,” said Brig. Gen. Wilson Shoffner, a military spokesman in Afghanistan.

“No matter what happens in the next couple of years Afghanistan is going to have wide ungoverned spaces that violent extremist organizations can take advantage of,” Shoffner said. “The camp that developed in southeastern Kandahar is an example of what can happen.”

There are now 9,800 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, some of them advising local forces and some focused on hunting down al-Qaeda and other hard-line militants. Plans call for Obama to halve that force by the time he leaves office, but he could defer the decision to the next president.

The U.S. military’s current thinking reflects its painful experience in Iraq, where Iraqi army forces collapsed less than three years after American forces left in 2011.

And it’s echoed in the arguments made by many Republican and Democratic foreign policy advisers, looking beyond the Obama presidency, for a significant long-term American presence. “This is not a region you want to abandon,” said Michèle Flournoy, a former Pentagon official who would probably be considered a top candidate for defense secretary in a Hillary Clinton administration. “So the question is what do we need going forward given our interests?”

[Taliban is targeting Afghan cities]

In Helmand province, where American troops suffered the heaviest losses of the war, Afghan units have struggled to hold on to territory taken by American forces from the Taliban in 2011 and 2012. “There’s a real will-to-fight issue there,” said a senior military official in Kabul.

Senior American commanders said that the Afghan troops in the province have lacked effective leaders as well as the necessary weapons and ammunition to hold off persistent Taliban attacks. Some Afghan soldiers in Helmand have been fighting in tough conditions for years without a break to see family, leading to poor morale and high desertion rates.

Gen. John F. Campbell, the top American commander, has sent Special Operations forces to the province to help direct American airstrikes and provide help with planning. An American soldier was killed and two others were wounded this month fighting alongside the Afghans.

In addition, about 300 U.S. troops in Helmand are advising Afghan commanders at the corps level, well removed from the front lines.

The American support is designed to arrest the immediate losses, but building an effective and sustainable fighting force that can manage contested areas such as Helmand province, will take many years, U.S. military officials said.

Foreign officials say the Afghan units lack effective mid-level officers and sergeants who can lead troops in combat and are not captive to patronage networks that dominate the country and sap soldier morale. Seeding the force with mid-level officers often requires bringing in young leaders from outside the current system and training them from scratch.

“I think a generational approach has value,” Shoffner said.

Senior U.S. officials point to improvements in areas such as evacuating wounded troops from the battlefield. As recently as 2013, it took the Afghan army 24 hours on average to get medical assistance to wounded troops. Now help usually arrives in four hours, still longer than desired. But other critical goals, such as building an effective resupply system for the country or a capable air force, cannot be accomplished in a few years. Many of the American pilots flying in Afghanistan have 10 to 15 years of experience.

“How long does it take to grow a 15-year pilot? It takes about 15 years,” Shoffner said. “We’re starting a little late with the air force.”

Senior U.S. military officials and some former Obama administration officials increasingly compare the U.S. government’s plans for Afghanistan to its approach to South Korea, where it has maintained tens of thousands of troops for decades. Other top officials cite the example of Colombia, where the United States has long provided training, money and contractors.

[The war in Afghanistan is turning even more chaotic. Read these stories to catch up.]

“Our presence right now helps serve as a significant bulwark against instability and at a cost that I think is reasonable to bear,” said Daniel Feldman, who until recently served as the Obama administration’s special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. “Particularly if we’re not proposing a significant combat role, I think the American people would be open to the argument of sticking with Afghanistan.”​

U.S. officials said that in Afghan President Ashraf Ghani they have a willing and reliable partner who can provide bases to attack terrorist groups, not just in Afghanistan but also throughout South Asia, for as long as the threat in the chronically unstable region persists.

The difference between Afghanistan and other long-term American commitments in South Korea and Colombia is that Afghanistan remains a far more dangerous and unstable place for American personnel. Even though Afghan troops have assumed the lead combat role throughout the country, with U.S. troops in an advisory role, Americans still face real dangers and have taken recent casualties there.

In some cases, senior U.S. officials have been surprised by the Taliban comeback in the past year. Emboldened by the departure of most foreign forces, Taliban fighters have seized district centers, inflicted heavy losses on government forces and temporarily overrun a provincial capital. Now, Afghan forces must also grapple with an aggressive local branch of the Islamic State.

Some officials hold out hope that a long-term military presence might be unnecessary, if hoped-for peace talks with the Taliban make progress. The Afghan government has asked Pakistan, home to many Taliban leaders, to push the militants into talks.

A generational U.S. footprint “doesn’t need to be the case,” said Jeff Eggers, a former senior White House official with long experience working on Afghanistan and Pakistan. “The Korea model is not necessary if the peace process moves forward — that’s the preferred path for all parties.”

The obstacles to peace talks, though, are huge. Senior officials in Kabul and Islamabad, Pakistan, are riven by suspicion, and the Taliban remains deeply fractured following the revelation that its longtime leader, Mohammad Omar, has been dead for more than two years.

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2023 marred by ‘tremendous challenges’ for Afghanistan

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(Last Updated On: April 18, 2024)

Last year, 2023, was a year of “tremendous challenges” for the people of Afghanistan, but it was also a year marked by resilience and determination, the Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Indrika Ratwatte, said in the UN’s annual report on Afghanistan that was published this week.

Ratwatte said: “In the face of adversity and multiple concurrent shocks, the people of Afghanistan have demonstrated remarkable courage and strength.”

Afghans now mention access to food as their most pressing need, he said adding that “unable to pay for or produce basic sustenance, millions face hunger and malnutrition.”

In 2024, an estimated 15.8 million people will experience crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity.

The majority of the population is unable to procure basic needs such as healthcare, food, livelihoods, and housing, the report stated.

The UN found that the country also remains vulnerable to climate change.

Following the worst drought in three decades, emerging El Niño conditions now threaten a new cycle of flooding and crop pests. In this context, lifesaving humanitarian aid has been crucial in preventing the collapse of the social fabric. It has also served to underpin the stability of the economy. Despite growing humanitarian needs, relevant funding cuts have forced humanitarian actors to prioritize the most vulnerable further, the report stated.

A Gallup poll found that 95 percent of the population consider themselves to be suffering. In addition to living in poverty, the average life expectancy in Afghanistan has been falling for the past five years.

The Herat earthquakes and unprecedented large-scale returns of refugees from neighbouring countries, including Pakistan and Iran, have shown the disruptive impact of recurrent shocks and underscored the need for sustained international engagement and support, the UN stated.

“As we embark on the next chapter, in 2024, it is imperative that we remain steadfast in our commitment to the principles of human rights, gender equality, and women’s Empowerment,” Ratwatte said.

“We will continue to include women as key partners in our work, to provide assistance ‘by women, for women’, and to tirelessly work for equal access to education in line with the demands we hear from Afghans in all areas of the country,” he said.

However, from an economic point of view, Afghanistan’s economy appears to be stabilizing at a low equilibrium level following a period of significant contraction since 2021.

The UN said in the report that growth barriers include severely restricted operations in the banking sector (including microfinance institutions), trade disruptions, and institutional issues hindering service delivery, including in the private sector.

“The sudden cessation of a significant amount of international aid and grants, which had accounted for 40 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), along with a freeze on international reserves amounting to about US$9 billion and the imposition of international sanctions, caused a severe balance of payments, banking and payment systems crisis.

“Notably, financial restrictions have removed liquidity from the banking system,” the report stated.

Despite the crisis and a period of devaluation towards the end of the year, the AFN is 20 percent stronger than it was in 2021 due to currency export controls, UN cash shipments of US dollars into Afghanistan, and personalremittances.

Imports continued to surpass exports through 2023 and increased as the economy contracted.

“This appears to be a paradox: the currency appreciated while the trade deficit widened, suggesting that there might be other unidentified sources of financing besides US dollar cash shipments and remittances to support the account deficits,” the report read.

The UN also said that with its partners, it will work to initiate a dialogue with the Islamic Emirate on adjustments to regulatory frameworks and sustained public service delivery with the aim of creating a long-term and sustainable pathway to reduce aid dependency and put Afghanistan back on a path towards development

“In this regard, we reiterate our offer to the DFA for a dialogue and will work jointly with international partners, donors, and Afghans on how such engagement can be structured in a most productive way.”

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Beijing hosts Afghan delegation for talks on a wide range of issues

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(Last Updated On: April 18, 2024)

The third meeting of the China-Afghanistan working-level liaison mechanism on humanitarian assistance and economic reconstruction was held in Beijing this week where in-depth talks were held on numerous issues relating to Afghanistan.

Liu Jinson, Director of the Asian Department of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Jalali, Director of the Third Political Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, co-chaired the Beijing meeting.

Also in attendance were representatives from various Chinese commissions, government departments, international aid organizations, as well as the Afghan Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, the Ministry of Disaster Management, and the Ministry of Refugee Affairs.

Quoting an Afghan proverb, Liu said at the meeting that “friends come and go, but neighbors always remain.”

He pointed out that since 2021, China has implemented a diplomatic concept of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness that was proposed by President Xi Jinping in terms of Beijing’s dealings with Afghanistan.

China has also adhered to a friendly policy towards all Afghan people, and adhered to the principle of respect for the country’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
He also said that during the different regimes in Afghanistan, China has always provided support and assistance for Afghanistan’s peaceful reconstruction and economic development.

The Afghan delegation meanwhile stated that the Islamic Emirate attaches great importance to developing relations with China, and thanked China for taking the lead in sending a new ambassador to Afghanistan and accepting the appointment of an ambassador to China.

The Islamic Emirate said Afghanistan is willing to deepen friendly relations with China, maintain traditional friendship, and will, as always, support China in safeguarding its core interests and achieving national reunification.

The two sides agreed in the meeting that Afghanistan is currently facing multiple challenges such as floods, droughts, and refugee resettlement, among other issues.

They also noted that the freezing of Afghanistan’s foreign assets by the United States has “aggravated the suffering of the Afghan people.”

The IEA stated however that it was “very grateful to China for its humanitarian assistance over the years and hopes to continue to receive help from China in refugee resettlement, disaster prevention and mitigation, improvement of medical and health conditions, and treatment of children with congenital heart disease.”

On the Belt and Road initiative, the IEA delegation said Afghanistan is deeply satisfied with the progress in practical cooperation between the two countries. They also said Afghanistan is willing to learn from China’s experience in modernization and development, and hopes that China will help Afghanistan cultivate more professional talents.

China meanwhile urged the international community to step up humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, and said Beijing hopes the IEA will “actively respond to some of the international community’s reasonable concerns about Afghanistan’s inclusive governance.”

Liu in turn acknowledged the IEA’s efforts to promote economic reconstruction and said bilateral trade volume between China and Afghanistan reached US$1.33 billion last year, a record high and a year-on-year increase of 125.4%.

The Islamic Emirate meanwhile said in posts on X that the issue of investment opportunities in Afghanistan was widely discussed and both sides welcomed moves to pave the way for the export of pomegranates.

“Also, both sides talked about the latest developments in increasing the level of oil extraction in Afghanistan and starting the extraction of Logar’s Mes Aynak mine and it was emphasized that plans should be considered to speed things up,” the IEA stated.

“The Afghan side welcomed the capacity building training programs of civil servants in many ministries and agencies of the Afghan government with the support of China. In addition, the Chinese side promised to expand the range of scholarships to Afghan students according to the needs of Afghanistan,” the IEA stated.

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UN builds 470km of water canals in Afghanistan in past year

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(Last Updated On: April 18, 2024)

The United Nations has built 470 kilometers of much needed water canals in Afghanistan in the past year in cooperation with local communities, the World Food Program (WFP) confirmed.

WFP in Afghanistan said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday that the canals were built in order to provide access to water to more people across the country.

The agency said the people “in Afghanistan cannot continue their lives without access to water,” adding that the canals help farmers irrigate crops, which allows them to feed their families and sell surplus produce.

This comes after years of drought across the country. However, in the past few months, good rain has been recorded which will hopefully result in good harvests this year.

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