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UNDP warns Afghan economy to contract by 6% due to COVID-19

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United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Afghanistan launched its latest COVID-19 impact assessment report on Wednesday and said the pandemic has set back Afghanistan’s economic growth by several years.

The report, the 4th since the coronavirus outbreak, exposed structural and resource gaps in responding to unforeseen events such as pandemics. The country had to reallocate resources from long-term development priorities to fighting this health crisis.

In a statement issued by the UNDP, the organization said the report, titled “Fiscal Options in Response to Coronavirus Crisis”, focused on the fiscal implications of COVID-19.

The UNDP stated it estimates that due to a combination of external and internal shocks, the Afghan economy will contract by around six percent in 2020.

“Assuming the recovery starts in 2021 and growth performance to be positive between 2021 and 2024, it will be moderate, and well below the pre-pandemic level.

“Without well thought-out recovery-oriented policies, this amounts to a cumulative loss of around 12.5 percent in real GDP by 2024,” read the statement.

UNDP said Afghanistan witnessed a sharp decline in revenues in 2020 due to low economic activity, trade disruption and weaker compliance brought on by the pandemic.

“The government had to adjust the revenue estimates downwards from Afs 209 billion (US$2.71 billion) in 2019 to Afs 144 billion (US$1.87 billion) during the mid-year budget review.”

UNDP stated it estimated an average of 17 percent decline in corporate tax revenue and 18 percent decline in personal income tax revenue.

“Tax on international trade will be the worst hit and revenues may decline to as low as 19 percent due to the decrease in imports, while tax revenue on goods and services might decline by 10 percent,” the statement read.

Meanwhile, UNDP stated the fiscal deficit is expected to increase to around four percent of GDP in 2020.

“The Government of Afghanistan needs to opt for policies and programmes to generate more revenue to address the fiscal deficit.

“Given the economic slowdown, a second wave of the pandemic, continued conflict, and an uncertain peace process and political environment, the country will continue to need grant support from the international community to address the fiscal deficit and maintain its current level of expenditure on basic services,” read the UNDP’s statement.

The organization also stated that additional grants need to be directed at driving and implementing reforms to improve the business regulatory environment, improve governance, encourage investment and strengthen the private sector.

According to the statement, the UNDP and other stated along with other international development partners, it would continue to support Afghanistan in the run up to the donor pledging conference later this month.

However they urged the Afghan government to address the immediate fiscal impact of the pandemic and help reverse its negative effects.

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Mullah Baradar inaugurates a blanket factory in Kabul

About 930 million Afghanis have been invested in the factory and it currently has the capacity to produce 1000 blankets per day.

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Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the economic deputy prime minister, on Sunday inaugurated a blanket factory in Pul-e-Charkhi industrial area in Kabul city.

Speaking at the inauguration ceremony, Baradar said that with the provision of overall security in the country and the reduction of corruption, a favorable environment for medium and small investments has been created.

He added that the Islamic Emirate continues to support domestic industries by implementing effective import substitution policies, which plays an important role in strengthening the country's national economy.

Baradar stated that in order to support domestic industries, heavy-duty machines worth 100 million afghanis ($1.4 million) were purchased for the newly established blanket factory based on the Islamic Murabaha Islamic financing structure.

Murabaha is a sales contract where the buyer and seller agree on the markup or "cost-plus" price for the item being sold.

Baradar also mentioned that the Islamic Emirate seeks to reduce dependence on foreign imports by increasing the level of investment.

He called businessmen and investors to invest inside Afghanistan for the economic growth of the country.

According to Baradar’s office, the newly established blanket factory uses domestically sourced raw materials including wool and cotton, which will help increase job opportunities in addition to strengthening the livestock and agriculture sector.

About 930 million afghanis has been invested in the factory and it currently has the capacity to produce 1,000 blankets per day.

The factory has employed about 900 people.

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Trade volume between Kabul-Tehran has reached over $1.8 billion: MoIC

Afghanistan News: Iranian officials also stated that since the beginning of this year, the export of non-oil goods to Afghanistan has increased to $1.3 billion

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Ministry of Industry and Commerce (MoIC) says the trade volume between Afghanistan and Iran has reached more than $1.8 billion over the past seven months of 1403 [solar year].

The ministry's spokesman Abdulsalam Jawad Akhundzada said these trades include oil and non-oil goods.

According to Jawad Akhundzada, trade and transit with Iran is expanding.

“Afghanistan's trade with Iran during the seven months of 1403 was worth $1 billion 827 million dollars, of which 30 million dollars were exports and $1 billion 797 million dollars were imports,” said Akhundzada.

“Most of the major export goods are mineral stones, raisins, all kinds of soft drinks and sesame seeds, and the main import items are diesel fuel, petrol, raw materials for manufacturing, liquid gas and cement,” he added.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials also stated that since the beginning of this year, the export of non-oil goods to Afghanistan has increased to 1.3 billion dollars.

Tehran Times newspaper quoted the Iranian customs officials and reported that Afghanistan was Iran's fifth largest importer of non-oil products in the last seven months.

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Afghanistan-India trade volume totals $650 million so far this year

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Trade between Afghanistan and India totals $650 million in the first 10 months of this year, the Islamic Emirate’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce announced this weekend.

In a post on X on Saturday, the ministry’s spokesman Abdulsalam Jawad Akhundzada said $477 million in exports and $203 million in imports were recorded this year.

He said Afghanistan’s main exports to India included dried figs, raisins, saffron, green cumin, and almonds.

According to Akhundzada, the main items imported from India over the past 10 months were sugar, raw materials for industrial factories, new clothing, and roasted chickpeas.

Just last week, JP Singh, Indian foreign ministry’s joint secretary for the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran division, visited Kabul and met with Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

The two sides discussed political and economic relations between Afghanistan and India, and people's movements, the Afghan foreign ministry said in a statement.

Muttaqi expressed hope that relations between India and Afghanistan would expand in various fields. He stressed that to develop trade relations, Indian visa facilities should be increased for Afghan citizens, especially businesspersons.

According to the statement, JP Singh said that relations with Afghanistan are important for India and have an ancient history.

The Indian diplomat said that along with humanitarian aid to Afghans, India has also started development assistance to Afghanistan and is engaged in technical discussions with relevant Afghan institutions.

JP Singh stressed that in the near future, negotiations will be held between technical delegations of regional countries including Afghanistan and India on the Chabahar port.

He also promised to increase Indian visa facilities for Afghans.

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