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Turkey faces election runoff, Erdogan seen with momentum

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President Tayyip Erdogan led comfortably on Monday after the first round of Turkey's presidential election, with his rival facing an uphill struggle to prevent the president extending his rule into a third decade in a runoff vote on May 28, Reuters reported.

Turkish assets weakened on the news, which showed Erdogan only just below the 50% threshold needed to avoid sending the NATO-member country to a second round of a presidential election viewed as passing judgment on his autocratic rule.

Erdogan's People's Alliance, comprising his Islamist-rooted AK Party and its nationalist partners, also appeared set to win a majority in Turkey's new parliament with 321 of the 600 seats, further boosting his chances in the presidential runoff.

"The winner has undoubtedly been our country," Erdogan said in a speech to cheering supporters at the AKP headquarters in the capital Ankara overnight.

With most votes counted in the presidential contest, Erdogan had 49.51% and his main opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu 44.88%, High Election Board chairman Ahmet Yener told reporters. Turnout was a very high 88.8%, read the report.

Further boosting Erdogan's prospects, nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who placed third in Sunday's election, told Reuters in an interview he would only endorse Kilicdaroglu in the runoff if the latter ruled out any concessions to a pro-Kurdish party, parliament's third largest.

That party, the HDP, backs Kilicdaroglu but is accused of ties to Kurdish militants, which it denies.

The 2.8 million voters who backed Ogan in the first round could prove crucial for Kilicdaroglu if he is to defeat Erdogan.

Opinion polls had shown Erdogan, 69, trailing Kilicdaroglu, but the outcome suggested that the president and his AK Party were able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis and soaring inflation, Reuters reported.

Kilicdaroglu, head of a six-party alliance, vowed to prevail in the runoff and accused Erdogan's party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results. He called on his supporters to be patient, but they were downcast on Monday.

"We are sad, we are depressed about the whole situation. We expected different results," said commuter Volkan Atilgan as he sat near a ferry station in Istanbul. "God willing, we will win this victory in the second round."

By contrast, Erdogan supporters were jubilant as the results filtered out, with cyber security engineer Feyyaz Balcu, 23, confident that Erdogan could fix Turkey's economic woes.

"It is very important for all Turkish people that Erdogan wins the elections. He is a world leader and all the Turks and Muslims want Erdogan as president," he said.

The prospect of five more years of Erdogan's rule will upset civil rights activists campaigning for reforms to undo the damage they say he has done to Turkey's democracy. He says he respects democracy.

Thousands of political prisoners and activists could be released if the opposition prevails, Reuters reported.

Stocks fell, the lira was near a two-month low, sovereign dollar bonds fell and the cost of insuring exposure to Turkey's debt spiked. Analysts voiced concern about the uncertainty and diminishing prospects of a return to economic policy orthodoxy.

"Erdogan has now a clear psychological lead against the opposition," said Teneo co-president Wolfango Piccoli. "Erdogan will likely double down on his national security focused narratives over the next two weeks."

The election has been closely watched in Europe, Washington, Moscow, and across the region, where Erdogan has asserted Turkish power while strengthening ties to Russia and putting strain on Ankara's traditional alliance with the United States, Reuters reported.

Erdogan has cordial relations with President Vladimir Putin and his strong showing is likely to encourage the Kremlin but unnerve the Biden administration, as well as many European and leaders who had troubled ties with Erdogan.

White House spokesperson John Kirby said President Joe Biden was looking forward to working with whoever won the vote. The Kremlin said it expected Russia's cooperation with Turkey to continue and deepen whoever wins.

Analysts saw Middle Eastern governments preferring continuity over change after Erdogan's showing, regarding him as part of an acceptable status quo in a tumultuous region.

The opposition had expected to benefit from voter anger at economic woes after an unorthodox policy of low interest rates triggered a lira crisis and soaring inflation. A slow government response to earthquakes that killed 50,000 people in February had also been expected to influence voters.

Kilicdaroglu, 74, has pledged to revive democracy after years of state repression, return to orthodox economic policies, empower institutions that lost autonomy under Erdogan and rebuild frail ties with the West, read the report.

The political uncertainty is expected to weigh on financial markets over the next two weeks. The lira stood at 19.67 to the dollar at 1348 GMT, after reaching 19.70 in earlier trading, its weakest since a record low of 19.80 hit in March.

The cost of insuring against Turkey defaulting on its sovereign debts surged to a six-month high, jumping 105 basis points (bps) from Friday's levels to 597 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Reuters reported.

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ICC issues arrest warrants for Israel’s Netanyahu, Gallant and Hamas leader

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Judges at the International Criminal Court have issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defence chief, as well as a Hamas leader, Ibrahim Al-Masri, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, Reuters reported on Thursday afternoon.

The move comes after the ICC prosecutor Karim Khan announced on May 20, that he was seeking arrest warrants for alleged crimes connected to the Oct.7, 2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas and the Israeli military response in Gaza.

The ICC said Israel's acceptance of the court's jurisdiction was not required.

Israel has rejected the jurisdiction of the Hague-based court and denies war crimes in Gaza.

Israel has said it killed Al-Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, in an airstrike but Hamas has neither confirmed nor denied this.

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US vetoes UN Security Council resolution on Gaza ceasefire

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The United States on Wednesday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza, drawing criticism of the Biden administration for once again blocking international action aimed at halting Israel's war with Hamas.

The 15-member council voted on a resolution put forward by 10 non-permanent members that called for an "immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire" in the 13-month conflict and separately demanded the release of hostages, Reuters reported.

Only the U.S. voted against, using its veto as a permanent council member to block the resolution.

Robert Wood, deputy U.S. ambassador to the U.N., said Washington had made clear it would only support a resolution that explicitly calls for the immediate release of hostages as part of a ceasefire.

"A durable end to the war must come with the release of the hostages. These two urgent goals are inextricably linked. This resolution abandoned that necessity, and for that reason, the United States could not support it," he said.

Wood said the U.S. had sought compromise, but the text of the proposed resolution would have sent a "dangerous message" to Hamas that "there's no need to come back to the negotiating table."

Israel's campaign in Gaza has killed nearly 44,000 people and displaced nearly all the enclave's population at least once. It was launched in response to an attack by Hamas-led fighters who killed 1,200 people and captured more than 250 hostages in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

Members roundly criticized the U.S. for blocking the resolution put forward by the council's 10 elected members: Algeria, Ecuador, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Switzerland.

"It is deeply regretted that due to the use of the veto this council has once again failed to uphold its responsibility to maintain international peace and security," Malta's U.N. Ambassador Vanessa Frazier said after the vote failed, adding that the text of the resolution "was by no means a maximalist one."

"It represented the bare minimum of what is needed to begin to address the desperate situation on the ground," she said.

Food security experts have warned that famine is imminent among Gaza's 2.3 million people.

U.S. President Joe Biden, who leaves office on Jan. 20, has offered Israel strong diplomatic backing and continued to provide arms for the war, while trying unsuccessfully to broker a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that would see hostages released in exchange for Palestinians held by Israel.

After blocking earlier resolutions on Gaza, Washington in March abstained from a vote that allowed a resolution to pass demanding an immediate ceasefire.

A senior U.S. official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity ahead of Wednesday's vote, said Britain had put forward new language that the U.S. would have supported as a compromise, but that was rejected by the elected members.

Some members were more interested in bringing about a U.S. veto than compromising on the resolution, the official said, accusing U.S. adversaries Russia and China of encouraging those members.

'GREEN LIGHT'

France's ambassador Nicolas de Riviere said the resolution rejected by the U.S. "very firmly" required the release of hostages.

"France still has two hostages in Gaza, and we deeply regret that the Security Council was not able to formulate this demand," he said.

China's U.N. ambassador, Fu Cong, said each time the United States had exercised its veto to protect Israel, the number of people killed in Gaza had steadily risen.

"How many more people have to die before they wake up from their pretend slumber?" he asked.

"Insistence on setting a precondition for ceasefire is tantamount to giving the green light to continue the war and condoning the continued killing."

Israel's U.N. ambassador Danny Danon said ahead of the vote the text was not a resolution for peace but was "a resolution for appeasement" of Hamas.

"History will remember who stood with the hostages and who abandoned them," Danon said.

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US imposes sanctions on senior Hamas officials

“Treasury remains committed to disrupting Hamas’s efforts to secure additional revenue and holding those who facilitate the group’s terrorist activities to account.”

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The U.S. on Tuesday imposed sanctions on six senior Hamas officials, the U.S. Treasury Department said, further action against the Palestinian militant group as Washington has sought to achieve a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza, Reuters reported.

The Treasury Department said in a statement the sanctions targeted the group's representatives abroad, a senior member of the Hamas military wing and those involved in supporting fundraising efforts for the group and weapons smuggling into Gaza.

"Hamas continues to rely on key officials who seemingly maintain legitimate, public-facing roles within the group, yet who facilitate their terrorist activities, represent their interests abroad, and coordinate the transfer of money and goods into Gaza," Treasury's Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Bradley Smith, said in the statement.

"Treasury remains committed to disrupting Hamas's efforts to secure additional revenue and holding those who facilitate the group’s terrorist activities to account."

Hamas condemned the sanctions in a statement that called on the U.S. administration to "review this criminal policy and stop its blind bias towards the terrorist occupation entity."

Among those targeted was Abd al-Rahman Ismail abd al-Rahman Ghanimat, a longtime member of Hamas's military wing who is now based in Turkey, the Treasury said, accusing him of being involved in multiple attempted and successful terrorist attacks, read the report.

Two other officials based in Turkey, a member based in Gaza who has participated in Hamas's engagements with Russia and a leader authorized to speak publicly on behalf of the group and who previously oversaw border crossings at Gaza were also among those targeted, according to the Treasury.

The statement by Hamas said: "The Treasury Department's lists are based on misleading and false statements and foundations aimed at distorting the image of the movement's leaders ... while ignoring the imposition of sanctions on the occupation leaders who commit the most heinous war crimes."

The U.S. on Monday warned Turkey against hosting Hamas leadership, saying Washington does not believe leaders of a terrorist organization should be living comfortably.

Asked about reports that some Hamas leaders had moved to Turkey from Qatar, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller did not confirm the reports but said he was not in a position to dispute them. He said Washington will make clear to Turkey's government that there can be no more business as usual with Hamas, Reuters reported.

Hamas-led gunmen attacked Israel in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

More than 43,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza over the past year, Palestinian health officials say, and Gaza has been reduced to a wasteland of wrecked buildings and piles of rubble, where more than two million Gazans are seeking shelter in makeshift tents and facing shortages of food and medicines.

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