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Traders expect Pakistan’s Rupee to lose ground in coming week

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Traders expect the Pakistani rupee to weaken further in the coming week owing to a sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves brought on by fresh repayments of external debt.

Traders say this is causing concern for investors who are worried about how the country’s economic situation will develop.

“We expect the rupee to depreciate much further during the course of the upcoming week due to declining foreign reserves and repayment of foreign loans. Any developments on the IMF (International Monetary Fund) front are being eagerly watched by the market,” a forex trader said.

The local currency closed at 226.94 against the US dollar on Monday while it ended the week at 227.14 against the dollar on Friday.

Pakistan paid back $600 million to the Emirates NBD Bank and $420 million to the Dubai Islamic Bank, causing the State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) reserves to fall to a critically low level of $4.5 billion.

The coming week is turning out to be significant for Pakistan’s economy as a donors’ conference is set to begin on Monday, January 9, which will be led by the US in partnership with Pakistan to garner support for post-flood aid, according to Geo TV.

Currently, Pakistan’s chief of army staff is visiting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Experts have said “no one is second guessing what this trip is about.”

Meanwhile, the delay in IMF funding of $1.1 billion has made Pakistan struggle to allay default fears.

Islamabad and the IMF differ over a review of policy and reforms the Fund is requiring in the country. The IMF’s programe review was supposed to be finished in November, Geo TV reported.

The IMF programe is connected to another essential foreign financing, making it difficult for the country to meet its external funding requirements. Up until June, they amounted to more than $30 billion and included imports, especially energy, and debt repayments.

The decline in the forex reserves put pressure on the rupee owing to the government’s slow progress in rolling over and securing foreign inflows from international lenders.

Given that elections are slated to take place this year, the government keeps delaying the IMF's requirements out of concern for further political capital loss.

The local currency has lost 28.3% of its value against the dollar in 2022.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has assured that the government would complete the IMF programe.

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Iran’s non-oil exports to Afghanistan rise by 31% this solar year

Iran’s imports from Afghanistan also rose sharply, totalling over $33 million, a 192% increase in this period

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Iran's non-oil exports to Afghanistan surged by 31% in the first half of this solar year (April to September 2024), totalling over $1.77 billion.

According to Iran’s trade association in Afghanistan, both the value and volume of non-oil exports to Afghanistan saw substantial growth. 

Statistics provided by the association indicate that nearly 560,000 tons of Iranian goods, including iron, steel, cement, eggs, and potatoes, were exported to Afghanistan during this period.

Iran’s imports from Afghanistan also rose sharply, totalling over $33 million, a 192% increase in this period. 

The primary exports to Iran included barley, corn, peanuts, and chilies.

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Private sectors of Afghanistan, Kazakhstan sign contracts worth $100 million

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Private sectors of Afghanistan and Kazakhstan have signed contracts worth $100 million during the visit of an Afghan delegation to Almaty recently, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) announced on Thursday.

The agreements include the export of more than 2,000 tons of dried fruit, the export of fresh fruit, including pomegranates, and the export of cotton, Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Islamic Emirate, said on X.

Mujahid said that the Islamic Emirate delegation during its recent visit to Kazakhstan signed a "road map of cooperation between Afghanistan and Kazakhstan in the fields of trade, industry, mining, energy, logistics, agriculture, telecommunications, health, higher education and humanitarian aid.”

He said Kazakhstan also assured that it would provide more facilities for the transit of Afghan goods to China and other countries through Kazakhstan.

The allocation of an area "as a logistics center for Afghan goods" in the port of Khargos was also part of the agreement between the two sides to facilitate the unloading and loading of Afghan traders' goods.

The spokesman of the Islamic Emirate also said that Kazakhstan will participate in the construction of the Torghundi-Herat, Kandahar-Spin Boldak and Mazar-e-Sharif-Kharlachi railway projects.

Mujahid added that Kazakhstan will also participate in the establishment of a trade and transit center in Herat province, which will be used to store and finance trade and transit goods. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has agreed to establish permanent expo centers for the sale of Afghan goods in various cities of Kazakhstan.

It is worth mentioning that the delegation of the Islamic Emirate led by Nooruddin Azizi, Acting Minister of Industry and Commerce, participated in the three-day exhibition of Afghanistan's domestic products, which was launched on October 21 in Almaty.

The Ministry of Industry and Commerce recently announced that 23 tons of pomegranates from Kandahar province were exported to Almaty through the port of Torghundi.

 

 

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China resumes direct rail trade with Afghanistan

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China resumed its direct freight rail services to Afghanistan on Thursday when a train loaded with goods left Nantong city in Jiangsu province.

The train, carrying commercial goods in 55 wagons, is heading for the northern Hairatan border in Balkh province, Yue Xiaoyong, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Special Representative for Afghanistan, said in a post on X.

Nantong is a central hub of the Belt and Road Initiative and is located north of Shanghai.

The resumption of the rail line was marked at a formal ceremony on Thursday with Yue and Bilal Karimi, the Afghan Ambassador to China, in attendance.

This comes after China recently announced plans to lift customs tariffs on Afghan exports to China by the end of this year, further strengthening trade ties between the two nations.

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