Business

SIGAR issues pessimistic economic forecast for Afghanistan

Published

4 years ago

February 20, 2022

Afghanistan’s economy suffered severe contraction in 2021, with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and IMF estimating up to a 20–30 percent drop, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported.

According to SIGAR’s latest report, annual per capita income is estimated to have fallen from $650 in 2012, to $500 in 2020, and is expected to drop to $350 by 2022.

SIGAR stated that male unemployment in Afghanistan may nearly double from 15.2 percent in 2019 to 29 percent by 2022.

“In the worst-case scenario modeled by the Asian Development Bank, unemployment could increase by more than 40 percent in the short run and household consumption could contract by 44 percent,” read the report.

The devaluation of the afghani has also impacted the Afghan economy and further diminished Afghan households’ ability to purchase food and
other necessary items, because much foreign trade was settled in US dollars.

Since August last year, the afghani has depreciated against the US dollar, from approximately 77 afghani to the dollar to around 105 as of January
2, 2022.

SIGAR also reported that adding to the pressure on the country’s limited cash reserves, Afghanistan lacks the technical capabilities to print its own currency.
According to SIGAR, the IEA has not yet secured or developed a domestic printing source for afghani banknotes.

SIGAR reported that Afghanistan’s largely cash-based economy has continued to struggle with an acute cash shortage since November, which has limited day-to-day economic activities.

“Banks are at the center of a liquidity crisis, with lost access to international financing and depositors attempting to recover their funds,” read the report.

According to a UNDP report, Afghanistan’s banking system is in “existential crisis.” Total deposits had fallen to the equivalent of $2 billion as of
September 2021 from $2.8 billion the month.

As the Afghan economy has struggled to find areas of sustainable economic growth in recent years, the country has increasingly relied on remittances from Afghans working abroad, especially in neighboring Iran.

By 2019, remittances accounted for the equivalent of 4.3 percent of Afghanistan’s annual GDP, an increase from 1.2 percent in 2014, according to World Bank data.

However, officials from the UN’s International Organization for Migration estimate this figure could have been as high as 15–20 percent, given that many remittances are sent through the informal hawala money-transfer system.

According to officials at Médecins Sans Frontières, with the absence of a functioning banking sector, many NGOs have also been forced to rely on
hawalas to pay expenses within Afghanistan.

In November 2021, the IEA announced a complete ban on the use of foreign currency in Afghanistan, interfering with remittance activities and
worsening the country’s liquidity crisis.

However, SIGAR reported that indicators suggest that the currency ban is not being actively enforced against the US dollar, which continues to be widely used in Afghan markets.

Related Topics:#Income featured peace SIGAR

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Construction has already been completed in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Pakistan, while work continues in Afghanistan. According to officials, the Afghan segment is on track to be finalized by spring 2027, paving the way for full project operations later that summer.

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Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan agree on framework to boost trade and transit

Officials said the talks focused on easing the movement of goods, particularly Afghan export products destined for Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

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April 21, 2026

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Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have agreed to strengthen regional trade and transit cooperation following a high-level trilateral meeting held in Tashkent on the sidelines of the INNOPROM Central Asia expo.

Afghanistan’s Minister of Industry and Commerce Nuruddin Azizi met with Laziz Kudratov, Uzbekistan’s Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade, and Sanzhar Iskenderovich Asylkulov, Deputy Minister of Economy and Commerce of Kyrgyzstan, to discuss measures aimed at facilitating transit procedures, increasing trade volumes and expanding Afghan exports to Central Asian markets.

Officials said the talks focused on easing the movement of goods, particularly Afghan export products destined for Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the three sides agreed to establish a joint working group to oversee implementation of the proposed initiatives. They also reached agreement on Afghanistan’s membership in the exhibition platform.

The event brings together participants from across Central Asia, as well as Russia and Belarus, providing a platform for industrial cooperation and investment.

Officials say Afghanistan’s participation is expected to open new opportunities for local industries to showcase products and strengthen their presence in regional markets, while the agreement marks a step toward deeper economic integration and improved regional connectivity.

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Afghanistan showcases industry at key Central Asia expo

The exhibition brings together government officials, investors and manufacturers from across Central Asia and beyond, including participants from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Published

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April 20, 2026

Ariana News

Afghanistan is making a notable showing at the INNOPROM Central Asia, one of the region’s largest industrial platforms, as Minister of Industry and Commerce Nuruddin Azizi travels to Uzbekistan to attend the event.

It is aimed at promoting industrial development, showcasing advanced technologies and expanding regional investment cooperation.

According to Afghanistan’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce, more than 60 Afghan companies are taking part, representing sectors such as cotton, coal, pharmaceuticals and agricultural products.

Officials say the participation highlights efforts to strengthen trade ties and position Afghanistan as a growing economic partner in the region.

INNOPROM Central Asia is widely regarded as a key platform for fostering industrial collaboration and unlocking new investment opportunities across Central Asia.