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SIGAR finds single key factor to ANDSF collapse was withdrawal of US troops

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The United States’ Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has found that the single most important factor behind the Afghan National Defense and Security Force’s (ANDSF) collapse in August last year was the US’ decision to withdraw military forces and contractors from Afghanistan.

This decision was taken after the US signed an agreement in February 2020, under former president Donald Trumps administration, with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) - an agreement adhered to by President Joe Biden.

In their latest report, SIGAR stated that due to the ANDSF’s dependency on US military forces, these events destroyed ANDSF morale.

The ANDSF had long relied on the US military’s presence to protect against large-scale ANDSF losses, and Afghan troops saw the United States as a means of holding their government accountable for paying their salaries.

The US-IEA agreement made it clear that this was no longer the case, resulting in a sense of abandonment within the ANDSF and the Afghan population, SIGAR reported.

The agreement set in motion a series of events crucial to understanding the ANDSF’s collapse, SIGAR stated.

Among those included a drop in the number of US airstrikes; the fact that ANDSF remained reliant on the US military, especially as “the United States designed the ANDSF as a mirror image of US forces.

“This created long-term ANDSF dependencies. The United States created a combined arms military structure that required a high degree of professional military sophistication and leadership,” SIGAR stated adding that the ANDSF had stockpiles of US-provided weapons and supplies, but did not have the logistics capabilities to move these items quickly enough to meet operational demands and had to rely on a thinly-stretched Afghan Air Force to do so.

“As a result, ANDSF units complained that they did not have enough ammunition, food, water, or other military equipment to sustain military engagements against the Taliban (IEA).

“Additionally, the Afghan government failed to develop a national security strategy and plan for nationwide security following the withdrawal of US forces,” SIGAR stated adding that instead, former president Ashraf Ghani frequently changed ANDSF leaders and appointed loyalists, while marginalizing well-trained ANDSF officers aligned with the United States.

The constant turnover weakened military chains of command, trust, and morale in the ANDSF. “Young, welltrained, educated, and professional ANDSF officers who grew up under US tutelage were marginalized and their ties to the U.S. became a liability.”

SIGAR also stated that the United States created more long-term dependencies by providing the ANDSF with advanced military equipment that they could not sustain and that required a US military or contractor presence and that the US lacked any real way to measure the ANDSF’s development.

“The metrics DOD used were inconsistent and unable to measure the development of ANDSF capabilities and capacities over time,” SIGAR stated.

SIGAR also stated that while ANDSF members have either left Afghanistan, or are in hiding, there are those who “have joined extremist groups in Afghanistan.”

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Mujahid says IEA stands with media outlets

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The Islamic Emirate’s spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid says the acting government is committed to supporting media outlets and they can operate within the framework of Islamic Sharia and national interests.

Marking World Television Day on Thursday, November 21, Mujahid said: “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan supports the media in general. Media can operate within the framework of Islamic Sharia and national interests.”

“As far as we are able, we cooperate with the media and the Afghan media currently have publications and they are broadcasting their publications well,” he added.

The United Nations General Assembly named November 21 as World Television Day in 1996.

“Since IEA’s takeover, of 184 national and local televisions, 57 television stations were shut down due to economic problems,” said Hojatullah Mujadadi, the head of Afghanistan Free Journalists' Association (AFJU).

Currently, about 370 visual, audio and print media are active in the country.

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Baradar says water crisis has negatively impacted relations between nations

Baradar expressed regret that although Afghanistan has vast water resources, effective and professional management has not been carried out in this area.

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Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, said on Thursday that the ongoing water crisis in the country has not only made neighboring countries face the problem of water scarcity, but it has also had a negative impact on political and economic relations between Afghanistan and these countries.

Speaking at a seminar held by the Ministry of Energy and Water, Baradar said that although water is a renewable natural resource, the shortage of water due to climate change, the increase in the level of water pollution, the growing demand of the people and its excessive consumption affects the country.

He expressed regret that although Afghanistan has vast water resources, effective and professional management has not been carried out in this area.

“It is now the responsibility of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to fulfill its national duty for the optimal management of the country’s water resource,” Baradar said.

“With firm determination, we aim to use all available means to ensure sustainable development in water management.”

Last month, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) also warned that Afghanistan is experiencing a severe water crisis, and if no action is taken, Kabul’s underground water resources could be depleted by 2030.

In a message on X, UNICEF reported that Roza Otunbayeva, head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), and Tajudeen Oyewale, head of UNICEF Afghanistan, visited a Kabul district to assess the city's water supply network.

Both officials expressed concern over the worsening water shortage problem in the capital.

"Water is life," UNICEF stated, emphasizing that rapid urbanization and climate change are accelerating the depletion of groundwater in Kabul.

“If we don't act now, we cannot stop this process."

The rapid population growth, unplanned construction of high-rise buildings, urban development without proper planning, and the excessive use of underground water resources are major factors contributing to the decline in both the quantity and quality of groundwater in Kabul.

Although Kabul has faced water shortages for years, the crisis has become more severe in recent times.

However, the Islamic Emirate is making concerted efforts to resolve the problem and thwart the crisis.

Three weeks ago, the office of the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, said in a statement that plans to construct a total of 355 water reservoirs across the country were being implemented.

According to the statement, of the 355 dams, a number of them have already been completed and inaugurated while others are under construction.

Of these reservoirs, 138 are being constructed by the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock; 117 by the Ministry of Water and Energy; and 100 by the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development.

All of these dams are being funded by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the statement read.

The reservoirs are being constructed in numerous provinces to manage rainwater, prevent flooding, strengthen groundwater levels and for use by communities.

Iran’s water share

Late last year, Iranian Energy Minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian warned that if Afghanistan does not ensure Tehran receives its rightful amount of water from Helmand River, Iran will use legal and international means to resolve the problem.

Mehrabian stressed that Helmand River water is Iran's indisputable right, and that Iran takes the matter seriously.

“Water right is Iran's right and it is necessary to release it. Ensuring water rights is not optional, but it is mandatory based on the international treaty of 1351. Pursuing this matter is Iran's absolute right and we will not fail in this regard. The recent rains should cause the release of our water, and if not, we will take serious action based on international laws,” stressed Mehrabian.

At the time, the Islamic Emirate said it was committed to providing Iran with water from the Helmand River but due to drought, there is not enough water in the river to give Iran its share.

The Helmand River Water Treaty was signed between Afghanistan and Iran in 1973, according to which Iran has the right to receive 850 million cubic meters of water from Afghanistan annually.

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Pakistan rejects suggestion of appointing a new special envoy for Afghanistan

Islamabad however continues to accuse Afghanistan of providing safe havens to militant groups that target Pakistan, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

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Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch has dismissed rumors that Islamabad is considering appointing a new special representative for Afghanistan.

Baloch said on Thursday that there was no truth in these reports but that special envoys for Afghanistan from Russia and China had recently visited Pakistan and met with officials.

In August, Pakistan dismissed its special envoy to Afghanistan, Asif Durrani, and has not yet appointed a replacement.

Addressing a weekly briefing on Thursday, Baloch also raised the issue of militant groups in Afghanistan.

She also announced the latest data on Afghan refugees and said so far this year, Pakistan has expelled almost 800,000 undocumented migrants from the neighboring country.

She said the process still continues to ensure a "successful and smooth return" of illegal Afghan nationals.

"Since November 2023 to October 2024, so far 757,008 undocumented Afghans were sent back to Afghanistan," Baloch said, adding that the figure also includes those who returned voluntarily.

According to UN figures, some 1.3 million Afghans are registered refugees in Pakistan, while another 880,000 have legal status to stay.

Pakistan started its crackdown on all foreigners living in the country illegally late last year.

According to Islamabad, the rise in militant attacks led them to making this decision.

Islamabad however continues to accuse Afghanistan of providing safe havens to militant groups that target Pakistan, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

This claim has repeatedly been rejected by the Islamic Emirate, who state they will not allow any group to use Afghan soil against another country.

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