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Petraeus downbeat about Afghanistan’s future post pullout

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General David H. Petraeus, retired US Army general and former director of the CIA said on Saturday he fears the United States will come to regret their decision to withdraw all troops and warned of a possible civil war.

In an interview with VOA, Petraeus said despite measures being taken to mitigate risks by extremists from re-establishing safe havens in Afghanistan, he fears “that we will come to regret this because there could very well be the return of a sense of civil war, a reality of civil war.”

He said he sees “no willingness” on the Taliban’s part to commit to meaningful, verifiable and sustainable agreements “that would be necessary to enable some kind of sharing of power; some kind of again, diplomatic resolution of the issues and instead I see a Taliban who has gotten everything that they wanted from the negotiations.”

He stated the Taliban has gotten its leaders and fighters out of prison, under the Doha agreement signed between the United States and the Taliban in February last year.

“Now they are getting the U.S. to leave which then also means that our coalition partners leave,” and the foreign contractors who do the maintenance on military helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft for the Afghan defense force will also leave, he said.

He said based on this alone, one will see an erosion of security and the people will “fall back on their tribe, their ethnic group, their sectarian affiliation, their political party”.

“You may see again the kind of civil war that characterized the situation in Afghanistan after the collapse of the post-Soviet regime in Kabul which took place two or three years after the departure of Soviet forces and when the Soviet funding eventually ran out.”

But he said he had enormous admiration for the Afghan security forces who he said were fighting and dying for their country and for a democratically elected government.

“They’re fighting for a country that is very different from the one that the Taliban will establish if they are able to regain control of the country.”

He stated that should this happen, the Taliban would return Afghanistan to a “theoretic medieval government structure”.

But he said he hopes his fears are misplaced and that “this does not come to pass”.

Petraeus said he was concerned that foreign contractors might feel that once troops have withdrawn that security will not be adequate enough for them to remain, adding that he does “not see any willingness” on the Taliban’s part to “negotiate in good faith”.


He said he is aware that U.S. military commanders and American intelligence officers among other are working hard to identify ways to mitigate the risks of al-Qaeda or ISIS (Daesh) or other extremist group from establishing sanctuaries in Afghanistan,

He questioned however whether the U.S. would in fact get a base in a neighboring country stating that Pakistan has refused the request and so has Uzbekistan.

He pointed out that any flights out of bases in the Gulf states is a long commute - particularly for drones which he said had been the “unblinking eyes that were able to establish over so many areas in Afghanistan to identify when you see what could be extremist activity and the establishment of sanctuaries and
perhaps training bases and ranges and a variety of other facilities that might be the hub.”

He also said that the U.S. had destroyed on a number of occasions over the past 20 years attempts by al-Qaeda to re-establish bases in eastern Afghanistan and “more recently one down in southern Afghanistan, in Helmand province.”

This Petraeus said was “a bit of a surprise”.

However, he blamed the Taliban, the Haqqani network and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan for providing the grounds for terrorist organizations to establish themselves in Afghanistan.

Petraeus said it is these groups that are “eroding the security posture of Afghanistan, who are creating ungoverned spaces or spaces governed by the Taliban such as they are, and it is a fact that Islamist extremists will exploit ungoverned spaces anywhere in the Muslim world and that certainly includes Afghanistan.

He also said the U.S. has a “moral obligation” to Afghans who worked alongside American soldiers on the battlefield as interpreters, as well as those who played other roles, and said these people “and in many cases that of their family members” should be granted visas to live in the U.S.

He said while this is a long process, various options are being examined including some kind of real airlift of these individuals - even to a third Country where they could be processed.

“There is a recognition very much on Capitol Hill, certainly at the State Department in the Pentagon and increasingly in the White House that there is this moral obligation that we need to take care of those who did risk their lives as a result of what they did together with our forces.”

He said he thinks there will be some solution that will be forthcoming. “I just hope it is developed quickly enough so that we don't end up leaving many of them behind and not meeting that very important obligation that we have incurred.”

He said he hopes however that his worst fears are not realized and that his assessment is inaccurate and that the Afghan security forces continue to receive solid assistance from the U.S. and NATO allies, from diplomats and aid workers and other international organizations.

He also said he hopes the Afghan security forces show they can stand up to the Taliban on their own and that contractors stay on in Afghanistan to maintain the equipment and weapons systems.


Petraeus also stated he hopes the Taliban will eventually engage in “true negotiations” and be willing to compromise on some issues.

He said however he does not see “enormous leverage” for U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad’s continued diplomatic efforts “given that we have told the Taliban that we are leaving.”

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Canada sent 19 failed asylum seekers back to Afghanistan last year

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Canada's border guards sent 19 rejected Afghan asylum seekers back to the country last year despite Otawa’s Temporary Suspension of Removals (TSR) that has been in place for Afghan nationals since 1994.

CBC reported that none of the 19 Afghans had their cases rejected on the basis of safety or security risks. The border service did not however reveal further details.

The border agency said a TSR is meant to "halt removals to a country or place when general conditions, such as armed conflict or an environmental disaster, pose a risk to the entire civilian population."

It also said individuals who were found inadmissible "on grounds of criminality, serious criminality, international or human rights violations, organized crime, or security" can be removed despite a TSR, CBC reported.

The CBSA said the 19 who failed their refugee claims left Canada "voluntarily," and that the Afghans were "aware that they benefit from a stay of removal due to the Temporary Suspension of Removal on Afghanistan but requested to have their removal order enforced despite the legislative stay.

"In other words, the individual was advised that they can remain in Canada until the TSR is lifted and they opted to return to Afghanistan."

Canada has welcomed some 54,000 Afghans since August 2021, surpassing a commitment it made to bring in 40,000 in 2021.

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Trump team compiling list of military officers responsible for US withdrawal from Afghanistan

Trump has on a number of occasions condemned the withdrawal as a “humiliation” and “the most embarrassing day in the history of our country.” 

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The Trump transition team is compiling a list of senior current and former U.S. military officers who were directly involved in the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and exploring whether they could be court-martialed. 
 
NBC reported that the team working on the transition of power between President-elect Donald Trump and outgoing President Joe Biden are considering creating a commission to investigate the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.
 
Citing a US official and a person familiar with the plan, NBC stated a commission would then gather information about who was directly involved in the decision-making for the military, how it was carried out, and whether the military leaders could be eligible for charges as serious as treason.
 
“They’re taking it very seriously,” the person with knowledge of the plan said.
 
The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
 
Matt Flynn, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for counternarcotics and global threats, is helping lead the effort, the sources said. 
 
Trump has on a number of occasions condemned the withdrawal as a “humiliation” and “the most embarrassing day in the history of our country.” 
 
NBC reports however that it is not clear what would legally justify “treason” charges since the military officers were following the orders of President Joe Biden to withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan.
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Ottawa taking detention of Canadian in Afghanistan ‘very seriously’

Lavery helped an estimated 100 Afghans flee Kabul during the chaotic withdrawal of US and allied forces.

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The Canadian government is taking "very seriously" the detention in Afghanistan of a former member of Canada's elite special forces, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Saturday.

Retired soldier David Lavery, known in Kabul as Canadian Dave, was detained by the Islamic Emirate shortly after landing in Kabul on Monday, according to Canadian broadcaster CTV News.

His whereabouts are unknown, the outlet added, citing unnamed sources.

Asked about Lavery, Trudeau said: "I can first of all assure you that the Canadian government is taking very, very seriously the situation."

He also said consular assistance has been provided to Lavery's family.

Lavery helped an estimated 100 Afghans flee Kabul during the chaotic withdrawal of US and allied forces.

He spent decades in the Canadian military and is said to have been a key member of its elite Joint Task Force 2 special operations unit.

More recently, Lavery has reportedly operated a private security firm in Kabul.

The Islamic Emirate has not yet commented.

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