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Petraeus downbeat about Afghanistan’s future post pullout

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General David H. Petraeus, retired US Army general and former director of the CIA said on Saturday he fears the United States will come to regret their decision to withdraw all troops and warned of a possible civil war.

In an interview with VOA, Petraeus said despite measures being taken to mitigate risks by extremists from re-establishing safe havens in Afghanistan, he fears “that we will come to regret this because there could very well be the return of a sense of civil war, a reality of civil war.”

He said he sees “no willingness” on the Taliban’s part to commit to meaningful, verifiable and sustainable agreements “that would be necessary to enable some kind of sharing of power; some kind of again, diplomatic resolution of the issues and instead I see a Taliban who has gotten everything that they wanted from the negotiations.”

He stated the Taliban has gotten its leaders and fighters out of prison, under the Doha agreement signed between the United States and the Taliban in February last year.

“Now they are getting the U.S. to leave which then also means that our coalition partners leave,” and the foreign contractors who do the maintenance on military helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft for the Afghan defense force will also leave, he said.

He said based on this alone, one will see an erosion of security and the people will “fall back on their tribe, their ethnic group, their sectarian affiliation, their political party”.

“You may see again the kind of civil war that characterized the situation in Afghanistan after the collapse of the post-Soviet regime in Kabul which took place two or three years after the departure of Soviet forces and when the Soviet funding eventually ran out.”

But he said he had enormous admiration for the Afghan security forces who he said were fighting and dying for their country and for a democratically elected government.

“They’re fighting for a country that is very different from the one that the Taliban will establish if they are able to regain control of the country.”

He stated that should this happen, the Taliban would return Afghanistan to a “theoretic medieval government structure”.

But he said he hopes his fears are misplaced and that “this does not come to pass”.

Petraeus said he was concerned that foreign contractors might feel that once troops have withdrawn that security will not be adequate enough for them to remain, adding that he does “not see any willingness” on the Taliban’s part to “negotiate in good faith”.


He said he is aware that U.S. military commanders and American intelligence officers among other are working hard to identify ways to mitigate the risks of al-Qaeda or ISIS (Daesh) or other extremist group from establishing sanctuaries in Afghanistan,

He questioned however whether the U.S. would in fact get a base in a neighboring country stating that Pakistan has refused the request and so has Uzbekistan.

He pointed out that any flights out of bases in the Gulf states is a long commute - particularly for drones which he said had been the “unblinking eyes that were able to establish over so many areas in Afghanistan to identify when you see what could be extremist activity and the establishment of sanctuaries and
perhaps training bases and ranges and a variety of other facilities that might be the hub.”

He also said that the U.S. had destroyed on a number of occasions over the past 20 years attempts by al-Qaeda to re-establish bases in eastern Afghanistan and “more recently one down in southern Afghanistan, in Helmand province.”

This Petraeus said was “a bit of a surprise”.

However, he blamed the Taliban, the Haqqani network and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan for providing the grounds for terrorist organizations to establish themselves in Afghanistan.

Petraeus said it is these groups that are “eroding the security posture of Afghanistan, who are creating ungoverned spaces or spaces governed by the Taliban such as they are, and it is a fact that Islamist extremists will exploit ungoverned spaces anywhere in the Muslim world and that certainly includes Afghanistan.

He also said the U.S. has a “moral obligation” to Afghans who worked alongside American soldiers on the battlefield as interpreters, as well as those who played other roles, and said these people “and in many cases that of their family members” should be granted visas to live in the U.S.

He said while this is a long process, various options are being examined including some kind of real airlift of these individuals - even to a third Country where they could be processed.

“There is a recognition very much on Capitol Hill, certainly at the State Department in the Pentagon and increasingly in the White House that there is this moral obligation that we need to take care of those who did risk their lives as a result of what they did together with our forces.”

He said he thinks there will be some solution that will be forthcoming. “I just hope it is developed quickly enough so that we don't end up leaving many of them behind and not meeting that very important obligation that we have incurred.”

He said he hopes however that his worst fears are not realized and that his assessment is inaccurate and that the Afghan security forces continue to receive solid assistance from the U.S. and NATO allies, from diplomats and aid workers and other international organizations.

He also said he hopes the Afghan security forces show they can stand up to the Taliban on their own and that contractors stay on in Afghanistan to maintain the equipment and weapons systems.


Petraeus also stated he hopes the Taliban will eventually engage in “true negotiations” and be willing to compromise on some issues.

He said however he does not see “enormous leverage” for U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad’s continued diplomatic efforts “given that we have told the Taliban that we are leaving.”

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Russian law paves way to recognise Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

No country currently recognises the IEA government which regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021.

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Russia's parliament passed a law on Tuesday that would allow courts to suspend bans on groups designated by Moscow as terrorist organisations - paving the way for it to normalise ties with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan annd potentially with the new leadership of Syria.

No country currently recognises the IEA government which regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021.

But Russia has been gradually building ties with the Islamic Emirate, which President Vladimir Putin said in July was now an ally in fighting terrorism.

In addition, the leader of Russia's Muslim region of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, called on Monday for the removal of Syrian group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from Moscow's list of banned groups.

HTS spearheaded the toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad earlier this month.

Kadyrov, a close Putin ally, said Russia needed ties to the new Syrian authorities to ensure stability and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

The Kremlin said this week that Russia was in contact with the new leadership in Syria, where it hopes to retain the use of an airfield and a naval base that give it an important military foothold in the Mediterranean.

Security threat

Moscow sees a major security threat from Islamist militant groups based in a string of countries from Afghanistan to the Middle East, where Russia lost a major ally with the fall of Assad, Reuters reported.

In March, gunmen killed 145 people at a concert hall outside Moscow in an attack claimed by Islamic State.

U.S. officials said they had intelligence indicating it was the Afghan branch of the group, Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), that was responsible.

However, the IEA has repeatedly said it is working to wipe out the presence of ISIS-K in Afghanistan.

Russia’s history in Afghanistan

Russia has a complex and bloodstained history in Afghanistan.

Soviet troops invaded the country in December 1979 to prop up a Communist government, but became bogged down in a long war against mujahideen fighters armed by the United States.

Soviet leader at the time, Mikhail Gorbachev, pulled his army out in 1989, by which time some 15,000 Soviet soldiers had been killed.

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Kunduz families get much needed food aid, thanks to Bayat Foundation

The Bayat Foundation is a stalwart in terms of assisting needy people, not only through its winter food aid campaign but also in times of disaster.

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As part of its ongoing commitment to supporting needy families in winter in Afghanistan, the Bayat Foundation has once again provided essential food aid to hundreds of needy families in Kunduz province.

The Bayat Foundation’s representative in the northeastern zone, Khair Mohammad Saljoqi, explained that the relief packages included flour, rice, and oil, which were distributed to the needy after a thorough survey.

He stated: “The Bayat Charity Foundation continues its annual winter aid distribution [program]. This year, we have prepared winter relief packages for the needy in Kunduz, and today we are witnessing the distribution.”

Meanwhile, recipients have expressed their gratitude for the timely delivery of the relief packages and have called for further assistance from other humanitarian organizations for impoverished families.

One of the aid recipients, expressed his appreciation, saying: "We are very grateful to the Bayat Foundation."

Another recipient said: “We are very happy that the Bayat Foundation has helped the poor people. May God give strength to the Bayat Foundation to continue helping needy families, as it is winter, the weather is cold, and there is no work.”

Additionally, several women, who are the sole breadwinners for their families, shared that they have no food or warm clothing to get them through winter and are in desperate need of such assistance.

They also thanked the Bayat Foundation for their assistance.

Rukhshana, one of the recipients, said: “Please help us. We don’t have a breadwinner at home. I have small children. Traders should help us. We have no firewood, no coal. We thank the Bayat Foundation for helping us.”

The Bayat Foundation is a stalwart in terms of assisting needy people, not only through its winter food aid campaign but also in times of disaster.

Foundation officials have meanwhile stressed that given the growing poverty and worsening hardships people are facing in the country, their winter aid program will continue to be rolled out to other provinces.

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India hoping to import coal and marble from Afghanistan

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A high-ranking delegation from India's Gujarat Chamber of Commerce has expressed interest in importing coal and marble from Afghanistan and investing in Afghanistan's coal mining sector.

The officials expressed interest at a meeting with Ikramuddin Kamil, acting head of the Afghan consulate in Mumbai, India.

Kamil assured them that he would facilitate an online meeting at a technical level with the relevant Afghan institutions in this regard.

He said security is ensured in Afghanistan, corruption does not exist and there are investment opportunities for Indian businessmen.

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