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Peace talks ‘under threat’ as Taliban prepare for major spring offensive

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(Last Updated On: February 17, 2021)

Unusually intense fighting in the winter by Taliban insurgents has spurred Afghan government preparations for more violence in the warmer spring, which international players fear will further endanger the nation’s fragile peace process, Reuters reported.

This comes after a sharp increase in attacks by the group since the signing of the US-Taliban agreement in Doha in February last year. 

General Scott Miller, the head of US forces and the NATO-led Resolute Support mission told Reuters that “Taliban violence is much higher than historical norms.”

“It just doesn’t create the conditions to move forward in what is hopefully a historic turning point for Afghanistan,” he said.

Typically fighting quietens down during the snowy winter months before the Taliban launch a “spring offensive” around March. However, this winter, fighting has been intense. 

Miller said that the fighting now was an indicator that not only would there be a spring offensive – a move many diplomats view as against the spirit of the Doha agreement – but that it could be more intense than before, Reuters reported.

This also comes as negotiations have largely stalled in Doha in recent weeks and Taliban leaders have left Qatar, a senior state department official said, leading to growing fears that talks could be on the brink of collapse.

“If the violence isn’t reduced, it’s going to make a peace process very, very difficult; it would be very difficult for any side to make the necessary compromises,” Miller said.

The Afghan government has instructed security forces to carry out a comprehensive troop restructuring and design operations to prepare for a “tough and hard” spring offensive, two government sources told Reuters.

They added that Afghanistan’s special forces from different institutions such as the military and police are being streamlined to operate under one command. Highly experienced commanders have been appointed to key areas, and security forces were planning to conduct more airstrikes to avoid losses on the ground.

An Afghan National Security Council spokesman said they were “ready for any kind of war”, though they remained in “active defence” mode.

Four Taliban sources said that most of their commanders had in recent weeks cut short annual training sessions after being called back to the battlefield to prepare for intensive fighting.

Three residents in areas dominated by the Taliban in north-eastern Afghanistan had noticed a pick-up in the group’s activity in recent weeks, telling Reuters they had seen Taliban fighters moving en masse, holding meetings in mosques and beginning food and recruitment drives.

“In the past two weeks the topics Taliban preachers preach, especially on Friday prayers… have changed,” said a tribal elder from Kunduz province who asked not to be named for security reasons. “They preach about… fighting against invasion, and they openly invite people to join them. It’s a clear message that they are preparing for another fight this spring.”

A member of what the Taliban considers its special forces told Reuters that the group was preparing to act when there was an announcement about foreign troops.

“If they don’t leave Afghanistan on the preset date then the USA, NATO and the world will face a dangerous war, a war that never happened in the past 20 years,” he said.

A Taliban spokesman did not reply to a request for comment on the spring offensive.

The administration of US President Joe Biden is reviewing its plans for Afghanistan, including whether to stick to the May 1 deadline in the troop withdrawal agreement former President Trump’s administration signed with the Taliban in February 2020.

Miller said his command recognised that foreign forces could be a target if the Taliban view the deal as breached.

Experts and diplomats see a vanishing window of opportunity for talks to survive, although sides say they are committed negotiating, Reuters reported.

“Talks seem already very close to falling apart,” said Ashley Jackson, co-director of the Centre for the Study of Armed Groups at the Overseas Development Institute. “The trouble is that (Washington) seems to grossly underestimate just how bad things could get and how quickly that could happen.”

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MSF ‘deeply concerned’ over new phase of deportations of Afghans from Pakistan

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(Last Updated On: April 19, 2024)

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said Wednesday it was deeply concerned for the rights and welfare of Afghan refugees in Pakistan in the wake of the recent announcement by Islamabad that it plans to start Phase Two of the deportation campaign.

Pakistan is home to an estimated 3.7 million Afghans, and a reported 500,000 have crossed the border so far.

Many Afghans living in Pakistan have been there for decades and have spent more time in the country than their country of origin, without any legal recourse to remain in the only place they can effectively call “home”.

For many Afghans, Islamabad’s “repatriation” campaign means packing up their belongings and carrying them on a horse, cart, car and bus and traveling en masse to a country that is already struggling with widespread poverty, inadequate health services and increased restrictions on women, MSF said in a statement.

The second phase of the deportations leaves an estimated 800,000 Pakistan-issued Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) holders vulnerable to return, while phase three is expected to result in the further deportation of UNHCR-issued Proof of Registration (PoR) card holders, MSF said.

MSF first started working in Pakistan in 1986, and today provides much-needed medical care to people in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh provinces.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) and UN agencies estimate that more than half a million people have been deported from Pakistan or voluntarily returned to Afghanistan in the past six months.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said last month that nearly two million Afghan refugees are living in Pakistan and that the agency needs $368 million this year to assist these people.

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2023 marred by ‘tremendous challenges’ for Afghanistan

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(Last Updated On: April 18, 2024)

Last year, 2023, was a year of “tremendous challenges” for the people of Afghanistan, but it was also a year marked by resilience and determination, the Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Indrika Ratwatte, said in the UN’s annual report on Afghanistan that was published this week.

Ratwatte said: “In the face of adversity and multiple concurrent shocks, the people of Afghanistan have demonstrated remarkable courage and strength.”

Afghans now mention access to food as their most pressing need, he said adding that “unable to pay for or produce basic sustenance, millions face hunger and malnutrition.”

In 2024, an estimated 15.8 million people will experience crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity.

The majority of the population is unable to procure basic needs such as healthcare, food, livelihoods, and housing, the report stated.

The UN found that the country also remains vulnerable to climate change.

Following the worst drought in three decades, emerging El Niño conditions now threaten a new cycle of flooding and crop pests. In this context, lifesaving humanitarian aid has been crucial in preventing the collapse of the social fabric. It has also served to underpin the stability of the economy. Despite growing humanitarian needs, relevant funding cuts have forced humanitarian actors to prioritize the most vulnerable further, the report stated.

A Gallup poll found that 95 percent of the population consider themselves to be suffering. In addition to living in poverty, the average life expectancy in Afghanistan has been falling for the past five years.

The Herat earthquakes and unprecedented large-scale returns of refugees from neighbouring countries, including Pakistan and Iran, have shown the disruptive impact of recurrent shocks and underscored the need for sustained international engagement and support, the UN stated.

“As we embark on the next chapter, in 2024, it is imperative that we remain steadfast in our commitment to the principles of human rights, gender equality, and women’s Empowerment,” Ratwatte said.

“We will continue to include women as key partners in our work, to provide assistance ‘by women, for women’, and to tirelessly work for equal access to education in line with the demands we hear from Afghans in all areas of the country,” he said.

However, from an economic point of view, Afghanistan’s economy appears to be stabilizing at a low equilibrium level following a period of significant contraction since 2021.

The UN said in the report that growth barriers include severely restricted operations in the banking sector (including microfinance institutions), trade disruptions, and institutional issues hindering service delivery, including in the private sector.

“The sudden cessation of a significant amount of international aid and grants, which had accounted for 40 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), along with a freeze on international reserves amounting to about US$9 billion and the imposition of international sanctions, caused a severe balance of payments, banking and payment systems crisis.

“Notably, financial restrictions have removed liquidity from the banking system,” the report stated.

Despite the crisis and a period of devaluation towards the end of the year, the AFN is 20 percent stronger than it was in 2021 due to currency export controls, UN cash shipments of US dollars into Afghanistan, and personalremittances.

Imports continued to surpass exports through 2023 and increased as the economy contracted.

“This appears to be a paradox: the currency appreciated while the trade deficit widened, suggesting that there might be other unidentified sources of financing besides US dollar cash shipments and remittances to support the account deficits,” the report read.

The UN also said that with its partners, it will work to initiate a dialogue with the Islamic Emirate on adjustments to regulatory frameworks and sustained public service delivery with the aim of creating a long-term and sustainable pathway to reduce aid dependency and put Afghanistan back on a path towards development

“In this regard, we reiterate our offer to the DFA for a dialogue and will work jointly with international partners, donors, and Afghans on how such engagement can be structured in a most productive way.”

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Beijing hosts Afghan delegation for talks on a wide range of issues

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(Last Updated On: April 18, 2024)

The third meeting of the China-Afghanistan working-level liaison mechanism on humanitarian assistance and economic reconstruction was held in Beijing this week where in-depth talks were held on numerous issues relating to Afghanistan.

Liu Jinson, Director of the Asian Department of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Jalali, Director of the Third Political Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, co-chaired the Beijing meeting.

Also in attendance were representatives from various Chinese commissions, government departments, international aid organizations, as well as the Afghan Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, the Ministry of Disaster Management, and the Ministry of Refugee Affairs.

Quoting an Afghan proverb, Liu said at the meeting that “friends come and go, but neighbors always remain.”

He pointed out that since 2021, China has implemented a diplomatic concept of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness that was proposed by President Xi Jinping in terms of Beijing’s dealings with Afghanistan.

China has also adhered to a friendly policy towards all Afghan people, and adhered to the principle of respect for the country’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
He also said that during the different regimes in Afghanistan, China has always provided support and assistance for Afghanistan’s peaceful reconstruction and economic development.

The Afghan delegation meanwhile stated that the Islamic Emirate attaches great importance to developing relations with China, and thanked China for taking the lead in sending a new ambassador to Afghanistan and accepting the appointment of an ambassador to China.

The Islamic Emirate said Afghanistan is willing to deepen friendly relations with China, maintain traditional friendship, and will, as always, support China in safeguarding its core interests and achieving national reunification.

The two sides agreed in the meeting that Afghanistan is currently facing multiple challenges such as floods, droughts, and refugee resettlement, among other issues.

They also noted that the freezing of Afghanistan’s foreign assets by the United States has “aggravated the suffering of the Afghan people.”

The IEA stated however that it was “very grateful to China for its humanitarian assistance over the years and hopes to continue to receive help from China in refugee resettlement, disaster prevention and mitigation, improvement of medical and health conditions, and treatment of children with congenital heart disease.”

On the Belt and Road initiative, the IEA delegation said Afghanistan is deeply satisfied with the progress in practical cooperation between the two countries. They also said Afghanistan is willing to learn from China’s experience in modernization and development, and hopes that China will help Afghanistan cultivate more professional talents.

China meanwhile urged the international community to step up humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, and said Beijing hopes the IEA will “actively respond to some of the international community’s reasonable concerns about Afghanistan’s inclusive governance.”

Liu in turn acknowledged the IEA’s efforts to promote economic reconstruction and said bilateral trade volume between China and Afghanistan reached US$1.33 billion last year, a record high and a year-on-year increase of 125.4%.

The Islamic Emirate meanwhile said in posts on X that the issue of investment opportunities in Afghanistan was widely discussed and both sides welcomed moves to pave the way for the export of pomegranates.

“Also, both sides talked about the latest developments in increasing the level of oil extraction in Afghanistan and starting the extraction of Logar’s Mes Aynak mine and it was emphasized that plans should be considered to speed things up,” the IEA stated.

“The Afghan side welcomed the capacity building training programs of civil servants in many ministries and agencies of the Afghan government with the support of China. In addition, the Chinese side promised to expand the range of scholarships to Afghan students according to the needs of Afghanistan,” the IEA stated.

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