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Peace talks ‘under threat’ as Taliban prepare for major spring offensive
Unusually intense fighting in the winter by Taliban insurgents has spurred Afghan government preparations for more violence in the warmer spring, which international players fear will further endanger the nation’s fragile peace process, Reuters reported.
This comes after a sharp increase in attacks by the group since the signing of the US-Taliban agreement in Doha in February last year.
General Scott Miller, the head of US forces and the NATO-led Resolute Support mission told Reuters that “Taliban violence is much higher than historical norms.”
“It just doesn’t create the conditions to move forward in what is hopefully a historic turning point for Afghanistan,” he said.
Typically fighting quietens down during the snowy winter months before the Taliban launch a “spring offensive” around March. However, this winter, fighting has been intense.
Miller said that the fighting now was an indicator that not only would there be a spring offensive - a move many diplomats view as against the spirit of the Doha agreement - but that it could be more intense than before, Reuters reported.
This also comes as negotiations have largely stalled in Doha in recent weeks and Taliban leaders have left Qatar, a senior state department official said, leading to growing fears that talks could be on the brink of collapse.
“If the violence isn’t reduced, it’s going to make a peace process very, very difficult; it would be very difficult for any side to make the necessary compromises,” Miller said.
The Afghan government has instructed security forces to carry out a comprehensive troop restructuring and design operations to prepare for a “tough and hard” spring offensive, two government sources told Reuters.
They added that Afghanistan’s special forces from different institutions such as the military and police are being streamlined to operate under one command. Highly experienced commanders have been appointed to key areas, and security forces were planning to conduct more airstrikes to avoid losses on the ground.
An Afghan National Security Council spokesman said they were “ready for any kind of war”, though they remained in “active defence” mode.
Four Taliban sources said that most of their commanders had in recent weeks cut short annual training sessions after being called back to the battlefield to prepare for intensive fighting.
Three residents in areas dominated by the Taliban in north-eastern Afghanistan had noticed a pick-up in the group’s activity in recent weeks, telling Reuters they had seen Taliban fighters moving en masse, holding meetings in mosques and beginning food and recruitment drives.
“In the past two weeks the topics Taliban preachers preach, especially on Friday prayers... have changed,” said a tribal elder from Kunduz province who asked not to be named for security reasons. “They preach about... fighting against invasion, and they openly invite people to join them. It’s a clear message that they are preparing for another fight this spring.”
A member of what the Taliban considers its special forces told Reuters that the group was preparing to act when there was an announcement about foreign troops.
“If they don’t leave Afghanistan on the preset date then the USA, NATO and the world will face a dangerous war, a war that never happened in the past 20 years,” he said.
A Taliban spokesman did not reply to a request for comment on the spring offensive.
The administration of US President Joe Biden is reviewing its plans for Afghanistan, including whether to stick to the May 1 deadline in the troop withdrawal agreement former President Trump’s administration signed with the Taliban in February 2020.
Miller said his command recognised that foreign forces could be a target if the Taliban view the deal as breached.
Experts and diplomats see a vanishing window of opportunity for talks to survive, although sides say they are committed negotiating, Reuters reported.
“Talks seem already very close to falling apart,” said Ashley Jackson, co-director of the Centre for the Study of Armed Groups at the Overseas Development Institute. “The trouble is that (Washington) seems to grossly underestimate just how bad things could get and how quickly that could happen.”
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Mujahid says IEA stands with media outlets
The Islamic Emirate’s spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid says the acting government is committed to supporting media outlets and they can operate within the framework of Islamic Sharia and national interests.
Marking World Television Day on Thursday, November 21, Mujahid said: “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan supports the media in general. Media can operate within the framework of Islamic Sharia and national interests.”
“As far as we are able, we cooperate with the media and the Afghan media currently have publications and they are broadcasting their publications well,” he added.
The United Nations General Assembly named November 21 as World Television Day in 1996.
“Since IEA’s takeover, of 184 national and local televisions, 57 television stations were shut down due to economic problems,” said Hojatullah Mujadadi, the head of Afghanistan Free Journalists' Association (AFJU).
Currently, about 370 visual, audio and print media are active in the country.
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Baradar says water crisis has negatively impacted relations between nations
Baradar expressed regret that although Afghanistan has vast water resources, effective and professional management has not been carried out in this area.
Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, said on Thursday that the ongoing water crisis in the country has not only made neighboring countries face the problem of water scarcity, but it has also had a negative impact on political and economic relations between Afghanistan and these countries.
Speaking at a seminar held by the Ministry of Energy and Water, Baradar said that although water is a renewable natural resource, the shortage of water due to climate change, the increase in the level of water pollution, the growing demand of the people and its excessive consumption affects the country.
He expressed regret that although Afghanistan has vast water resources, effective and professional management has not been carried out in this area.
“It is now the responsibility of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to fulfill its national duty for the optimal management of the country’s water resource,” Baradar said.
“With firm determination, we aim to use all available means to ensure sustainable development in water management.”
Last month, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) also warned that Afghanistan is experiencing a severe water crisis, and if no action is taken, Kabul’s underground water resources could be depleted by 2030.
In a message on X, UNICEF reported that Roza Otunbayeva, head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), and Tajudeen Oyewale, head of UNICEF Afghanistan, visited a Kabul district to assess the city's water supply network.
Both officials expressed concern over the worsening water shortage problem in the capital.
"Water is life," UNICEF stated, emphasizing that rapid urbanization and climate change are accelerating the depletion of groundwater in Kabul.
“If we don't act now, we cannot stop this process."
The rapid population growth, unplanned construction of high-rise buildings, urban development without proper planning, and the excessive use of underground water resources are major factors contributing to the decline in both the quantity and quality of groundwater in Kabul.
Although Kabul has faced water shortages for years, the crisis has become more severe in recent times.
However, the Islamic Emirate is making concerted efforts to resolve the problem and thwart the crisis.
Three weeks ago, the office of the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, said in a statement that plans to construct a total of 355 water reservoirs across the country were being implemented.
According to the statement, of the 355 dams, a number of them have already been completed and inaugurated while others are under construction.
Of these reservoirs, 138 are being constructed by the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock; 117 by the Ministry of Water and Energy; and 100 by the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development.
All of these dams are being funded by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the statement read.
The reservoirs are being constructed in numerous provinces to manage rainwater, prevent flooding, strengthen groundwater levels and for use by communities.
Iran’s water share
Late last year, Iranian Energy Minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian warned that if Afghanistan does not ensure Tehran receives its rightful amount of water from Helmand River, Iran will use legal and international means to resolve the problem.
Mehrabian stressed that Helmand River water is Iran's indisputable right, and that Iran takes the matter seriously.
“Water right is Iran's right and it is necessary to release it. Ensuring water rights is not optional, but it is mandatory based on the international treaty of 1351. Pursuing this matter is Iran's absolute right and we will not fail in this regard. The recent rains should cause the release of our water, and if not, we will take serious action based on international laws,” stressed Mehrabian.
At the time, the Islamic Emirate said it was committed to providing Iran with water from the Helmand River but due to drought, there is not enough water in the river to give Iran its share.
The Helmand River Water Treaty was signed between Afghanistan and Iran in 1973, according to which Iran has the right to receive 850 million cubic meters of water from Afghanistan annually.
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Pakistan rejects suggestion of appointing a new special envoy for Afghanistan
Islamabad however continues to accuse Afghanistan of providing safe havens to militant groups that target Pakistan, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch has dismissed rumors that Islamabad is considering appointing a new special representative for Afghanistan.
Baloch said on Thursday that there was no truth in these reports but that special envoys for Afghanistan from Russia and China had recently visited Pakistan and met with officials.
In August, Pakistan dismissed its special envoy to Afghanistan, Asif Durrani, and has not yet appointed a replacement.
Addressing a weekly briefing on Thursday, Baloch also raised the issue of militant groups in Afghanistan.
She also announced the latest data on Afghan refugees and said so far this year, Pakistan has expelled almost 800,000 undocumented migrants from the neighboring country.
She said the process still continues to ensure a "successful and smooth return" of illegal Afghan nationals.
"Since November 2023 to October 2024, so far 757,008 undocumented Afghans were sent back to Afghanistan," Baloch said, adding that the figure also includes those who returned voluntarily.
According to UN figures, some 1.3 million Afghans are registered refugees in Pakistan, while another 880,000 have legal status to stay.
Pakistan started its crackdown on all foreigners living in the country illegally late last year.
According to Islamabad, the rise in militant attacks led them to making this decision.
Islamabad however continues to accuse Afghanistan of providing safe havens to militant groups that target Pakistan, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
This claim has repeatedly been rejected by the Islamic Emirate, who state they will not allow any group to use Afghan soil against another country.
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