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Pakistan clinches last-gasp $3 billion IMF bailout

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Pakistan secured a badly-needed $3 billion short-term financial package from the International Monetary Fund on Friday, giving the South Asian economy respite as it teeters on the brink of default.

In a long-awaited decision for Pakistan, the IMF said it had reached a staff-level deal with the 220 million nation, which will now be subject to approval by its board in July.

The new nine-month standby arrangement came hours before a current IMF agreement expires, offering relief to Pakistan, which is battling an acute balance of payments crisis.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said it would put Pakistan "on the path of sustainable economic growth".

With sky-high inflation and foreign exchange reserves barely enough to cover one month of controlled imports, which analysts say Pakistan's economic crisis could have spiraled into a debt default in the absence of an IMF deal, Reuters reported.

The deal came only after Sharif held marathon meetings with IMF head Kristalina Georgieva on June 22, which he said represented "a turning point" as the fund's managing director had not initially appeared very forthcoming.

Pakistan will receive formal documents on the deal later on Friday, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar told Reuters, which he said he would "sign, seal and return by tonight".

The new deal, which Dar said on Thursday was expected soon, will disburse an upfront amount of $1.1 billion shortly after the IMF board's meeting in July, he said.

Dar said Pakistan aimed to take the central bank's foreign exchange reserves to $14 billion by the end of July. "We have stopped the decline, now we have to turn to growth," he added.

Pakistan's sovereign dollar bonds were trading higher after the announcement, with the 2024 issue enjoying the biggest gains, up more than 8 cents at just above 70 cents in the dollar, according to Tradeweb data.

The gains were most pronounced in shorter-dated bonds, reflecting lingering skepticism over the longer-term fiscal outlook for the country.

The $3 billion IMF funding is higher than expected as it looks set to replace the remaining $2.5 billion from a $6.5 billion longer-term Extended Fund Facility agreed in 2019.

The deal will also unlock other bilateral and multilateral financing. Long-time allies Saudi Arabia, the UAE and China have already pledged or rolled over billions of loans.

"This will support near-term policy efforts and replenish gross reserves," the IMF said.

The new arrangement builds on the 2019 programme, IMF official Nathan Porter said in a statement, adding that Pakistan's economy had faced several challenges in recent times, including devastating floods and rising commodity prices.

"Despite the authorities' efforts to reduce imports and the trade deficit, reserves have declined to very low levels. Liquidity conditions in the power sector also remain acute," Porter said.

"Given these challenges, the new arrangement would provide a policy anchor and a framework for financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners in the period ahead."

Porter also pointed out the power sector's buildup of arrears and frequent power outages, Reuters reported.

Reforms in the energy sector, which has accumulated nearly 3.6 trillion Pakistani rupees ($12.58 billion) in debt, has been a cornerstone of the IMF talks.

The IMF said it would want steadfast policy implementation by Pakistan to overcome challenges, "particularly in the energy sector", where it expects a rise in electricity prices.

Dar confirmed that the hike will come ahead of the IMF board review of the bailout, saying the rebasing to be done in July will make about three to four rupees a unit difference.

"Reform does not, must not, mean raising tariff endlessly," Pakistan's Minister for Power Khurram Dastgir told Reuters.

With the tenure of the current government ending in August, Dastgir said it had put in place an "aggressive medium-to-long-term plan" to increase renewable energy which was only possible if long-term assistance is available.

Reforms taken

Islamabad has taken measures demanded by the IMF since its mission arrived in Pakistan earlier this year, including revising its 2023-24 budget and a key policy rate hike to 22% in recent days.

It also got Pakistan to raise more than 385 billion rupee ($1.34 billion) in new taxation to meet the IMF's fiscal adjustments.

The IMF said the central bank should remain proactive to reduce inflation and maintain a foreign exchange framework.

The painful adjustments have already fuelled all time high inflation of 38% year-on-year in May.

"The FY24 budget advances a primary surplus of around 0.4 percent of GDP," Porter said, adding it will be important that the budget is executed as planned, and authorities resist pressures for unbudgeted spending or tax exemptions.

"This new programme is far better than our expectations," said Mohammed Sohail of Topline Securities in Karachi, adding there while were a lot of uncertainties on what would happen after a new government comes to power it would "definitely help restore some investor confidence".

‘Tough journey’ ahead

Meanwhile, on Friday night, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to twitter and said while the IMF stand-by agreement “is a much-needed breather, which will help the country achieve economic stability, the nations are not built through loans. I pray for this new program to be the last one.”

He went on to thank Pakistan’s “friends & partners such as China, Saudi Arabia, UAE & Islamic Development Fund for standing by Pakistan at the time of massive economic challenges.

“Under a whole-of-the-government approach, we have worked out an Economic Revival Plan, which will focus on unlocking our strategic potential in agriculture, mine & minerals, defense production & information technology. The Plan will bring up investments of billions of dollars & create job opportunities for four million people.

“It may be a tough journey but as they say, ‘When the going gets tough, the tough gets going’," he said.

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Iran’s president to make rare visit to Egypt for D-8 summit

Iran will discuss regional and bilateral affairs with the participating countries on the sidelines of the summit, Baghaei added.

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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will take part in a summit of big Muslim countries in Egypt on Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said, the first visit by an Iranian president to Egypt in more than a decade, Reuters reported.

Egypt is hosting the summit of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, which also includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Turkey.

Relations between Egypt and Iran have generally been fraught in recent decades but the two countries have stepped up high-level diplomatic contacts since the eruption of the Gaza crisis last year as Egypt tried to play a mediating role, read the report.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi travelled to Egypt in October to discuss regional issues with Egyptian officials, while his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty travelled to Tehran earlier in July to attend Pezeshkian's inauguration.

"We have the important summit... known as D-8 in Egypt, the foreign minister will take part in the ministerial conference and then the summit will be held with the participation of the president," Baghaei said in a weekly televised news conference.

Iran will discuss regional and bilateral affairs with the participating countries on the sidelines of the summit, Baghaei added.

The D-8 was established in 1997 to improve cooperation between countries stretching from Southeast Asia to Africa.

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Bomb kills chief of Russian nuclear protection forces in Moscow

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A bomb hidden in an electric scooter killed a senior Russian general in charge of nuclear protection forces in Moscow on Tuesday, Russia’s investigative committee said.

Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who is chief of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops, was killed outside an apartment building on Ryazansky Prospekt, which starts a road some seven km (4 miles) southeast of the Kremlin, Reuters reported.

“Igor Kirillov, the head of the radiation, chemical and biological protection forces of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, and his assistant were killed,” the investigative committee said.

Photographs posted on Russian Telegram channels showed a shattered entrance to a building littered with rubble and two bodies lying in the blood-stained snow.

Reuters footage from the scene showed a police cordon. A criminal case has been opened.

Russia’s radioactive, chemical and biological defense troops, known as RKhBZ, are special forces who operate under conditions of radioactive, chemical and biological contamination.

On Monday, Ukrainian prosecutors charged Kirillov in absentia with the alleged use of banned chemical weapons in Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine said, according to the Kyiv Independent.

Russia denies those accusations.

Britain in October sanctioned Kirillov and the nuclear protection forces for using riot control agents and multiple reports of the use of the toxic choking agent chloropicrin on the battlefield.

 
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Hezbollah chief says group lost its supply route through Syria

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Hezbollah head Naim Qassem said on Saturday that the Lebanese armed group had lost its supply route through Syria, in his first comments since the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad nearly a week ago by a sweeping rebel offensive.

Under Assad, Iran-backed Hezbollah used Syria to bring in weapons and other military equipment from Iran, through Iraq and Syria and into Lebanon. But on Dec. 6, anti-Assad fighters seized the border with Iraq and cut off that route, and two days later, rebels captured the capital Damascus.

"Yes, Hezbollah has lost the military supply route through Syria at this stage, but this loss is a detail in the resistance's work," Qassem said in a televised speech on Saturday, without mentioning Assad by name, Reuters reported.

"A new regime could come and this route could return to normal, and we could look for other ways," he added.

Hezbollah started intervening in Syria in 2013 to help Assad fight rebels seeking to topple him at that time. Last week, as rebels approached Damascus, the group sent supervising officers to oversee a withdrawal of its fighters there.

More than 50 years of Assad family rule has now been replaced with a transitional caretaker government put in place by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al Qaeda affiliate that spearheaded the rebel offensive.

Qassem said Hezbollah "cannot judge these new forces until they stabilise" and "take clear positions", but said he hoped that the Lebanese and Syrian peoples and governments could continue to cooperate.

"We also hope that this new ruling party will consider Israel an enemy and not normalise relations with it. These are the headlines that will affect the nature of the relationship between us and Syria," Qassem said.

Hezbollah and Israel exchanged fire across Lebanon's southern border for nearly a year in hostilities triggered by the Gaza war, before Israel went on the offensive in September, killing most of Hezbollah's top leadership.

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