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Khalilzad reflects on fall of Kabul govt and military

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US special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad said this week that many questions remain unanswered on why former president Ashraf Ghani fled the country unexpectedly and why the Afghan military forces dissolved within just a few hours.

He also stated that in his opinion, the leadership of the former government made a “grand miscalculation” - that the US would never withdraw its troops.

In an interview with Foreign Policy on Tuesday, Khalilzad said: “Why did President Ghani do what he did? Why did the forces behave the way they did? The question is, you know, we invested so much in this force. The numbers were impressive on paper, the capabilities were there, internal weapons, air power - especially special forces of the military, which we thought was quite significant and capable and dedicated, some of them, that perform extremely courageously as individuals, as units.

“There were forces at work for our various other agencies that were all there. What happened?,” he asks.

He said while the US did not have information yet on the issue it does seem the security forces were left fighting for a government they didn’t want to defend.

“We haven’t done enough work to say what definitively happened in terms of that. But that’s what it looks like,” he said.

“And there have been some quick assessments of why, even as districts were falling, people saying that many commanders were changed. There are others who say, you know, people didn’t think this thing was worth fighting for.

“Could it be the standing of the government changed with the soldiers because of corruption and perceptions of corruption? I don’t know; we don’t know. This will take a lot more time,” he said.

Khalilzad also said many Afghans complain that the US pushed Ghani too hard, while others have said Ghani should have been pushed harder on the negotiations.

He said he thinks Ghani may have been “ill advised” but that no one, except some individuals, expected the military and government to collapse so quickly.

“People thought it might take years if it happens. Then as these districts started to fall, some people shrank the time that it might take.

“But Ghani, whenever I saw him and when the secretary (of state Antony Blinken) spoke to him the night before all of this happened, he was of the view that even after our departure (troops withdrawal), sometimes he would say it was a blessing.”

Khalilzad said he had many conversations with Ghani in the lead up to the collapse of the former government, but the former president was “of the view that the Talibs (IEA members) would not be able to win militarily.

“He believed that very, very passionately and strongly until, I think, they (the IEA) were surrounding Kabul.”

He said in reference to the Doha talks between the US and the IEA, which led to the Doha deal in February last year, that he “respects those who say we shouldn’t have negotiated with the Talibs (IEA) without the government being there.”

He said commentators “don’t deal with the underlying forces or balance that caused us to do that which was that we were losing ground”.

“Since after (former U.S. President Barack Obama’s) surge, each year we were losing ground to the Talibs (IEA), meaning Talibs (IEA) were taking more territory. So unless we agreed to another surge, time was not on our side.”

“I think that the grand miscalculation of the Afghan leadership was this: that we were not going to leave.”

He said putting a condition in place with the IEA that troops would be withdrawn only once an agreement was in place between the IEA and the former government, “could have been an option”.

“But there was a lot of pessimism here, whether the Afghans could ever come to an agreement with each other. And therefore, if you made it a tight condition; You’d never leave; in a sense, you’re saying you’re going to stay”

Khalilzad stated that in his opinion Ghani was reluctant to forge an agreement with the IEA as a new government would mean he might lose power.

“This new government idea meant that perhaps he wouldn’t have led the government. It took us a long time to get him to even appoint an inclusive delegation to go to Doha.

Khalilzad also said however that the IEA played a key role in ending ISIS-K’s (Daesh) foothold in Afghanistan.

“I think on ISIS, they played a vital role in ending the territory of ISIS in Afghanistan. We will watch that closely. We are, this is obviously of vital importance, we hold them to their commitments on terrorism, including al Qaeda.

Khalilzad said that the US has made some achievements in Afghanistan over the past 20 years.

“People live longer, are more educated, wealthier. The physical face of Afghanistan, of Kabul, changed fundamentally. On the building of a vision - that of a democratic, self-sufficient, secure Afghanistan - I think we fell short together. And you have to learn from what happened.

“Could we have done things differently? Was there a problem of ends and means that our ambitions were too large compared to the strategy and resources?

“How we built the [armed] forces? Could it have been done differently to make it more resilient and more self-reliant and motivated to fight? Should we have pushed harder for a political settlement earlier? Yes, I reflect on those, and I will reflect on them for some time to come,” he said.

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Canada sent 19 failed asylum seekers back to Afghanistan last year

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Canada's border guards sent 19 rejected Afghan asylum seekers back to the country last year despite Otawa’s Temporary Suspension of Removals (TSR) that has been in place for Afghan nationals since 1994.

CBC reported that none of the 19 Afghans had their cases rejected on the basis of safety or security risks. The border service did not however reveal further details.

The border agency said a TSR is meant to "halt removals to a country or place when general conditions, such as armed conflict or an environmental disaster, pose a risk to the entire civilian population."

It also said individuals who were found inadmissible "on grounds of criminality, serious criminality, international or human rights violations, organized crime, or security" can be removed despite a TSR, CBC reported.

The CBSA said the 19 who failed their refugee claims left Canada "voluntarily," and that the Afghans were "aware that they benefit from a stay of removal due to the Temporary Suspension of Removal on Afghanistan but requested to have their removal order enforced despite the legislative stay.

"In other words, the individual was advised that they can remain in Canada until the TSR is lifted and they opted to return to Afghanistan."

Canada has welcomed some 54,000 Afghans since August 2021, surpassing a commitment it made to bring in 40,000 in 2021.

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Trump team compiling list of military officers responsible for US withdrawal from Afghanistan

Trump has on a number of occasions condemned the withdrawal as a “humiliation” and “the most embarrassing day in the history of our country.” 

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The Trump transition team is compiling a list of senior current and former U.S. military officers who were directly involved in the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and exploring whether they could be court-martialed. 
 
NBC reported that the team working on the transition of power between President-elect Donald Trump and outgoing President Joe Biden are considering creating a commission to investigate the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.
 
Citing a US official and a person familiar with the plan, NBC stated a commission would then gather information about who was directly involved in the decision-making for the military, how it was carried out, and whether the military leaders could be eligible for charges as serious as treason.
 
“They’re taking it very seriously,” the person with knowledge of the plan said.
 
The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
 
Matt Flynn, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for counternarcotics and global threats, is helping lead the effort, the sources said. 
 
Trump has on a number of occasions condemned the withdrawal as a “humiliation” and “the most embarrassing day in the history of our country.” 
 
NBC reports however that it is not clear what would legally justify “treason” charges since the military officers were following the orders of President Joe Biden to withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan.
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Ottawa taking detention of Canadian in Afghanistan ‘very seriously’

Lavery helped an estimated 100 Afghans flee Kabul during the chaotic withdrawal of US and allied forces.

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The Canadian government is taking "very seriously" the detention in Afghanistan of a former member of Canada's elite special forces, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Saturday.

Retired soldier David Lavery, known in Kabul as Canadian Dave, was detained by the Islamic Emirate shortly after landing in Kabul on Monday, according to Canadian broadcaster CTV News.

His whereabouts are unknown, the outlet added, citing unnamed sources.

Asked about Lavery, Trudeau said: "I can first of all assure you that the Canadian government is taking very, very seriously the situation."

He also said consular assistance has been provided to Lavery's family.

Lavery helped an estimated 100 Afghans flee Kabul during the chaotic withdrawal of US and allied forces.

He spent decades in the Canadian military and is said to have been a key member of its elite Joint Task Force 2 special operations unit.

More recently, Lavery has reportedly operated a private security firm in Kabul.

The Islamic Emirate has not yet commented.

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