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Khalilzad reflects on fall of Kabul govt and military

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US special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad said this week that many questions remain unanswered on why former president Ashraf Ghani fled the country unexpectedly and why the Afghan military forces dissolved within just a few hours.

He also stated that in his opinion, the leadership of the former government made a “grand miscalculation” - that the US would never withdraw its troops.

In an interview with Foreign Policy on Tuesday, Khalilzad said: “Why did President Ghani do what he did? Why did the forces behave the way they did? The question is, you know, we invested so much in this force. The numbers were impressive on paper, the capabilities were there, internal weapons, air power - especially special forces of the military, which we thought was quite significant and capable and dedicated, some of them, that perform extremely courageously as individuals, as units.

“There were forces at work for our various other agencies that were all there. What happened?,” he asks.

He said while the US did not have information yet on the issue it does seem the security forces were left fighting for a government they didn’t want to defend.

“We haven’t done enough work to say what definitively happened in terms of that. But that’s what it looks like,” he said.

“And there have been some quick assessments of why, even as districts were falling, people saying that many commanders were changed. There are others who say, you know, people didn’t think this thing was worth fighting for.

“Could it be the standing of the government changed with the soldiers because of corruption and perceptions of corruption? I don’t know; we don’t know. This will take a lot more time,” he said.

Khalilzad also said many Afghans complain that the US pushed Ghani too hard, while others have said Ghani should have been pushed harder on the negotiations.

He said he thinks Ghani may have been “ill advised” but that no one, except some individuals, expected the military and government to collapse so quickly.

“People thought it might take years if it happens. Then as these districts started to fall, some people shrank the time that it might take.

“But Ghani, whenever I saw him and when the secretary (of state Antony Blinken) spoke to him the night before all of this happened, he was of the view that even after our departure (troops withdrawal), sometimes he would say it was a blessing.”

Khalilzad said he had many conversations with Ghani in the lead up to the collapse of the former government, but the former president was “of the view that the Talibs (IEA members) would not be able to win militarily.

“He believed that very, very passionately and strongly until, I think, they (the IEA) were surrounding Kabul.”

He said in reference to the Doha talks between the US and the IEA, which led to the Doha deal in February last year, that he “respects those who say we shouldn’t have negotiated with the Talibs (IEA) without the government being there.”

He said commentators “don’t deal with the underlying forces or balance that caused us to do that which was that we were losing ground”.

“Since after (former U.S. President Barack Obama’s) surge, each year we were losing ground to the Talibs (IEA), meaning Talibs (IEA) were taking more territory. So unless we agreed to another surge, time was not on our side.”

“I think that the grand miscalculation of the Afghan leadership was this: that we were not going to leave.”

He said putting a condition in place with the IEA that troops would be withdrawn only once an agreement was in place between the IEA and the former government, “could have been an option”.

“But there was a lot of pessimism here, whether the Afghans could ever come to an agreement with each other. And therefore, if you made it a tight condition; You’d never leave; in a sense, you’re saying you’re going to stay”

Khalilzad stated that in his opinion Ghani was reluctant to forge an agreement with the IEA as a new government would mean he might lose power.

“This new government idea meant that perhaps he wouldn’t have led the government. It took us a long time to get him to even appoint an inclusive delegation to go to Doha.

Khalilzad also said however that the IEA played a key role in ending ISIS-K’s (Daesh) foothold in Afghanistan.

“I think on ISIS, they played a vital role in ending the territory of ISIS in Afghanistan. We will watch that closely. We are, this is obviously of vital importance, we hold them to their commitments on terrorism, including al Qaeda.

Khalilzad said that the US has made some achievements in Afghanistan over the past 20 years.

“People live longer, are more educated, wealthier. The physical face of Afghanistan, of Kabul, changed fundamentally. On the building of a vision - that of a democratic, self-sufficient, secure Afghanistan - I think we fell short together. And you have to learn from what happened.

“Could we have done things differently? Was there a problem of ends and means that our ambitions were too large compared to the strategy and resources?

“How we built the [armed] forces? Could it have been done differently to make it more resilient and more self-reliant and motivated to fight? Should we have pushed harder for a political settlement earlier? Yes, I reflect on those, and I will reflect on them for some time to come,” he said.

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Russian law paves way to recognise Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

No country currently recognises the IEA government which regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021.

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Russia's parliament passed a law on Tuesday that would allow courts to suspend bans on groups designated by Moscow as terrorist organisations - paving the way for it to normalise ties with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan annd potentially with the new leadership of Syria.

No country currently recognises the IEA government which regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021.

But Russia has been gradually building ties with the Islamic Emirate, which President Vladimir Putin said in July was now an ally in fighting terrorism.

In addition, the leader of Russia's Muslim region of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, called on Monday for the removal of Syrian group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from Moscow's list of banned groups.

HTS spearheaded the toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad earlier this month.

Kadyrov, a close Putin ally, said Russia needed ties to the new Syrian authorities to ensure stability and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

The Kremlin said this week that Russia was in contact with the new leadership in Syria, where it hopes to retain the use of an airfield and a naval base that give it an important military foothold in the Mediterranean.

Security threat

Moscow sees a major security threat from Islamist militant groups based in a string of countries from Afghanistan to the Middle East, where Russia lost a major ally with the fall of Assad, Reuters reported.

In March, gunmen killed 145 people at a concert hall outside Moscow in an attack claimed by Islamic State.

U.S. officials said they had intelligence indicating it was the Afghan branch of the group, Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), that was responsible.

However, the IEA has repeatedly said it is working to wipe out the presence of ISIS-K in Afghanistan.

Russia’s history in Afghanistan

Russia has a complex and bloodstained history in Afghanistan.

Soviet troops invaded the country in December 1979 to prop up a Communist government, but became bogged down in a long war against mujahideen fighters armed by the United States.

Soviet leader at the time, Mikhail Gorbachev, pulled his army out in 1989, by which time some 15,000 Soviet soldiers had been killed.

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Kunduz families get much needed food aid, thanks to Bayat Foundation

The Bayat Foundation is a stalwart in terms of assisting needy people, not only through its winter food aid campaign but also in times of disaster.

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As part of its ongoing commitment to supporting needy families in winter in Afghanistan, the Bayat Foundation has once again provided essential food aid to hundreds of needy families in Kunduz province.

The Bayat Foundation’s representative in the northeastern zone, Khair Mohammad Saljoqi, explained that the relief packages included flour, rice, and oil, which were distributed to the needy after a thorough survey.

He stated: “The Bayat Charity Foundation continues its annual winter aid distribution [program]. This year, we have prepared winter relief packages for the needy in Kunduz, and today we are witnessing the distribution.”

Meanwhile, recipients have expressed their gratitude for the timely delivery of the relief packages and have called for further assistance from other humanitarian organizations for impoverished families.

One of the aid recipients, expressed his appreciation, saying: "We are very grateful to the Bayat Foundation."

Another recipient said: “We are very happy that the Bayat Foundation has helped the poor people. May God give strength to the Bayat Foundation to continue helping needy families, as it is winter, the weather is cold, and there is no work.”

Additionally, several women, who are the sole breadwinners for their families, shared that they have no food or warm clothing to get them through winter and are in desperate need of such assistance.

They also thanked the Bayat Foundation for their assistance.

Rukhshana, one of the recipients, said: “Please help us. We don’t have a breadwinner at home. I have small children. Traders should help us. We have no firewood, no coal. We thank the Bayat Foundation for helping us.”

The Bayat Foundation is a stalwart in terms of assisting needy people, not only through its winter food aid campaign but also in times of disaster.

Foundation officials have meanwhile stressed that given the growing poverty and worsening hardships people are facing in the country, their winter aid program will continue to be rolled out to other provinces.

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India hoping to import coal and marble from Afghanistan

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A high-ranking delegation from India's Gujarat Chamber of Commerce has expressed interest in importing coal and marble from Afghanistan and investing in Afghanistan's coal mining sector.

The officials expressed interest at a meeting with Ikramuddin Kamil, acting head of the Afghan consulate in Mumbai, India.

Kamil assured them that he would facilitate an online meeting at a technical level with the relevant Afghan institutions in this regard.

He said security is ensured in Afghanistan, corruption does not exist and there are investment opportunities for Indian businessmen.

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