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Israel’s endgame? No sign of post-war plan for Gaza

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Israel is vowing to wipe out Hamas in a relentless onslaught on the Gaza Strip but has no obvious endgame in sight, with no clear plan for how to govern the ravaged Palestinian enclave even if it triumphs on the battlefield.

Codenamed “Operation Swords of Iron”, the military campaign will be unmatched in its ferocity and unlike anything Israel has carried out in Gaza in the past, according to eight regional and Western officials with knowledge of the conflict who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, Reuters reported.

Israel has called up a record 360,000 reservists and has been bombarding the tiny enclave non-stop following Hamas’s assault on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which killed about 1,400 people, mostly civilians.

The immediate Israeli strategy, said three regional officials familiar with discussions between the U.S. and Middle Eastern leaders, is to destroy Gaza’s infrastructure, even at the cost of high civilian casualties, push the enclave’s people towards the Egyptian border and go after Hamas by blowing up the labyrinth of underground tunnels the group has built to conduct its operations.

Israeli officials have said that they don’t have a clear idea for what a post-war future might look like, though.

Some of U.S. President Joe Biden’s aides are concerned that while Israel may craft an effective plan to inflict lasting damage to Hamas, it has yet to formulate an exit strategy, a source in Washington familiar with the matter said.

Trips to Israel by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this past week had stressed the need to focus on the post-war plan for Gaza, the source added.

Arab officials are also alarmed that Israel hasn’t set out a clear plan for the future of the enclave, ruled by Hamas since 2006 and home to 2.3 million people.

“Israel doesn’t have an endgame for Gaza. Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs, destroy everything and go in, but then what? They have no exit strategy for the day after,” said one regional security source.

An Israeli invasion has yet to start, but Gaza authorities say 3,500 Palestinians have already been killed by the aerial bombardment, around a third of them children – a larger death toll than in any previous conflict between Hamas and Israel.

Biden, on a visit to Israel on Wednesday, told Israelis that justice needed to be served to Hamas, though he cautioned that after the 9/11 attacks on New York, the U.S. had made mistakes.

The “vast majority of Palestinians are not Hamas”, he said. “Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people.”

Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Biden’s visit would have given him a chance to press Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to think through issues such as the proportional use of force and the longer-term plans for Gaza before any invasion.

City of tunnels

Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have said they will wipe out Hamas in retribution for the Oct. 7 killings, the deadliest militant attack in Israel’s 75-year-old history.

What will follow is less defined.

“We are of course thinking and dealing with this, and this involves assessments and includes the National Security Council, the military and others about the end situation,” Israeli National Security Council director Tzachi Hanegbi told reporters on Tuesday. “We don’t know what this will be with certainty.”

“But what we do know is what there will not be,” he said, referring to Israel’s stated aim to eradicate Hamas.

This might be easier said than done.

“It’s an underground city of tunnels that make the Vietcong tunnels look like child’s play,” said the first regional source, referring to the Communist guerrilla force that defied U.S. troops in Vietnam. “They’re not going to end Hamas with tanks and firepower.”

Two regional military experts told Reuters that Hamas’s armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, has mobilized for an invasion, setting up anti-tank mines and booby-trapped explosive devices to ambush troops.

Israel’s coming offensive is set to be much bigger than past Gaza operations that Israeli officials had previously referred to as “mowing the grass”, degrading Hamas’s military capabilities but not eliminating it.

Israel has fought three previous conflicts with Hamas, in 2008-9, 2012 and 2014, and launched limited land invasions during two of those campaigns, but unlike today, Israel’s leaders never vowed to destroy Hamas once and for all.

In those three confrontations, just under 4,000 Palestinians and fewer than 100 Israelis died.

There is less optimism in Washington, though, that Israel will be able to completely destroy Hamas and U.S. officials see little chance that Israel will want to hold on to any Gaza territory or re-occupy it, the U.S. source said.

A more likely scenario, the person said, would be for Israeli forces to kill or capture as many Hamas members as they can, blow up tunnels and rocket workshops, then after Israeli casualties mount, look for a way to declare victory and exit, Reuters reported.

Fear grows in region

The fear across the region is that the war will blow up beyond the confines of Gaza, with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and its backer Iran opening major new fronts in support of Hamas.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned of a possible “preemptive” action against Israel if it carried out its invasion of Gaza. He said last weekend that Iran would not watch from the sidelines if the U.S. failed to restrain Israel.

Arab leaders have told Blinken, who has been criss-crossing the region this past week, that while they condemn Hamas’s attack on Israel, they oppose collective punishment against ordinary Palestinians, which they fear will trigger regional unrest.

Popular anger will ratchet up across the region when the body count rises, they said.

Washington has sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean and is concerned that Hezbollah might join the battle from Israel’s northern border. There has been no sign, however, that the U.S. military would then move from a deterrent posture to direct involvement.

The regional sources said Washington was proposing to re-energise the Palestinian Authority (PA), which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007, although there is huge doubt whether the PA or any other authority would be able to govern the coastal enclave should Hamas be driven out.

In the meantime, calls for the creation of humanitarian corridors within Gaza and escape routes for Palestinian civilians have drawn a strong reaction from Arab neighbors.

They fear an Israeli invasion will spark a new permanent mass wave of displacement, a replay of the 1948 Israeli war of independence and 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Millions of Palestinians who were forced to flee then have remained stranded as refugees in the countries that hosted them.

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Secretive Chinese network tries to lure fired US federal workers, research shows

Researcher identifies “network of fake consulting and headhunting firms”

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A network of companies operated by a secretive Chinese tech firm has been trying to recruit recently laid-off U.S. government workers, according to job ads and a researcher who uncovered the campaign, Reuters reported Wednesday.

Max Lesser, a senior analyst on emerging threats with the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said some companies placing recruitment ads were “part of a broader network of fake consulting and headhunting firms targeting former government employees and AI researchers.”

Little information is publicly available on the four consultancies and recruitment companies allegedly involved in the network, which in some cases shared overlapping websites, were hosted on the same server, or had other digital links, according to Reuters’ reporting and Lesser’s research.

The four companies’ websites are hosted at the same IP address alongside Smiao Intelligence, an internet services company whose website became unavailable during Reuters’ reporting. 

Reuters could not determine the nature of the relationship between Smiao Intelligence and the four companies.

The news agency’s attempts to track down the four companies and Smiao Intelligence ran into numerous dead-ends including unanswered phone calls, phone numbers that no longer work, fake addresses, addresses that lead to empty fields, unanswered emails and deleted job listings from LinkedIn.

Lesser, who uncovered the network and shared his research with Reuters ahead of publication, said the campaign follows “well-established” techniques used by previous Chinese intelligence operations.

“What makes this activity significant,” he said, “is that the network seeks to exploit the financial vulnerabilities of former federal workers affected by recent mass layoffs.”

Reuters could not determine if the companies are linked to the Chinese government or whether any former federal workers were recruited.

Asked about the research, three intelligence analysts told Reuters the network appeared to be a prime example of how foreign-linked entities are trying to gather intelligence from staff fired or forced into retirement by President Donald Trump and billionaire tech tycoon Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington told Reuters in an email that China was unaware of any of the entities allegedly involved in the campaign and Beijing respects data privacy and security.

A White House spokesperson said China was constantly trying to exploit the United States’ “free and open system” through espionage and coercion.

“Both active and former government employees must recognize the danger these governments pose and the importance of safeguarding government information,” the spokesperson said.

One of the companies in the network, RiverMerge Strategies, bills itself on its website as a “professional geopolitical risk consulting company” and posted two since-deleted job listings on its since-removed LinkedIn page in mid-February.

One ad that sought a “Geopolitical Consulting Advisor” with experience with government agencies, international organizations, or multinational corporations, displayed that it had more than 200 applications, according to a screenshot of the LinkedIn post.

The other sought a human resources specialist who could “utilize a deep understanding of the Washington talent pool to identify candidates with policy or consulting experience,” and “leverage connections to local professional networks, think tanks, and academic institutions.”

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Russian missile attack wounds 88 in Ukraine’s Sumy, officials say

Zelenskiy said Russia was “the only entity prolonging this war and tormenting both our people and the entire world.

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A Russian missile attack hit a densely-populated district of Ukraine’s northeastern city of Sumy, wounding 88 people, including 17 children, on Monday as ceasefire talks, ploughed on, officials said.

Regional governor Volodymyr Artiukh announced the latest casualty toll on national television. He said many more children had escaped injury as they had been evacuated to air raid shelters, Reuters reported.

“They were in the area in a densely-populated area hit by the enemy strike,” Artiukh told the television.

“Two schools fell within the impact zone. I was present when our rescuers cleared the locations where the children were. They were in protective structures. All the children were rescued and evacuated to a safe place.”

Several high-rise residential blocks in the city centre were also damaged, read the report.

Artiukh had earlier spoken in a video that he said was shot at the scene with heavy black smoke, fires and a car with shattered windows in the background. Smoke also rose from the upper floors of a five-storey residential block nearby.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy deplored the attack in his nightly video address as the latest example of “losses, pain and destruction, something Ukraine never wanted.”

The missile struck the city as Russian and U.S. officials met in Saudi Arabia to discuss a possible ceasefire.

Zelenskiy said Russia was “the only entity prolonging this war and tormenting both our people and the entire world.

“To force Russia into peace, strong measures and decisive actions are needed,” he said. “We are ready to support every strong initiative that makes diplomacy more effective.”

Foreign Minister Adrii Sybiha said Moscow was speaking of peace “while carrying out brutal strikes on densely populated residential areas in major Ukrainian cities.”

“Instead of making hollow statements about peace, Russia must stop bombing our cities and end its war on civilians,” Sybiha said.

Acting Sumy mayor Artem Kobzar said on Telegram an industrial facility was attacked but did not name it.

Sumy, about 30 km (20 miles) from the Russian border, comes under constant drone and missile strikes from Russia.

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Putin and Trump may have spoken more than twice, Kremlin says

Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward in his 2024 book “War” reported that Trump had direct conversations as many as seven times with Putin after he left the White House in 2021.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump may have had more contacts than the two publicly announced telephone calls over recent months, the Kremlin said in video footage published by state television on Sunday.

Trump, who says he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker, has repeatedly said that he wants the three-year conflict in Ukraine to end and has warned of the risks of it escalating into a world war between the United States and Russia.

There have so far been two announced phone calls between Putin and Trump this year – on Feb. 12 and on March 18 – though there has been speculation about much more frequent contact, and also reports that they spoke before Trump was elected last year.

When asked by the most prominent Kremlin correspondent for state television about remarks by Trump that indicated there may have been more than two calls, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said information had been released about those calls he knew of.

“Listen, we inform you about the conversations that we are aware of. But we can’t rule out everything else,” Peskov said.

State television’s Pavel Zarubin then asked: “So all sorts of nuances are possible as they say?” to which Peskov replied: “Well, that is how I would answer your question.”

The contacts between Trump and Putin have spooked European leaders who fear the United States could be turning its back on Europe in the hope of striking a peace deal with Russia as part of some broader grand bargain encompassing oil prices, the Middle East and competition with China.

Trump told the Washington Examiner, that he had been speaking to the Russian leader for weeks.

Before the contacts with Trump, Putin last spoke to a sitting U.S. president in February 2022, when he and Joe Biden spoke shortly before the Russian leader ordered tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine.

Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward in his 2024 book “War” reported that Trump had direct conversations as many as seven times with Putin after he left the White House in 2021.

Asked if that were true in an interview to Bloomberg last year, Trump said: “If I did, it’s a smart thing.” The Kremlin denied Woodward’s report.

Reuters, The Washington Post and Axios reported separately that Trump and Putin spoke in early November. The Kremlin also denied those reports.

Putin and Trump may have another phone call if Ukraine continues strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, Peskov said.

Putin agreed to the suspension of such attacks in a phone call with Trump last week. Kyiv, which has said it would be willing to take part in such a partial ceasefire if a document setting out its terms is agreed, has accused Russia of not abiding by Putin’s order, something Moscow denies.

“While the Russian side has been sticking to its word for several days now, the word that the president gave, and to the president’s command, which immediately came into force and was immediately implemented, and is still being implemented, the same cannot be said of the Kyiv regime”, Peskov said.

Russia and Ukraine accused each other on Friday of blowing up a Russian gas pumping station in a border area where Ukrainian troops have been retreating. Russia said on Saturday it reserves the right to a “symmetrical response” to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities.

Asked if Ukraine’s violation of the agreement may become a reason for another Putin-Trump call, Peskov said: “Absolutely. The presidents confirmed their intention to continue contacts as necessary.”

In another clip released on Zarubin’s Telegram channel earlier on Sunday, Peskov said the latest phone call between Putin and Trump was “a step towards a face-to-face meeting”, adding that Russia-U.S. talks in Riyadh scheduled for Monday would also be such a step, Interfax news agency reported.

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