The International Crisis Group (ICG) has said the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) anti-drug policies provide an opportunity to stabilize the country’s economy although it has “devastated livelihoods in rural areas”.

ICG, an international think-tank, said in a report published Thursday, titled ‘Trouble In Afghanistan’s Opium Fields: The Taliban War On Drugs’, that the Islamic Emirate’s ban has been “one of the most successful poppy elimination efforts in modern history.” 

Late last year, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime said opium cultivation fell throughout the country to just 10,800 hectares in 2023 from 233,000 hectares the previous year, slashing supply by 95 percent following the Islamic Emirate’s ban on all cultivation of opium poppy in April 2022.

However, the report warns that as long as rural Afghans lack alternative livelihood opportunities, the likelihood of large-scale displacement and rising emigration will remain high.

The international think tank, known for policymaking advisories, said: “Making the narcotics policy (of the interim administration) sustainable and equitable will require a multilateral effort between Afghanistan and the outside world.”

“In the meantime, the Taliban (IEA) should adopt more lenient measures as it implements its eradication campaign to enable the poorest farmers and those most impacted by the ban to gradually transition away from the poppy as a cash crop,” ICG stated.

“The anti-drug initiative is in many foreign actors’ interest, creating opportunities for donors to support Afghanistan’s economic stabilization” - ICG

However, legal crops will not offer sufficient employment, so the focus should be on job creation in non-farm industries, the group suggested.

ICG also stated that the ban’s future is uncertain; although the Islamic Emirate is adamant about implementing it, “it could collapse under the weight of economic hardship.”

“Foreign donors, who have much to gain from reduced drug production in Afghanistan, should harness the Taliban’s (IEA) zeal for counter-narcotics and encourage licit economic growth. In the meantime, the Taliban should consider the welfare of the poorest farmers and implement a phased approach to the ban.”

By UN estimates, the halt to opium farming has affected the livelihoods of almost seven million people and while underworld kingpins and big landowners have thrived under the ban, reaping the benefits of skyrocketing prices by selling stockpiles, many farmers have suffered. 

Farmers have lost an estimated $1.3 billion annually, or eight percent of GDP in 2023. 

Farm work remains the biggest source of employment for Afghan women and the ban has hit them especially hard and the economic shock has been compounded by the Islamic Emirate’s limited capacity to offer farmers and rural workers alternatives. 

“Many switched to cultivating wheat or cotton, but struggle to make ends meet. Development of licit agriculture would require more irrigation, cold storage facilities and better roads. The Taliban does not have the budget to develop such infrastructure. 

“Meanwhile, the opium price has soared, tempting farmers to flout the ban,” ICG said.

“While the Taliban’s measures have shaken the drug sector to its very foundations, the future of the ban remains in doubt. 

“Some experts predict that its economic impact will force the Taliban to backtrack on a signature policy. Of course, it is also possible that the Taliban leadership will remain stubborn and steadfast,” ICG stated. 

The group stated that support could focus on rural development, agricultural support, water conservation and investments in agro-processing. 

“But the reality is that a drug-free agricultural sector will not provide enough jobs, so the country needs a development plan focusing more broadly on non-farm employment, including for women.” 

ICG stated that a full transition away from the dependence on narcotics as a cash crop will take time. Instead, the Islamic Emirate “should show a bit of leniency.”

“Adopting more lenient practices such as turning a blind eye to small garden plots of poppy and cannabis would give the poorest farmers a better chance of survival in the coming years. Farmers selling tiny amounts of opium for prices hundreds of times higher than what is paid for other crops would give them a lifeline without jeopardizing the ban’s overall objectives,” the report stated.