Pakistan has emerged as the country most affected by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s return to power in 2021, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG), as cited by Pakistani daily Dawn.

The Brussels-based independent think tank warns that relations between Kabul and Islamabad have sharply deteriorated, raising the risk of further military confrontation if militant attacks inside Pakistan continue. The report cautions that Pakistan may resort to additional cross-border military action against Afghanistan under such circumstances.

According to the ICG, the primary source of tension lies in Pakistan’s assertion that the Islamic Emirate has failed to act decisively against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Kabul has repeatedly rejected these claims, maintaining that Pakistan’s security challenges are internal and not linked to Afghan territory.

The report notes a significant escalation in violence across Pakistan since 2022. In 2025 alone, more than 600 Pakistani soldiers and police personnel were killed in militant attacks, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Islamabad attributes much of the violence to the TTP and Baloch insurgent groups, alleging they operate with backing from India.

The ICG also references United Nations monitoring assessments that claim the TTP enjoys support from the Islamic Emirate, an allegation Afghan authorities firmly deny. Kabul insists that TTP fighters are not present in Afghanistan and that militancy in Pakistan is homegrown.

According to Dawn, tensions escalated further after 11 Pakistani military personnel were killed in a TTP attack on October 8, prompting Pakistan to carry out airstrikes, including what was described as its first-ever strike on Kabul. Afghanistan subsequently retaliated by targeting Pakistani military positions, resulting in both military and civilian casualties on both sides.

The report warns that Islamabad is likely to respond forcefully again if future attacks are traced to Afghan territory. While describing the Islamic Emirate as militarily outmatched, the ICG cautions that any retaliation could still prove deadly. Afghan authorities have claimed they possess missiles capable of reaching Pakistani cities, a scenario that could provoke a far stronger response from Islamabad.

In a broader regional assessment, the International Crisis Group has listed Afghanistan–Pakistan relations among the 10 major conflicts to watch in 2026. The report adds that the global security environment was already deteriorating before Donald Trump’s return to the White House and that prospects for lasting peace in 2026 remain bleak.

Despite renewed diplomatic initiatives under President Trump aimed at portraying him as a global dealmaker, the report concludes that international crises have not eased and, in several cases, have intensified.

A diplomat appointed by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has arrived in India to take charge of the Afghan Embassy in New Delhi, marking a notable development in India–Afghanistan engagement nearly five years after the IEA assumed control in Kabul.

According to a report by The Hindu, Noor Ahmad Noor, a senior official in the IEA’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has reached New Delhi and is expected to assume responsibilities as Charge d’Affaires at the Afghan mission. The move follows an understanding reportedly reached during Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to New Delhi in October 2025, when he met External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

The development is being viewed as a step toward enhanced diplomatic engagement between India and Afghanistan’s current rulers, though officials have emphasized that it does not constitute formal recognition of the IEA government.

The IEA’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not issued an official comment on the report so far.

Amnesty International has written to Shehbaz Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, expressing serious concern over the unlawful detention, harassment, and deportation of Afghan refugees in the country.

In this open letter, Amnesty International has called on Pakistani authorities to halt the deportation of Afghan refugees and ensure that individuals in need of international protection are safeguarded in accordance with international human rights law.

The organization also emphasized that Pakistani authorities must guarantee the rights of Afghan refugees, particularly protection against arbitrary detention and eviction from refugee camps and their places of residence.