More than 5.2 million Afghans have returned home from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan since the beginning of 2025, placing unprecedented strain on an already fragile humanitarian situation, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) said in a new report.

According to IFRC, the massive wave of returnees and deportees between January and the end of November 2025 represents one of the largest population movements in Afghanistan’s recent history. Of the total, over 3.6 million Afghans returned from Iran alone, including at least 1.2 million who were forcibly deported.

The report noted that the bulk of returns began after April 1, reflecting intensified policy enforcement in host countries. Despite the onset of winter—traditionally a period of reduced movement—return numbers have remained high, particularly from Iran, indicating that protection concerns and policy pressures are outweighing seasonal constraints.

Returns from Pakistan

Citing data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), IFRC said that between January 1 and November 30, 2025, an estimated 804,830 Afghans returned from Pakistan, with around 116,100—about 14 percent—deported.

Pakistan launched the second phase of its Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan (IFRP) in April 2025, targeting undocumented Afghans and holders of Afghan Citizen Cards. In July, the plan was expanded to include Proof of Registration card holders, and the end of the grace period on August 31 further heightened fear and uncertainty among Afghan communities.

According to the Afghan Red Crescent Society (ARCS), the highest daily influx of returnees from Pakistan was recorded in November. Most crossed through the Torkham crossing in Nangarhar and Spin Boldak in Kandahar, with smaller numbers entering through Angur Ada in Paktika and unofficial routes in Helmand.

Sustained Returns from Iran

IFRC reported that returns from Iran remained substantial throughout 2025, accounting for nearly 65 percent of all returnees recorded during the year. More than 1.8 million Afghans returned from Iran, arriving mainly through key border points such as Islam Qala and Milak–Zaranj.

The peak of returns occurred mid-year, driven by the expiry of temporary residency arrangements and intensified enforcement measures. Many returnees arrived with limited belongings, placing immediate pressure on reception facilities and essential services in border provinces.

Although daily crossings declined after the mid-year peak, IFRC said returns continued at scale through late 2025, compounding Afghanistan’s humanitarian needs.

Concerns in Tajikistan

The report also raised alarm over the situation in Tajikistan, where borders remain open only to Afghans holding valid passports and visas. At the same time, IFRC noted that arbitrary deportations—including of recognized refugees and asylum-seekers—have been reported, fueling anxiety and distress within Afghan communities.

IFRC warned that the surge in returns has placed severe pressure on host communities inside Afghanistan, many of which are struggling with poverty, limited shelter, food insecurity, and inadequate access to healthcare and protection services.

The organization urged sustained international support to address the growing humanitarian emergency and to ensure safe, dignified, and voluntary returns for Afghan migrants.

In December 2025, Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan said that 2.8 million Afghan migrants and citizens returned during the year. Their repatriation was efficiently managed, with essential services provided and residential settlements being distributed to support returnees.

These achievements underscore the IEA’s efforts to advance diplomacy, strengthen security, manage natural resources, support vulnerable communities, and facilitate the safe return of Afghan migrants.

The U.S. government has notified Congress of its plan to shut down Camp As Sayliyah in Qatar by the end of September, a facility that temporarily houses Afghan evacuees before their transfer to the United States, according to the Washington Times.

Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Relations Committee, called the move “short-sighted” and warned that closing the camp could severely undermine U.S. efforts to relocate Afghans who assisted American forces during the two-decade conflict. Meeks described the decision as a “betrayal of Afghan allies and U.S. commitments.”

Camp As Sayliyah has functioned as a temporary processing center, where evacuees undergo security screenings before entering the U.S. According to the Afghan Evacuee Oversight Committee, roughly 800 individuals remain at the camp, including prosecutors, lawyers, female special operations personnel, and family members of U.S. military staff.

Concerns over security risks linked to the Afghan evacuation process persist. Government inspectors have highlighted challenges during the 2021 evacuations, noting that thousands of evacuees arrived in the U.S. without full identification, fueling a politically charged debate.

During a Senate hearing on Wednesday, officials revealed the difficulties of vetting Afghan evacuees. Approximately 36,000 evacuees lacked formal identification, and more than 11,000 could not provide an accurate date of birth. The State Department’s inspector general said an eight-month review failed to produce a definitive count of evacuees accepted under the operation. Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general reported that at least 77,000 Afghans entered the U.S. under the Priority Rescue Operations (PROL) program.

Democratic lawmakers expressed concern that shutting the camp could endanger Afghan allies. Senator Alex Padilla of California said, “Punishing all Afghan allies today for the actions of a few is completely unacceptable and shameful.” Democrats emphasized that security concerns should not result in abandoning those who supported the U.S., potentially exposing them to danger if returned to Afghanistan.

The Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation has issued a warning of severe weather conditions across 18 provinces, including heavy rain, snowfall, thunderstorms, and flash floods.

In a statement shared on its X page, the ministry said that adverse weather conditions are expected Friday in the provinces of Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Baghlan, Samangan, Parwan, Balkh, Faryab, Sar-I-Pol, Jawzjan, Badghis, Herat, Farah, Ghor, Helmand, Daikundi, Uruzgan, and Bamiyan.

Rainfall is expected to range between 10 and 30 millimeters, while snowfall may reach 10 to 35 millimeters in different areas.

The ministry also warned of strong winds in central provinces, particularly around the Salang passes, with speeds expected between 50 and 90 kilometers per hour.

Authorities urged citizens to exercise caution while traveling and to take necessary safety measures to avoid accidents caused by flash floods, landslides, and snowstorms.