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History unlikely to repeat itself, says leading political scientist  

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(Last Updated On: October 27, 2020)

Despite repeated calls from Afghans and their international partners for a reduction in violence, the Taliban has failed to listen and has steadfastly stated violence will end once an Islamic system has been established. 

In an op-ed in Foreign Policy on Tuesday, Barnett Richard Rubin, an American political scientist and a leading expert on Afghanistan said that even then the group has not defined “Islamic system”. 

Instead, the Taliban has stalled the talks by refusing to budge on procedural matters, including that relating to jurisprudence to be referred to in the event of disputes. 

Rubin says that to get the Taliban to agree to a ceasefire, “they will most certainly have to be given something substantial in return.

“They will want further guarantees from the United States that it will complete its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and lift sanctions imposed on the Taliban,” he said. 

With regards to the Afghan side, Ruben said they may want to install an interim government that includes representatives from both sides. 

Should this happen, an interim government would preside over a political process to determine what the Doha agreement calls a “roadmap” for Afghanistan’s political future. As he pointed out, the idea of an interim government has been discussed in Kabul but has sparked controversy. 

“There is precedent for interim governments in the practice of peace processes in general and in Afghanistan, but the history of Afghanistan also shows the risks inherent in such measures,” said Rubin. 

Looking back at Afghanistan’s history of interim governments – after the Bonn Agreement in 2001, and another from 1991 to 1992 – Rubin said the end result had marked a new stage of war rather than a transition to peace. 

The 2001 move was implemented after the ousting of the Taliban while the 1991 interim government came after the Soviet withdrawal and the then-president Mohammed Najibullah’s resignation which ultimately led to civil war. 

As Rubin said, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has cited these events as a warning. 

Addressing an event hosted by the US Institute of Peace and the Atlantic Council in June, Ghani said: “Dr Najibullah made the mistake of his life by announcing that he was going to resign.” 

“Please don’t ask us to replay a film that we know well,” said Ghani. 

In Rubin’s opinion, Ghani’s take on the issue is warranted. 

Rubin wrote: “The Geneva Accords of April 1988 provided for the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan by February 15, 1989. As a first step toward stabilization, they also required the end of US aid to the mujahideen by May 1988, but the United States refused to implement that provision without a commitment by the Soviet Union to stop military aid to the Afghan government. 

“The Geneva Accords made no provision for a political transition, but in 1989, after the Soviet Union withdrew, Moscow began a dialogue with the United States about a UN-sponsored political settlement and conditions under which both sides would end military assistance. Najibullah and his Soviet backers argued that the process should start under the incumbent (him), who may leave at the end. 

“The United States, mujahideen, and Pakistan insisted that Najibullah resign at the start and be replaced by a UN-mediated interim government. The Soviet Union agreed after the failed coup by hard-liners in Moscow in August 1991 that triggered the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December. Just before the state’s demise, in September 1991, both sides had agreed to end military aid to their proxies by January 1992, with an interim government to take over from Najibullah on April 15 that year. 

“Mujahideen leaders in Pakistan rejected that agreement, though, and mutinous militias blocked Najibullah from flying to India under UN escort. The security forces fractured, and war started inside Kabul. Out of the resulting chaos came the Taliban,” Rubin stated.

 But he said that today, there are some elements in place that would prevent a 1992-style collapse in the event of an interim government coming into power. 

 Rubin said that first, aid would continue to be provided, second, the negotiation process has been more transparent and third, the armed opposition is united and engaged in negotiations. 

“In the 1990s, the mujahideen—also at war internally—refused to meet with representatives of the Kabul regime, making the creation of a power-sharing interim government impossible. 

“This time, the Taliban also refused to meet the Afghan government before its February agreement with the United States on troop withdrawal, but they are now engaged in direct negotiations with representatives of the government.”

Rubin also stated that this time around, the parties to a potential interim government are meeting directly in Doha, and the Taliban have developed a unified command structure opposed to the factionalized group that undermined the mujahideen. 

Another issue that differs now, against 1992, is that Afghanistan now has a constitution and three functioning branches of government – even if “rule of law remains weak”. 

Rubin also pointed out that Afghanistan is a member of the United Nations and a party to many international agreements. “Any transition should seek to assure the continuity of the legal identity of the state and its institutions, especially the security forces,” he wrote. 

“In other words, the prospects for an interim government are better this time than in 1992. What is left is for the parties to, first, make clear the means by which each of the parties will commit to an agreement internally. 

“Any agreement to modify Afghanistan’s current political arrangements should take existing institutions as a point of departure. For instance, the constitution provides for an interim government in Article 67, which outlines procedures in the case of the death, resignation, illness, or impeachment of the president. To depart from these constitutional lines of succession, the formation of a new interim government could be approved by an emergency loya jirga, a customary institution codified in the Bonn Agreement. The Taliban would likewise use their own institutions to ratify it. The agreement would also have to include, as did the Bonn Agreement, the structure and personnel of the interim government, provisions for all armed forces to come under the authority of the interim government, and the legal framework under which the interim authority would operate,” Rubin wrote. 

He stated that for a transition to take place, under current circumstances, it would make sense to specify the legal framework as the current constitution with appropriate modifications to accommodate the agreement on the interim government. 

But he warned the Taliban may reject such a proposal since it implies the acceptance of the existing constitution.

However, Rubin noted that one former Taliban official suggested that the group might accept a modified version of the constitution of 1964, on which the current constitution is based. 

He also stated that any interim government agreement should also note, as did the Bonn Agreement, that “the Interim Authority shall be the repository of Afghan sovereignty, with immediate effect.” 

He said counterterrorism obligations of the Taliban, laid out in the Doha agreement as well as those of the current government, could become obligations of the interim government. 

“The United States would also have to agree with the interim government that all bilateral agreements remain in effect, subject to updates reflecting changed conditions in the country,” he said. 

In conclusion, Rubin stated that both sides have so far rejected any mediator or international facilitation, “but they will find it difficult if not impossible to negotiate and implement such a complex agreement without it.”

He warned however that if there is no progress in the talks, “the United States could simply disengage.”

“The United States is unlikely to break up like the Soviet Union, but it is certain to be distracted by the [COVID-19] pandemic and numerous domestic crises. The process might be different than in 1992, but the result could be similar if not worse. It is urgent to get these negotiations moving,” he said. 

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UN food agency cuts rations to 2 million Afghans as funds dry up

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(Last Updated On: September 5, 2023)

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) had to cut rations to another two million Afghans this month and is warning of a “catastrophic” winter if funding runs out with little food for remote communities in place, the agency’s country director said.

The cut in rations comes amidst growing alarm over shrinking aid for Afghanistan, where a UN humanitarian response plan is only about a quarter funded, even after the budget was downgraded in the face of funding shortfalls.

WFP funding for food and cash assistance is expected to run out by the end of October and the agency has had to steadily cut assistance through the year to 10 million Afghans.

The positioning of food to areas that will be cut off in winter has also been limited. The WFP said if no funding comes through, 90% of remote areas in need will be cut off without food and even in accessible locations, people will get no supplies during the harsh weather.

“That is the catastrophe that we have to avert,” WFP Afghanistan Country Director Hsiao-Wei Lee told Reuters.

About three-quarters of Afghanistan’s people are in need of humanitarian aid as their country emerges from decades of conflict under an internationally isolated IEA administration that took over as US-backed foreign forces withdrew in 2021.

Development assistance that for years formed the backbone of government finances has been cut and the administration is subject to sanctions and central bank assets abroad have been frozen.

Restrictions by the Islamic Emirate on women, including stopping most female Afghan humanitarian staff from working, are an obstacle to formal recognition and have also put off donors, many of whom have turned their attention to other humanitarian crises.

“What I do in my engagements with them is remind them that at the end of the day, we must focus on those who are most in need,” Lee said of donors.

“The cost of inaction is ultimately borne and paid for by the most vulnerable and poor mothers and children.”

Three million people are now getting food aid but after October, they might be getting nothing.

The WFP needs $1 billion in funding to provide food aid and carry out planned projects until March, Lee said.

For Kabul resident Baba Karim, 45, the cash he has got twice this year from the WFP has been a vital supplement to the less than $2 a day he earns working odd jobs at a market with a push cart.

“I’m so worried about what will happen next, now that the assistance has ended,” said the father of five.

“I lie awake at night worrying about the future of my children.”

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Pulisic scores again to help Milan thrash Torino, Roma slump to Verona loss

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(Last Updated On: August 27, 2023)

AC Milan forward Christian Pulisic struck to set Stefano Pioli’s side on their way to a 4-1 thrashing of Torino in their opening home game of the season in Serie A on Saturday, while Hellas Verona snatched a 2-1 victory over visitors AS Roma.

Pulisic’s opener, two Olivier Giroud penalties and a close-range lob by Theo Hernandez moved Milan provisionally top after they got off to a winning 2-0 start at Bologna on Monday.

“An excellent match, the weekly work made us level up,” Pioli told DAZN. “The team has made an important journey in recent years and top-level reinforcements have arrived… A good group is forming in terms of attitude, availability.”

U.S. international Pulisic looks set to become a new idol at the San Siro after his move from Chelsea as he put Milan ahead in the 33rd minute by firing home from close range in front of a capacity crowd for his second goal in two games, Reuters reported.

Torino defender Perr Schuurs temporarily spoiled the mood when he leveled three minutes later with a first-time effort but that was the visitors’ only shot on target all night.

Giroud restored Milan’s lead with a penalty minutes before halftime, calmly firing the ball into the roof of the net after the hosts were awarded a penalty for handball.

Hernandez chipped goalkeeper Vanja Milinkovic-Savic to add the third in first-half stoppage time following a couple of one-twos with Rafael Leao before Frenchman Giroud converted another spot kick in the second half after Schuurs’ foul on Leao.

Torino, who were held to a 0-0 draw at home by newly-promoted Cagliari on Monday, lacked the ideas to pose any danger in front of Mike Maignan’s goal as Milan kept the ball and continued pushing to increase the scoreline.

Roma disappoint

Jose Mourinho’s Roma fell short at Verona who were quick to take the lead when midfielder Ondrej Duda scored from close range in less than four minutes after visiting goalkeeper Rui Patricio saved a fierce long-range shot by Filippo Terracciano.

Roma had a golden chance to equalize shortly after through midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini who controlled the ball on the edge of the box but his low shot went inches wide, Reuters reported.

Instead, Verona doubled their lead in first-half stoppage time through forward Cyril Ngonge who left the Milan defense standing as he netted on the counter with a solo run.

Algeria midfielder Houssem Aouar pulled one back for Roma after the break but the visitors were unable to rescue a draw despite Verona finishing with 10 men following an 84th minute red card for Isak Hien for a foul on Andrea Belotti.

Verona, who secured another season in Serie A via a relegation playoff last term, are provisionally second after winning their opening match at Empoli 1-0.

“We conceded an avoidable goal which intimidated us a bit … (but) these matches create mentality and a strong identity,” new Verona manager Marco Baroni told a press conference.

Roma, who were still without Mourinho as he serves a 10-day touchline ban for criticising a referee at the end of last season, have one point after being held to a 2-2 draw by visiting Salernitana last weekend.

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Wagner chief on passenger list of crashed plane

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(Last Updated On: August 24, 2023)

The head of the Wagner group, which in June attempted to topple Russia’s military leadership, was registered to fly on a plane that crashed Wednesday, Russian news agencies said.

The whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin were yet to be officially confirmed, but news of the crash that is believed to have left no survivors triggered reactions from Ukraine and the United States, AFP reported.

The incident took place exactly two months since Prigozhin’s rebellion — seen as the biggest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority since he came to power — and as uncertainty has surrounded the fate of Wagner and its controversial chief.

Russia’s ministry for emergency situations on Wednesday announced the crash of a private plane travelling between Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

According to preliminary information, all 10 people on board died, including three crew members, the ministry said.

Russian news agencies later reported Prigozhin on the list of passengers of the plane.

“The plane that crashed in the Tver Region listed Yevgeny Prigozhin among its passengers, (Russia’s aviation agency) Rosaviatsia said,” TASS news agency reported, with RIA Novosti and Interfax issuing similar reports.

Videos on Telegram channels linked to Wagner posted footage — that AFP could not independently confirm — showing the wreckage of the plane burning in a field.

Rosaviatsia said it set up a special commission to investigate the crash of the Embraer – 135 (ЕВМ-135BJ) belonging to MNT-Aero.

Russia’s Investigative Committee, which probes serious crimes, said it opened an investigation into the crash.

The bodies of eight people have been found so far at the site of the crash, RIA Novosti said citing the emergency services.

Putin was meanwhile giving a speech for the 80th anniversary of the Kursk battle in World War II.

He did not mention the crash and hailed “all our soldiers who are fighting bravely and resolutely” in the special military operation in Ukraine.

But rumors of Prigozhin’s death reached other capitals, with Kyiv and Washington reacting.

“I don’t know for a fact what happened, but I’m not surprised,” US President Joe Biden said.

“There’s not much that happens in Russia that (President) Putin’s not behind. But I don’t know enough to know the answer.”

Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhaylo Podolyak said on social media that the plane crash was “a signal from Putin to Russia’s elites ahead of the 2024 elections. ‘Beware! Disloyalty equals death’.”

During the offensive in Ukraine, launched on February 24, 2022, Prigozhin — who previously operated in the shadows — came into the spotlight.

He spearheaded the capture of several Ukrainian towns including Bakhmut — and harshly criticised Russia’s conventional military leadership.

But Prigozhin was locked in a bitter months-long power struggle with the defence ministry that he accused of trying to “steal” Wagner’s victories.

Tensions degenerated into a short-lived rebellion on June 23 and 24.

Thousands of mercenaries took up weapons and marched from southern Russia towards Moscow with the aim of toppling the country’s military leaders.

The mutiny ended with a deal, mediated by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, under which Prigozhin was expected to move to neighbouring Belarus with some of his men.

Some of the fighters went to Belarus where they began training the ex-Soviet country’s special forces.

But the fate of Prigozhin remained unclear: he seemed to enjoy a certain amount of freedom and took part in a meeting at the Kremlin where he refused to cede command of his mercenary group.

Still, he mostly remained out of the public eye.

His Telegram channel — where he usually communicated — has been inactive since the end of June.

Wagner-linked Telegram channels instead purportedly relayed rare messages.

On Monday, video circulated showing him apparently in Africa, which he vowed to make “freer”.

The group maintains a strong military presence in Africa, where it has partnered with several nations, including Mali and the Central African Republic. – AFP

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