Science & Technology

Google AI chief says there’s a 50% chance we’ll hit AGI in just 5 years

Published

1 year ago

October 31, 2023

More than a decade ago, the co-founder of Google's DeepMind artificial intelligence lab predicted that by 2028, AI will have a half-and-half shot of being about as smart as humans — and now, he's holding firm on that forecast.

In an interview with tech podcaster Dwarkesh Patel, DeepMind co-founder Shane Legg said that he still thinks that researchers have a 50-50 chance of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), a stance he publicly announced at the very end of 2011 on his blog, Futurism reported.

It's a notable prediction considering the exponentially growing interest in the space. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has long advocated for an AGI, a hypothetical agent that is capable of accomplishing intellectual tasks as well as a human, that can be of benefit to all. But whether we'll ever be able to get to that point — let alone agree on one definition of AGI — remains to be seen.

Legg apparently began looking towards his 2028 goalpost all the way back in 2001 after reading "The Age of Spiritual Machines," the groundbreaking 1999 book by fellow Google AI luminary Ray Kurzweil that predicts a future of superhuman AIs.

"There were two really important points in his book that I came to believe as true," he explained. "One is that computational power would grow exponentially for at least a few decades. And that the quantity of data in the world would grow exponentially for a few decades."

Paired with an understanding of the trends of the era, such as the deep learning method of teaching algorithms to "think" and process data the way human brains do, Legg wrote back at the start of the last decade that in the coming ones, AGI could well be achieved — so long as "nothing crazy happens like a nuclear war."

Today, the DeepMind co-founder said that there are caveats to his prediction that the AGI era will be upon us by the end of this decade.

The first, broadly, is that definitions of AGI are reliant on definitions of human intelligence — and that kind of thing is difficult to test precisely because the way we think is complicated.

"You'll never have a complete set of everything that people can do," Legg said — things like developing episodic memory, or the ability to recall complete "episodes" that happened in the past, or even understanding streaming video. But if researchers could assemble a battery of tests for human intelligence and an AI model were to perform well enough against them, he continued, then "you have an AGI."

When Patel asked if there could be a single simple test to see whether an AI system had reached general intelligence, such as beating Minecraft, Legg pushed back.

"There is no one thing that would do it, because I think that's the nature of it," the AGI expert said. "It's about general intelligence. So I'd have to make sure [an AI system] could do lots and lots of different things and it didn't have a gap."

The second biggest caveat, Legg added, was the ability to scale AI training models way, way up — a worthy point given how much energy AI companies are already using to churn out large language models like OpenAI's GPT-4.

"There's a lot of incentive to make a more scalable algorithm to harness all this computing data," Legg explained. "So I thought it would be very likely that we'll start to discover scalable algorithms to do this."

Asked where he thought we stand today on the path to AGI, Legg said that he thinks computational power is where it needs to be to make it happen, and the "first unlocking step" would be to "start training models now with the scale of the data that is beyond what a human can experience in a lifetime" — a feat he believes the AI industry is ready to achieve.

All that said, Legg reiterated his personal stance that he only believes there's a 50 percent chance researchers will achieve AGI before the end of this decade, and Futurism has reached out to DeepMind to see if the Google subsidiary has anything to add to that prognosis.

"I think it's entirely plausible," he said, "but I'm not going to be surprised if it doesn't happen by then."

Related Topics:#AGI #google #Science featured Technology

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Science & Technology

Russia fines Google more than the world’s total GDP over YouTube bans

Published

5 days ago

October 31, 2024

Ariana News

Russia has fined Google $2.5 decillion after the US tech giant took action against pro-Kremlin TV channels on YouTube following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia imposed a daily fine four years ago - a fine that has since swelled to an unprecedented level - ($20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 - a 33-digit figure).

To put this into perspective, global GDP reaches an estimated $110 thousand billion (12-digit figure), according to the IMF.

Speaking to Russia’s TASS news agency, one expert, Roman Yankovsky from the HSE Institute of Education, said Google “clearly will not pay this penalty, and the Russian Federation will not be able to recover this money from the company."

Euronews reported that a short calculation shows that he is right.

Google's holding company, Alphabet, has a market capitalisation of slightly more than $2 trillion. Even with earnings of $80.54 billion from the last quarter, the tech giant doesn’t seem to be able to afford to pay the fine.

Google first barred pro-Moscow channel Tsargrad TV, which is owned by oligarch Konstantin Malofeev, four years ago.

At the time, Google was fined a daily penalty of 100,000 roubles and warned that amount would double every 24 hours if it went unpaid.

The original fine has been compounded by further penalties after Google eventually blocked a total of 17 Russian TV channels as a result of international sanctions, The Telegraph reported.

The tech giant now owes a staggering $2.5 decillion.

Science & Technology

Apple launches new iPad mini with AI features

Apple said it would roll out the first set of AI features in the U.S. version of the English language this month through a software update with iPadOS 18.1.

Published

3 weeks ago

October 16, 2024

Ariana News

Apple on Tuesday launched its new generation of the iPad mini packed with AI features including writing tools and an improved Siri assistant, as the iPhone maker races to boost its devices with artificial-intelligence capabilities, Reuters reported.

The new iPad mini is powered by Apple's A17 Pro chip, which is used in the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max models. With a six-core central processing unit, the A17 Pro would boost CPU performance by 30% compared to the current generation iPad minis and is central to running Apple Intelligence, Apple's AI software.

Apple said it would roll out the first set of AI features in the U.S. version of the English language this month through a software update with iPadOS 18.1.

The features will be available for iPads with A17 Pro or M1 chips and later generations, Apple said, adding it will roll out additional features including image-generation tools, Genmoji and ChatGPT-powered capabilities over the next several months, read the report.

Apple in September unveiled its long-awaited, AI-boosted iPhone 16 lineup, but with the AI features still in test mode, the company failed to excite some investors while early sales data raised some questions around demand.

Still, research firm Canalys on Monday said the iPhone 16 would help Apple's sales in the fourth quarter and drive momentum into the first half of 2025, after Apple reached a record high third-quarter shipments.

The iPad mini, starting at $499, is available for pre-orders starting on Tuesday and will begin arriving to customers and Apple store locations next week, Apple said.

Science & Technology

Iran sends satellites to Russia for rocket launch

In September, Iran carried out its second satellite launch this year using a rocket built by its Revolutionary Guards

Published

3 weeks ago

October 13, 2024

Ariana News

Iran has sent two locally made satellites to Russia to be put into orbit by a Russian space vehicle, the semi-official news agency Tasnim reported on Saturday, in the latest space cooperation between the two U.S.-sanctioned countries.

The development of Kowsar, a high-resolution imaging satellite, and Hodhod, a small communications satellite, is the first substantial effort by Iran's private space sector, the report said.

Russia sent Iranian satellites into orbit in February and in 2022, when U.S. officials voiced concern over space cooperation between Russia and Iran, fearing the satellite will not only help Russia in Ukraine but also help Iran monitor potential military targets in Israel and the wider Middle East, Reuters reported.

Kowsar could be used in agriculture, natural resource management, environmental monitoring, and disaster management, Tasnim said.

Hodhod is designed for satellite-based communications and could be used in remote areas with little access to terrestrial networks.

In September, Iran carried out its second satellite launch, this year using a rocket built by its Revolutionary Guards.

The launch came as the United States and European countries accuse Tehran of transferring ballistic missiles to Russia that could be used in its war with Ukraine. Iran has denied this.