Science & Technology
Google AI chief says there’s a 50% chance we’ll hit AGI in just 5 years

More than a decade ago, the co-founder of Google’s DeepMind artificial intelligence lab predicted that by 2028, AI will have a half-and-half shot of being about as smart as humans — and now, he’s holding firm on that forecast.
In an interview with tech podcaster Dwarkesh Patel, DeepMind co-founder Shane Legg said that he still thinks that researchers have a 50-50 chance of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), a stance he publicly announced at the very end of 2011 on his blog, Futurism reported.
It’s a notable prediction considering the exponentially growing interest in the space. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has long advocated for an AGI, a hypothetical agent that is capable of accomplishing intellectual tasks as well as a human, that can be of benefit to all. But whether we’ll ever be able to get to that point — let alone agree on one definition of AGI — remains to be seen.
Legg apparently began looking towards his 2028 goalpost all the way back in 2001 after reading “The Age of Spiritual Machines,” the groundbreaking 1999 book by fellow Google AI luminary Ray Kurzweil that predicts a future of superhuman AIs.
“There were two really important points in his book that I came to believe as true,” he explained. “One is that computational power would grow exponentially for at least a few decades. And that the quantity of data in the world would grow exponentially for a few decades.”
Paired with an understanding of the trends of the era, such as the deep learning method of teaching algorithms to “think” and process data the way human brains do, Legg wrote back at the start of the last decade that in the coming ones, AGI could well be achieved — so long as “nothing crazy happens like a nuclear war.”
Today, the DeepMind co-founder said that there are caveats to his prediction that the AGI era will be upon us by the end of this decade.
The first, broadly, is that definitions of AGI are reliant on definitions of human intelligence — and that kind of thing is difficult to test precisely because the way we think is complicated.
“You’ll never have a complete set of everything that people can do,” Legg said — things like developing episodic memory, or the ability to recall complete “episodes” that happened in the past, or even understanding streaming video. But if researchers could assemble a battery of tests for human intelligence and an AI model were to perform well enough against them, he continued, then “you have an AGI.”
When Patel asked if there could be a single simple test to see whether an AI system had reached general intelligence, such as beating Minecraft, Legg pushed back.
“There is no one thing that would do it, because I think that’s the nature of it,” the AGI expert said. “It’s about general intelligence. So I’d have to make sure [an AI system] could do lots and lots of different things and it didn’t have a gap.”
The second biggest caveat, Legg added, was the ability to scale AI training models way, way up — a worthy point given how much energy AI companies are already using to churn out large language models like OpenAI’s GPT-4.
“There’s a lot of incentive to make a more scalable algorithm to harness all this computing data,” Legg explained. “So I thought it would be very likely that we’ll start to discover scalable algorithms to do this.”
Asked where he thought we stand today on the path to AGI, Legg said that he thinks computational power is where it needs to be to make it happen, and the “first unlocking step” would be to “start training models now with the scale of the data that is beyond what a human can experience in a lifetime” — a feat he believes the AI industry is ready to achieve.
All that said, Legg reiterated his personal stance that he only believes there’s a 50 percent chance researchers will achieve AGI before the end of this decade, and Futurism has reached out to DeepMind to see if the Google subsidiary has anything to add to that prognosis.
“I think it’s entirely plausible,” he said, “but I’m not going to be surprised if it doesn’t happen by then.”
Science & Technology
Meta releases new AI model Llama 4
Meta said in a statement that the Llama 4 Scout and Llama 4 Maverick are its “most advanced models yet” and “the best in their class for multimodality.”

Meta Platforms on Saturday released the latest version of its large language model (LLM) Llama, called the Llama 4 Scout and Llama 4 Maverick.
Meta said Llama is a multimodal AI system. Multimodal systems are capable of processing and integrating various types of data including text, video, images and audio, and can convert content across these formats.
Meta said in a statement that the Llama 4 Scout and Llama 4 Maverick are its “most advanced models yet” and “the best in their class for multimodality.”
Meta added that Llama 4 Maverick and Llama 4 Scout will be open source software. It also said it was previewing Llama 4 Behemoth, which it called “one of the smartest LLMs in the world and our most powerful yet to serve as a teacher for our new models.”
Big technology firms have been investing aggressively in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure following the success of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which altered the tech landscape and drove investment into machine learning.
The Information reported on Friday that Meta had delayed the launch of its LLM’s latest version because during development, Llama 4 did not meet Meta’s expectations on technical benchmarks, particularly in reasoning and math tasks.
The company was also concerned that Llama 4 was less capable than OpenAI’s models in conducting humanlike voice conversations, the report added.
Meta plans to spend as much as $65 billion this year to expand its AI infrastructure, amid investor pressure on big tech firms to show returns on their investments.
Science & Technology
‘Massive cyberattack’ brings down Elon Musk’s X
Digital Trends reported Tuesday that there are reports suggesting X is still having issues

Social media platform X went down intermittently on Monday, with owner Elon Musk blaming an unusually powerful cyberattack.
“We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources. Either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved,” Musk said in a post on X on Monday.
He did not clarify exactly what he meant by “a lot of resources” and his comments drew skepticism from cybersecurity specialists, who pointed out that attacks of this nature — called denials of service — have repeatedly been executed by small groups or individuals.
X faced intermittent outages, according to Downdetector, Reuters reported.
Digital Trends meanwhile reported Tuesday that there are reports suggesting X is still having issues.
Internet industry experts have said X was hit by several waves of ‘denial of service’ throughout Monday.
Musk said in an interview with Fox Business Network’s Larry Kudlow the cyberattack came from IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area.
An industry source told Reuters he disputed Musk’s account, saying that large chunks of the rogue traffic bombarding X could be traced back to IP addresses in the United States, Vietnam, Brazil and other countries, and that the amount of rogue traffic coming directly from Ukraine was “insignificant.”
In any case, denial of service attacks are notoriously hard to trace back to their authors and the IP addresses involved rarely provide any meaningful insight into who was behind them, Reuters reported.
Musk has joined U.S. President Donald Trump, whom he serves as an adviser, in criticizing Ukraine’s continued efforts to fight off a Russian invasion.
Musk said on Sunday that Ukraine’s front line “would collapse” without his Starlink satellite communications service, though he said he would not cut off Ukraine’s access to it.
Science & Technology
NASA says ‘city killer’ asteroid has a 3.1 % chance of striking Earth in 2032
Despite the rising odds, experts say there is no need for alarm

An asteroid that could level a city now has a 3.1-percent chance of striking Earth in 2032, according to NASA data released Tuesday — making it the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting.
Despite the rising odds, experts say there is no need for alarm. The global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation and the James Webb Space Telescope is set to fix its gaze on the object, known as 2024 YR4, next month.
“I’m not panicking,” Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society told AFP.
“Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy and good,” he added, but explained that as astronomers gather more data, the probability will likely edge up before rapidly dropping to zero.
2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27 last year by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile.
Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures suggests it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a worldwide planetary defense collaboration, issued a warning memo on January 29 after the impact probability had crossed one percent. Since then, the figure has fluctuated but continues to trend upward.
NASA’s latest calculations estimate the impact probability at 3.1 percent, up from 1.6 percent last month, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032.
Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, which puts the risk slightly lower at 2.8 percent told AFP that this “is not a crisis at this point in time. This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city.”
If the risk rises over 10 percent, IAWN would issue a formal warning, leading to a “recommendation for all UN members who have territories in potentially threatened areas to start terrestrial preparedness,” explained Moissl.
Unlike the six-mile-wide (10-kilometer-wide) asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, 2024 YR4 is classified as a “city killer” — not a global catastrophe, but still capable of causing significant destruction.
Its potential devastation comes less from its size and more from its velocity, which could be nearly 40,000 miles per hour if it hits.
If it enters Earth’s atmosphere, the most likely scenario is an airburst, meaning it would explode midair with a force of approximately eight megatons of TNT — more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.
But an impact crater cannot be ruled out if the size is closer to the higher end of estimates, said Betts.
The potential impact corridor spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia — though Moissl emphasized it is far too early for people to consider drastic decisions like relocation.
The good news: there’s ample time to act.
NASA’s 2022 DART mission proved that spacecraft can successfully alter an asteroid’s path, and scientists have theorized other methods, such as using lasers to create thrust by vaporizing part of the surface, pulling it off course with a spacecraft’s gravity, or even using nuclear explosions as a last resort. — Agence France-Presse
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