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German Social Democrats beat conservatives in vote to decide Merkel successor

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Germany's Social Democrats narrowly won Sunday's national election, projected results showed, and claimed a "clear mandate" to lead a government for the first time since 2005 and to end 16 years of conservative-led rule under Angela Merkel.

The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) were on track for 26.0% of the vote, ahead of 24.5% for Merkel's CDU/CSU conservative bloc, projections for broadcaster ZDF showed, but both groups believed they could lead the next government.

With neither major bloc commanding a majority, and both reluctant to repeat their awkward "grand coalition" of the past four years, the most likely outcome is a three-way alliance led by either the Social Democrats or Merkel's conservatives.

Agreeing a new coalition could take months, and will likely involve the smaller Greens and liberal Free Democrats (FDP).

"We are ahead in all the surveys now," the Social Democrats' chancellor candidate, Olaf Scholz, said in a round table discussion with other candidates after the vote.

"It is an encouraging message and a clear mandate to make sure that we get a good, pragmatic government for Germany," he added after earlier addressing jubilant SPD supporters.

The SPD's rise heralds a swing left for Germany and marks a remarkable comeback for the party, which has recovered some 10 points in support in just three months to improve on its 20.5% result in the 2017 national election.

Scholz, 63, would become the fourth post-war SPD chancellor after Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schroeder. Finance minister in Merkel's cabinet, he is a former mayor of Hamburg.

Scholz's conservative rival Armin Laschet, signalled his bloc was not ready yet to concede, though his supporters were subdued.

"It hasn't always been the first-placed party that provided the chancellor," Laschet, 60, told the round table. "I want a government where every partner is involved, where everyone is visible - not one where only the chancellor gets to shine," he said in an early attempt to woo smaller parties.

Schmidt ruled in the late 1970s and early 1980s in coalition with the FDP even though his Social Democrats had fewer parliamentary seats than the conservative bloc.

Attention will now shift to informal discussions followed by more formal coalition negotiations, which could take months, leaving Merkel in charge in a caretaker role.

Scholz and Laschet both said they would aim to strike a coalition deal before Christmas.

Merkel plans to step down after the election, making the vote an era-changing event to set the future course of Europe's largest economy.

She has stood large on the European stage almost since taking office in 2005 - when George W. Bush was U.S. president, Jacques Chirac in the Elysee Palace in Paris and Tony Blair British prime minister.

After a domestic-focused election campaign, Berlin's allies in Europe and beyond may have to wait for months before they can see whether the new German government is ready to engage on foreign issues to the extent they would like.

A row between Washington and Paris over a deal for Australia to buy U.S. instead of French submarines has put Germany in an awkward spot between allies, but also gives Berlin the chance to help heal relations and rethink their common stance on China.

On hearing that the SPD were slightly ahead in polls, U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters in Washington: "I'll be darned... They're solid."

On economic policy, French President Emmanuel Macron is eager to forge a common European fiscal policy, which the Greens support but the CDU/CSU and FDP reject. The Greens also want "a massive expansion offensive for renewables".

"Germany will end up with a rather weak chancellor who will struggle to get behind any kind of ambitious fiscal reform at the EU level," said Naz Masraff at political risk consultancy Eurasia.

Whatever coalition ends up in power, Germany's friends can at least take heart that moderate centrism has prevailed, and the populism that has taken hold in other European countries failed to break through.

The projected results for ZDF showed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on track for 10.5%, worse than four years ago when they stormed into the national parliament with 12.6% of the vote, and with all mainstream groupings ruling out a coalition with the party.

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North Korean troops experience mass casualties on Ukraine front lines, White House says

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North Korean forces are experiencing mass casualties on the front lines of Russia's war against Ukraine, with a thousand of their troops killed or wounded in the last week alone in Russia's Kursk region, White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Friday.

The number far exceeds the figure U.S. officials have previously provided, Reuters reported.

"It is clear that Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable and ordering them on hopeless assaults against Ukrainian defenses," Kirby said, describing the North Korean troops' offensive as "massed, dismounted assaults."

North Korea's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and Russia's U.N. mission declined to comment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in his nightly video address, said North Korean forces had sustained "very significant" losses and were being sent into battle with only minimal protection from the Russian forces.

"We see that neither the Russian military nor their North Korean overseers have any interest in ensuring the survival of these North Koreans," he said.

"Everything is set up so that it is impossible for us to capture them. There are instances in which they are executed by their own forces. Russians send them into assaults with minimal protection."

He said Ukrainian forces had managed to take a few North Korean soldiers prisoner "but they were severely wounded and it was not possible to save their lives."

Koreans should not be losing their lives in a war in Europe, he said, and if China was sincere in not wanting the war to expand, "it needs to exert appropriate pressure on Pyongyang."

On Monday, Zelenskiy said more than 3,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed and wounded in Kursk region. He said he was citing preliminary data.

On Dec. 17, a U.S. military official said North Korea had suffered several hundred casualties in Kursk region.

Asked about what ranks the North Korean casualties included, the military official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said it was from lower-level troops to "very near to the top."

In his comments, White House spokesperson Kirby said President Joe Biden would likely approve another security assistance package for Ukraine in coming days.

Earlier this week, Biden condemned Russia's Christmas Day attacks on Ukraine's energy system and some of its cities and asked the Defense Department to continue its surge of weapons to Ukraine.

Reuters was unable to independently verify reports of combat losses or accounts from either side.

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Russian air-defense system downed Azerbaijan plane: Reuters

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Russian air defences downed an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people, Reuters reported citing four sources with knowledge of the preliminary findings of Azerbaijan's investigation into the disaster.

Flight J2-8243 crashed on Wednesday in a ball of fire near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan after diverting from an area of southern Russia where Moscow has repeatedly used air defence systems against Ukrainian drone strikes.

The Embraer passenger jet had flown from Azerbaijan's capital Baku to Grozny, in Russia's southern Chechnya region, before veering off hundreds of miles across the Caspian Sea.

It crashed on the opposite shore of the Caspian after what Russia's aviation watchdog said was an emergency that may have been caused by a bird strike.

Officials did not explain why it had crossed the sea. The nearest Russian airport on the plane's flight path, Makhachkala, was closed on Wednesday morning.

One of the Azerbaijani sources familiar with Azerbaijan's investigation into the crash told Reuters that preliminary results showed the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defence system. Its communications were paralysed by electronic warfare systems on the approach into Grozny, the source said.

"No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft," the source said.

Three other sources confirmed that the Azeri investigation had come to the same preliminary conclusion. Russia's Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

A U.S. official told Reuters on Thursday there were early indications a Russian anti-aircraft system may have struck the plane. Canada said it was deeply concerned by reports that Russian air defence may have struck the aircraft.

"We call on Russia to allow for an open and transparent investigation into the incident and to accept its findings," the Canadian foreign ministry said in a statement on X.

Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Qanat Bozymbaev said he could neither confirm nor deny the thesis that Russian air defences downed the plane.

Asked about the possibility that Russian air defences shot at the plane, the Kazakh transport prosecutor for the region where the plane came down said the investigation had yet to reach a firm conclusion.

The Kremlin, asked before the Reuters report about the idea that the aircraft had been shot at by Russian air defences, said it would be improper to comment until the inquiry was concluded.

"It is wrong to build hypotheses before the conclusions of the investigation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

WRECKAGE

Footage shot by passengers on the plane before it crashed showed oxygen masks down and people wearing life vests. Later footage showed bloodied and bruised passengers climbing out of the plane. There were 29 survivors.

Pictures of the plane wreckage showed what appeared to be shrapnel damage to the tail section of the plane.

Aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions said in an alert to airlines on Wednesday that footage of the wreckage and the circumstances around the air space in southwest Russia indicated the possibility that the airliner was hit by some form of anti-aircraft fire.

Ukrainian military drones have repeatedly targeted Russia's southern regions in recent months, triggering Russian air defences. Russia and Ukraine have been at war since Moscow's invasion of its neighbour in February 2022.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Russian Defence Ministry had reported the downing of 59 Ukrainian drones over several regions.

Some were reportedly shot down in closed air space over regions bordering Ukraine, including the Sea of Azov. Flight operations were reportedly temporarily suspended at Russia’s Kazan Airport due to the activity.

In addition, publicly available ADS-B flight tracking data shows that the Azerbaijani aircraft experienced GPS jamming throughout its flight over southwest Russia, the alert said.

Russia uses advanced electronic jamming equipment to confuse Ukrainian drone location and communication systems and a large number of air defence systems have been deployed to shoot down the drones.

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14 Syrian police killed in ambush as unrest spreads

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Fourteen members of the Syrian police were killed in an "ambush" by forces loyal to the ousted government in the Tartous countryside, the transitional administration said early on Thursday, as demonstrations and an overnight curfew elsewhere marked the most widespread unrest since Bashar al-Assad's removal more than two weeks ago.

Syria's new interior minister said on Telegram that 10 police members were also wounded by what he called "remnants" of the Assad government in Tartous, vowing to crack down on "anyone who dares to undermine Syria's security or endanger the lives of its citizens," Reuters reported.

Earlier, Syrian police imposed an overnight curfew in the city of Homs, state media reported, after unrest there linked to demonstrations that residents said were led by members of the minority Alawite and Shi’ite Muslim religious communities.

Reuters could not immediately confirm the demands of the demonstrators nor the degree of disturbance that took place.

Some residents said the demonstrations were linked to pressure and violence in recent days aimed at members of the Alawite minority, a sect long seen as loyal to Assad, who was toppled by Sunni Islamist rebels on Dec. 8.

Spokespeople for Syria’s new ruling administration led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, a former al Qaeda affiliate, did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the curfew.

State media said the curfew was being imposed for one night, from 6 pm local time (1500 GMT) until 8 am on Thursday morning.

The country's new leaders have repeatedly vowed to protect minority religious groups, who fear the former rebels now in control could seek to impose a conservative form of Islamist government.

Small demonstrations also took place in other areas on or near Syria’s coast, where most of the country’s Alawite minority live, including in Tartous.

The demonstrations took place around the time an undated video was circulated on social networks showing a fire inside an Alawite shrine in the city of Aleppo, with armed men walking around inside and posing near human bodies.

The interior ministry said on its official Telegram account the video dated back to the rebel offensive on Aleppo in late November and the violence was carried out by unknown groups, adding whoever was circulating the video now appeared to be seeking to incite sectarian strife.

The ministry also said some members of the former regime had attacked interior ministry forces in Syria’s coastal area on Wednesday, leaving a number of dead and wounded.

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