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Gen McKenzie to recommend post-withdrawal plan for Afghanistan

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General Frank McKenzie, the Middle East commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Wednesday he will make recommendations to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in early June on how to monitor and fight terrorist groups in Afghanistan from beyond its borders after all American forces withdraw.

McKenzie said negotiations with Afghanistan’s neighbors for overflight rights and troop basing are “moving forward” but will take time.

As a result, he said, the way the United States keeps an eye on the terrorist threat and aids the Afghan military will evolve as agreements are reached or security conditions on the ground change, The Associated Press reported.

He cautioned that this will be a “taxing time” for the Afghan military and “the risk is high.”

Speaking to reporters from The Associated Press and ABC News traveling with him to the Middle East, McKenzie declined to provide details about the recommendations he will make to Austin.

He said he will also provide cost estimates for keeping surveillance aircraft over Afghanistan regularly enough to keep track of terrorist groups after the U.S. pullout is completed.

McKenzie has made it clear that without any bases in neighboring countries, it will require far more aircraft to keep watch over Afghanistan because they will have to fly for four hours to six hours from other U.S. military installations in the Middle East.

The flight distance severely limits the amount of time the aircraft can spend in the air over Afghanistan, AP reported.

Military leaders are grappling with how best to carry out President Joe Biden’s order to withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan by September while still providing support to the Afghan forces and monitoring the threat that prompted the U.S. invasion of the country after the attacks of September 11, 2001.

Commanders have said they will monitor threats from “over the horizon,” to ensure that terrorists cannot again use Afghanistan as a base to launch attacks against the U.S. But they have acknowledged that the U.S. does not yet have any agreements for basing or overflights from any of the neighboring countries.

McKenzie said he is confident the U.S. will get the access it needs. But as yet, there are no firm solutions or decisions.

At the same time, Pentagon leaders and Congress members have expressed concerns that once the U.S. leaves, the Afghan government and its military will be quickly overrun by the Taliban.

The Afghan military, particularly its air force, has been heavily dependent on the U.S. for maintenance and training, as well as for combat air support when its troops are under attack. McKenzie said he believes the Afghans have a “fighting chance” to be successful and defend themselves.

“It’s time for the Afghan military to stand up and show that they can fight alone,” said McKenzie.

“I think it’s going to be a very taxing time for them. I think certainly there is a path for them to preserve what they have now. The risk is high. I don’t want to minimize that.”

He said that while the Taliban have not been attacking the U.S. or coalition troops, the violence against the Afghan people and the country’s military forces has been very high.

U.S. lawmakers have said they believe there is no chance the Taliban will abide by the commitments their leaders made in a February 2020 agreement with the Trump administration, which included engaging in sustained peace negotiations and severing all forms of cooperation with and support for al-Qaeda. Members of Congress also worry that al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group (Daesh) will take advantage of the chaos and regroup, with a goal of attacking the U.S. again.

McKenzie said that both al-Qaeda and IS have been degraded, AP reported.

“Our concern would be that ungoverned spaces open in Afghanistan and they are able to reassert themselves,” he said. “This would not be immediate. I don’t think anybody (thinks) this is something that will happen next month or even in the next six months. But eventually they will gather their strength again and they’ll be a threat to our homeland.”

Washington’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, told a House hearing Tuesday that it is unduly pessimistic to predict that the Kabul government or Afghan military will be quickly overrun by the Taliban once U.S. and coalition forces withdraw.

He said the Taliban have reason not to push for a military victory and instead pursue a negotiated political settlement that could give them international legitimacy and removal from certain American and United Nations sanctions. He recently met with Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar, as part of a round of consultations with interested parties.

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Continued aid to Afghanistan vital for regional security: Kazakh president

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Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has emphasized the continuation of humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, stating that the ongoing provision of such aid plays an important role in ensuring regional security.

Speaking at the international conference “Peace and Trust” in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan, Tokayev described addressing complex humanitarian challenges and the reconstruction of Afghanistan as a necessity.

“To ensure regional security, we consider it essential to continue providing assistance to Afghanistan, including by strengthening international efforts to address complex humanitarian issues and the reconstruction of this country. Kazakhstan remains committed to supporting the people of Afghanistan through humanitarian aid, educational projects, trade development, and food security initiatives,” he said.

Meanwhile, experts believe that sustainable improvement of the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan requires broad cooperation from the international community and support for the country’s economic development.

“Investment can be defined as one of the fundamental drivers of the economic cycle, and whenever Afghan traders do not take their money out of the country and instead invest domestically, it naturally leads to greater growth and dynamism in Afghanistan’s economy,” said Abdul Zahoor Modabber, an economic analyst.

As the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan continues, reports by international relief organizations indicate that millions of citizens of the country are in urgent need of food, health, and livelihood assistance.
The reduction in funding for aid organizations, the impacts of climate change, and the return of migrants have increased concerns about a further deterioration of the humanitarian situation in the country.

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Islamic Emirate declines to attend Tehran meeting on Afghanistan

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The Islamic Emirate has announced that it will not participate in the upcoming meeting of special envoys of regional countries on Afghanistan, scheduled to be held in Tehran, despite having received an invitation.

In a statement, Zia Ahmad Takal, Head of Information and Public Relations at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said the Islamic Emirate has maintained continuous and active engagement with all regional countries through various organizations, regional formats, and bilateral mechanisms, achieving notable progress in promoting mutual understanding and regional cooperation.

The statement added that Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs believes regional cooperation should be advanced by strengthening existing mechanisms and formats within the region.

Tehran is set to host the meeting next week, with special envoys from Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, China, and Russia expected to attend.

 
 
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Sirajuddin Haqqani: A government that intimidates its people is not a true government

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Khalifa Sirajuddin Haqqani, Minister of Interior of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, said during a visit to Khost province on Friday that any government which rules through fear cannot be considered a true government.

“A government is one that is loved by its people, one that serves them with respect and compassion, and from whose behavior people learn ethics and sincerity,” he said.

Haqqani also stressed that Afghans who opposed the Islamic Emirate in the past should be tolerated and treated in a way that helps eliminate hostility and animosity, paving the way for national cohesion.

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