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Climate Change

Explainer: How El Nino is helping drive heatwaves and extreme weather

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Countries around the world from China to the United States are battling heatwaves, with the onset of the climate phenomenon El Nino helping push temperatures higher.

Scientists told Reuters that climate change and El Nino are the major drivers of extreme heat that have seen temperature records broken in Beijing and Rome, while leaving some 80 million Americans under excessive heat warnings.

El Nino is a natural phenomenon that in addition to contributing to higher temperatures in many parts of the world, also drives tropical cyclones in the Pacific and boosts rainfall and flood risk in parts of the Americas, Asia and elsewhere.

In June, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now under way. The past three years have been dominated by the cooler La Nina pattern.

Scientists have warned that this year looks particularly worrying. The last time a strong El Nino was in full swing, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. Meteorologists expect that this El Nino, coupled with excess warming from climate change, will see the world grapple with record-high temperatures.

Experts are also concerned about what is going on in the ocean. An El Nino means that waters in the Eastern Pacific are warmer than usual. Globally, sea temperatures hit new records for the months of May and June, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. That could supercharge extreme weather, Reuters reported.

"We're in unprecedented territory," said Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

This year's El Nino could lead to global economic losses of $3 trillion, according to a study published last month in the journal Science, shrinking GDP as extreme weather decimates agricultural production, manufacturing, and helps spread disease.

Governments in vulnerable countries are taking note. Peru has set aside $1.06 billion to deal with El Nino's impacts and climate change, while the Philippines — at risk from cyclones — has formed a special government team to handle the predicted fallout.

WHAT CAUSES AN EL NINO?
El Nino is a natural climate pattern borne out of unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacific.

It forms when the trade winds blowing east-to-west along the equatorial Pacific slow down or reverse as air pressure changes, although scientists are not entirely sure what kicks off the cycle.

Because the trade winds affect the sun-warmed surface waters, a weakening causes these warm western Pacific waters to slosh back into the colder central and eastern Pacific basins.

During the 2015-16 El Nino — the strongest such event on record — anchovy stocks off the coast of Peru crashed amid this warm water incursion. And nearly a third of the corals on Australia's Great Barrier Reef died. In too-warm waters corals will expel living algae, causing them to calcify and turn white.

This build-up of warm water in the eastern Pacific also transfers heat high into the atmosphere through convection, generating thunderstorms.

"When El Nino moves that warm water, it moves where thunderstorms happen," said NOAA meteorologist Tom DiLiberto. "That's the first atmospheric domino to fall."

HOW DOES EL NINO AFFECT THE WORLD'S WEATHER?
This shift in storm activity affects the current of fast-flowing air that moves weather around the world — called the subtropical jet stream — pushing its path southward and straightening it out into a flatter stream that delivers similar weather along the same latitudes.

"If you're changing where the storm highway goes ... you're changing what kind of weather we would expect to see," DiLiberto said.

During an El Nino, the southern United States experiences cooler and wetter weather, while parts of the U.S. West and Canada are warmer and drier.

Hurricane activity falters as the storms fail to form in the Atlantic due to changes in the wind, sparing the United States. But tropical cyclones in the Pacific get a boost, with storms often spinning toward vulnerable islands.

Some parts of Central and South America experience heavy rainfall, although the Amazon rainforest tends to suffer from drier conditions.

And Australia endures extreme heat, drought and bushfires.

El Nino could offer a reprieve to the Horn of Africa, which recently suffered five consecutive failed rainy seasons. El Nino brings more rain to the Horn, unlike the triple-dip La Nina, which desiccated the region.

Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred about every two to seven years on average, with El Nino lasting 9 to 12 months. La Nina, which takes hold when waters are cooler in the Eastern Pacific, can last one to three years.

IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING EL NINO?
How climate change might be affecting El Nino is "a very big research question," said DiLiberto. While climate change is doubling down on the impacts from El Nino — layering heat on top of heat, or excess rainfall on top of excess rainfall — it's less clear if climate change is influencing the phenomenon itself.

Scientists are not sure whether climate change will shift the balance between El Nino and La Nina, making one pattern more or less frequent. If ocean temperatures are rising across the board, it is unlikely the cycle would change, scientists said, as the basic mechanics behind the phenomenon stay the same.

However, if some parts of the ocean are warming faster than others, that could influence how El Nino plays out by amplifying temperature differences.

Climate Change

COP29’s $300 billion deal ‘insufficient’ to fight climate change

After days of negotiations in Azerbaijan, rich countries agreed to raise their contribution from $250 billion to $300 billion a year by 2035

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The finance agreement reached at the COP29 summit late Sunday night has sparked outrage around the world as countries criticize negotiators for failing to meet the scale of the challenge.

After days of negotiations in Azerbaijan, rich countries agreed to raise their contribution from $250 billion to $300 billion a year by 2035.

According to BBC, the African Group of Negotiators described it as "too little, too late"; the representative from India dismissed the money as "a paltry sum" and a group of NGOs warned that the $300 billion pledge does not go far enough to help those most vulnerable to climate change.

Poorer countries had asked for $1.3 trillion to help them fight the climate battle.

Meanwhile, China and India are still defined by the United Nations as "developing" countries and as a result they have no formal obligation to cut their greenhouse gas emissions or to provide financial help to poorer countries.

Both countries are technically eligible to receive climate aid, although China chooses not to do so. Beijing, one of the world's largest economies, does step in to support countries with the impact of global warming, via bilateral agreements.

India, however, does accept support from "developed" nations.

Speaking to BBC, one source said there had been one positive during the summit. This was China.

"The only bright spot in all of this is China," the source said.

According to him, not only was Beijing’s negotiating style markedly different to previous years, but "China could be stepping forward".

In the past, China has released minimal information about its climate policies and plans, but this year, for the first time, officials said they have paid developing countries more than $24 billion for climate action since 2016.

“That’s serious money, almost nobody else is at that level,” another COP insider said.

Where does Afghanistan fit into this?

Afghanistan is considered one of the most vulnerable countries when it comes to climate change and for the first time in three years, the Islamic Emirate was able to participate at the summit.

Leading a delegation to COP29 was Matuil Haq Khalis, who’s head of the country’s environment protection agency. He said Afghanistan needs international support to deal with extreme weather like erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts and flash floods.

“All the countries must join hands and tackle the problem of climate change,” said Khalis.

Afghanistan has been hard hit by climate change, with a recent assessment by experts ranking it the sixth most climate vulnerable country in the world.

In March, northern Afghanistan experienced heavy rains resulting in flash floods, killing over 300 people. Climate scientists have found that extreme rainfall has gotten 25% heavier over the last 40 years in the country.

Khalis meanwhile said Afghanistan has prepared national action plans to deal with climate change and will be updating its climate goals within the next few months.

Contributing nations

There are 23 “developed” nations, which are industrialized countries with a strong economy, that have to contribute and reach the annual target of $300 billion.

However, many developed countries want to see this group expanded, arguing that the global landscape has shifted a lot since these classifications were drawn up as part of the original UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992.

China, India and the Gulf states, for example, are still classed as developing nations despite their increasing contributions to global warming.

Outcry over deal reached

Sunday’s night’s finance deal has sparked heated reaction from developing nations but some global leaders, however, maintain that the agreement will keep climate action going.

US President Joe Biden said: "While there is still substantial work ahead of us to achieve our climate goals, today’s outcome puts us one significant step closer".

EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, who attended the talks, said COP29 "will be remembered as the start of a new era on climate finance" and the deal was "an ambitious and realistic goal and an increased contributor base".

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said: "I had hoped for a more ambitious outcome - on both finance and mitigation - to meet the scale of the great challenge we face, but the agreement reached provides a base on which to build."

But for many others, the deal was not welcomed.

ActionAid UK described the agreement as "a complete catastrophe and farce" and warned the amount is "a drop in the ocean" compared with "the trillions needed to help climate-hit communities".

Environmental group Friends of Earth said the talks have "failed to solve the question of climate finance", adding that developing nations are being "hammered by climate extremes"

India’s representative meanwhile lashed out and said the $300 billion deal showed that intense frustration still remained over the agreement.

“We cannot accept it … the proposed goal will not solve anything for us. [It is] not conducive to climate action that is necessary to the survival of our country,” Chandni Raina told the conference, saying the amount was too small.

Raina said the decision-making process was unfair and excluded nations, a comment which was met with cheers and applause in the room.

Meanwhile, Nigeria's envoy Nkiruka Maduekwe described the deal as an "insult".

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Climate Change

COP29 climate talks: What is needed for a deal by Friday’s deadline?

The talks, which began on Nov. 11, are due to end on Friday at 2pm but COP summits have a history of running long,

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Marathon COP29 climate talks enter their final stretch on Wednesday when the Azerbaijani hosts are due to publish an update on negotiations so far as the summit seeks to agree a new goal on issues including climate finance.

The talks, which began on Nov. 11, are due to end on Friday afternoon but COP summits have a history of running long, Reuters reported.

Below is a breakdown of the known sticking points and what happens next:

DRAFT TEXTS

Officials spent the first week trying to agree to deals across a range of different issues including finance, carbon markets, the future of fossil fuels and efforts to mitigate the rise in global temperatures.

Now, the outstanding items have been handed over to ministers so they can use their political clout to try to get agreements across the line.

The next steps are about trying to whittle down draft texts containing a huge range of wording options into a final document that can be adopted by consensus at the end of the summit.

Draft texts will be published periodically by the Azerbaijani presidency as they zero in on an acceptable deal.

CLIMATE FINANCE GOAL

The primary aim of COP29 is to agree a new target for how much money should be provided to developing countries to help them adapt to climate-fuelled weather disasters and transition to cleaner energy systems.

A previous goal to provide $100 billion per year expires in 2025. The new goal needs to be $1 trillion annually by the end of the decade, according to experts.

The focus in the negotiating rooms has been on defining the structure of a new target, including what counts as climate finance and who needs to pay in. Only once that is agreed are parties expected to start talking about the size of the target.

Issues to iron out include whether countries such as China should be counted among the richer core donors, and the degree to which countries should provide finance in the form of grants or loans.

A text has been scheduled for publication on Wednesday evening.

FOSSIL FUELS

Countries have so far struggled to agree on the right way to follow up on a deal at last year's summit to transition from fossil fuels.

European states want to see that commitment referenced throughout any deal at Baku to reinforce the importance of following through with firm action. Others, including the Arab Group of states, argue it does not need to be.

If past COPs are anything to go by, the moment any deal text is published, delegates will be searching for the phrase "fossil fuels" to see if there is any sign of backsliding.

CARBON MARKETS

Talks in Baku began with an early deal on some of the quality standards that would govern a global market for carbon credits, but there is still much to be agreed on, including how to track trades and disclosure rules.

If fully agreed, market watchers expect a U.N.-backed global market could fund billions of dollars of projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from projects such as reforestation.

Scrutiny of the details is intense amid concern that without watertight regulation carbon credits may not deliver the benefits they claim.

FINAL HOURS

COPs rarely finish on time. COP28 in Dubai closed almost a full day after the initial deadline; COP27 in Egypt overran by around 36 hours.

In the final hours, delegations consult intensively in private with the presidency on the proposed deal, often through the night, in search of something that can be adopted by consensus.

Once finalised, every country is called to the main hall to begin an hours-long process of formal approval.

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Climate Change

Toxic smog persists over India’s north; Delhi pollution remains severe

India battles air pollution every winter as cold, heavy air traps dust, emissions, and smoke from farm fires started illegally in the adjoining, farming states of Punjab and Haryana

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Residents in India's northern states woke up to another day of poor air quality on Tuesday, as a layer of dense fog shrouded most of the region, and pollution in the capital Delhi remained severe.

India battles air pollution every winter as cold, heavy air traps dust, emissions, and smoke from farm fires started illegally in the adjoining, farming states of Punjab and Haryana.

The air quality index (AQI) touched a peak of 491 in Delhi on Monday, forcing the government to introduce restrictions on vehicle movement and construction activities, and schools to conduct classes online.

On Tuesday, Delhi's 24-hour air quality index (AQI) reading was at 488 on a scale of 500, India's Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) said, and at least five stations in the capital reported an AQI of 500, Retuers reported.

CPCB defines an AQI reading of 0-50 as "good" and above 401 as "severe", which it says is a risk to healthy people and "seriously impacts" those with existing diseases.

Swiss group IQAir ranked New Delhi as the world's most polluted city with air quality at a "hazardous" 489, although that was a significant improvement from Monday's 1,081 reading.

Experts say the scores vary because of a difference in the scale countries adopt to convert pollutant concentrations into AQI, and so the same quantity of a specific pollutant may be translated as different AQI scores in different countries.

India's weather department said a shift in the fog layer towards the northern state of Uttar Pradesh had helped improve visibility over Delhi.

Visibility dropped to zero metres in Uttar Pradesh's capital Agra, which lies southeast of Delhi. The Taj Mahal, India's famed monument of love, has been obscured by toxic smog for nearly a week.

The strict measures to mitigate the impact of high pollution have hurt production at more than 3.4 million micro, small and medium enterprises in the nearby states of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi, local media reported.

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