Climate Change
Explainer: How El Nino is helping drive heatwaves and extreme weather
Countries around the world from China to the United States are battling heatwaves, with the onset of the climate phenomenon El Nino helping push temperatures higher.
Scientists told Reuters that climate change and El Nino are the major drivers of extreme heat that have seen temperature records broken in Beijing and Rome, while leaving some 80 million Americans under excessive heat warnings.
El Nino is a natural phenomenon that in addition to contributing to higher temperatures in many parts of the world, also drives tropical cyclones in the Pacific and boosts rainfall and flood risk in parts of the Americas, Asia and elsewhere.
In June, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now under way. The past three years have been dominated by the cooler La Nina pattern.
Scientists have warned that this year looks particularly worrying. The last time a strong El Nino was in full swing, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. Meteorologists expect that this El Nino, coupled with excess warming from climate change, will see the world grapple with record-high temperatures.
Experts are also concerned about what is going on in the ocean. An El Nino means that waters in the Eastern Pacific are warmer than usual. Globally, sea temperatures hit new records for the months of May and June, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. That could supercharge extreme weather, Reuters reported.
"We're in unprecedented territory," said Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
This year's El Nino could lead to global economic losses of $3 trillion, according to a study published last month in the journal Science, shrinking GDP as extreme weather decimates agricultural production, manufacturing, and helps spread disease.
Governments in vulnerable countries are taking note. Peru has set aside $1.06 billion to deal with El Nino's impacts and climate change, while the Philippines — at risk from cyclones — has formed a special government team to handle the predicted fallout.
WHAT CAUSES AN EL NINO?
El Nino is a natural climate pattern borne out of unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacific.
It forms when the trade winds blowing east-to-west along the equatorial Pacific slow down or reverse as air pressure changes, although scientists are not entirely sure what kicks off the cycle.
Because the trade winds affect the sun-warmed surface waters, a weakening causes these warm western Pacific waters to slosh back into the colder central and eastern Pacific basins.
During the 2015-16 El Nino — the strongest such event on record — anchovy stocks off the coast of Peru crashed amid this warm water incursion. And nearly a third of the corals on Australia's Great Barrier Reef died. In too-warm waters corals will expel living algae, causing them to calcify and turn white.
This build-up of warm water in the eastern Pacific also transfers heat high into the atmosphere through convection, generating thunderstorms.
"When El Nino moves that warm water, it moves where thunderstorms happen," said NOAA meteorologist Tom DiLiberto. "That's the first atmospheric domino to fall."
HOW DOES EL NINO AFFECT THE WORLD'S WEATHER?
This shift in storm activity affects the current of fast-flowing air that moves weather around the world — called the subtropical jet stream — pushing its path southward and straightening it out into a flatter stream that delivers similar weather along the same latitudes.
"If you're changing where the storm highway goes ... you're changing what kind of weather we would expect to see," DiLiberto said.
During an El Nino, the southern United States experiences cooler and wetter weather, while parts of the U.S. West and Canada are warmer and drier.
Hurricane activity falters as the storms fail to form in the Atlantic due to changes in the wind, sparing the United States. But tropical cyclones in the Pacific get a boost, with storms often spinning toward vulnerable islands.
Some parts of Central and South America experience heavy rainfall, although the Amazon rainforest tends to suffer from drier conditions.
And Australia endures extreme heat, drought and bushfires.
El Nino could offer a reprieve to the Horn of Africa, which recently suffered five consecutive failed rainy seasons. El Nino brings more rain to the Horn, unlike the triple-dip La Nina, which desiccated the region.
Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred about every two to seven years on average, with El Nino lasting 9 to 12 months. La Nina, which takes hold when waters are cooler in the Eastern Pacific, can last one to three years.
IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING EL NINO?
How climate change might be affecting El Nino is "a very big research question," said DiLiberto. While climate change is doubling down on the impacts from El Nino — layering heat on top of heat, or excess rainfall on top of excess rainfall — it's less clear if climate change is influencing the phenomenon itself.
Scientists are not sure whether climate change will shift the balance between El Nino and La Nina, making one pattern more or less frequent. If ocean temperatures are rising across the board, it is unlikely the cycle would change, scientists said, as the basic mechanics behind the phenomenon stay the same.
However, if some parts of the ocean are warming faster than others, that could influence how El Nino plays out by amplifying temperature differences.
Climate Change
Kandahar’s Takhtapul district hit hard by ongoing drought
Afghanistan has experienced three consecutive years of drought, including the most devastating drought in 30 years in 2021 and 2022.
Residents of Takhtapul district of Afghanistan’s Kandahar province say they are struggling to survive amid an ongoing drought that has devastated their crops.
This rural community mainly relies on agriculture to survive but climate change has virtually ended any hopes of farming.
Afghanistan has experienced three consecutive years of drought, including the most devastating drought in 30 years in 2021 and 2022.
Climate experts predict that by 2050, 90% of its territory will be affected by drought.
Afghanistan is one of the ten countries most vulnerable to climate change. It's also ranked fourth in overall disaster risk.
Takhtapul residents have spoken out about their plight and said they have sustained extensive losses due to the drought
They said in the past they had made a living off farming, but now due to the severe lack of water, their land has become barren.
They also said this is forcing their youth and younger generation to find work in other provinces or outside the country.
Abdullah, a resident of Takhtapul district of Kandahar, said: "Our youths have gone to Pakistan and other provinces in search of work due to unemployment and drought. There they have wheelbarrows [for day labourer work] or they do other jobs."
On the other hand, local officials say that they are trying to reduce unemployment by launching development projects in this district.
Along with droughts and lack of work for young people, the breakdown of roads, lack of health centers and lack of suitable places for education are among the problems that the residents of this district want to solve.
Climate Change
EU pledges €15 million to WFP to help mitigate climate crisis impact on Afghans
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has welcomed a €15 million (US$15.8 million) contribution from the European Union (EU) for its climate related activities in Afghanistan.
According to a statement issued by the EU on Thursday, this contribution will help local communities prepare for natural disasters and face the devastating effects of climate change, and support farmers for more productive and sustainable agriculture.
So far this year, more than 160,000 people have been affected by flooding in Afghanistan. Floods have destroyed almost 20,000 homes, and thousands of hectares of agricultural land.
“The European Union is committed to assisting the people of Afghanistan in adapting to climate change, which is severely threatening food security and livelihoods notably of rural communities, said the EU Chargée d’Affaires to in Afghanistan, Veronika Boskovic Pohar.
“Climate-related shocks also exacerbate host communities’ capacity to support internally displaced people and returnees from neighboring countries, and they discourage farmers in poppy-cultivating areas from sustainably shifting to licit crops.
“This latest contribution increases the European Union’s steady support to WFP’s resilience programme in Afghanistan to a total EUR 85.1 million since 2022”, she said.
Harald Mannhardt, WFP Deputy Country Director in Afghanistan, said: “This latest funding from the European Union comes at a critical moment as WFP earlier this year was forced to halt projects across the country due to a massive funding shortfall.”
Afghanistan is currently ranked seventh on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index of countries most vulnerable and least prepared to adapt to climate change.
Climate Change
Malaysia records six months of rain in just five days
One of the worst hit areas was Kelantan which recorded 1,442mm of rain between November 26 and 30
Six months worth of Malaysia’s average annual rainfall fell within five days across the east coast of the country last week, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said early Tuesday.
One of the worst hit areas was Kelantan which recorded 1,442mm of rain between November 26 and 30.
Ibrahim said the high rainfall led to flooding that forced a large number of people in Kelantan and Terengganu to be evacuated.
The recorded rainfall at Irrigation and Drainage Department stations in Tanah Merah and Tumpat, exceeded 1,167mm in just five days.
“According to the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia), the reading (in Kelantan) was at 1,442mm, an extraordinarily high level of rainfall. In Terengganu, MetMalaysia’s Besut station recorded 1,761mm of rain during the same period.
“Overall, the (average) rainfall was 1,349mm, far beyond our expectations,” Anwar told the Dewan Rakyat (Parliament) on Tuesday.
He also said the government is preparing for the forecast monsoon surge as announced by MetMalaysia, expected to start after Dec 8.
By Tuesday, some residents in the town of Tumpat were returning to submerged homes and shops as deadly floodwaters eased in some areas.
People who returned to their homes found many had collapsed, with parts of walls, roofs and broken furniture lying scattered in pools of water.
Muhamad Alim, a 56-year-old shopkeeper whose food store was inundated, recalled fast-rising waters in his home and his grandchildren crying as the flood surged on Saturday night.
"Electricity was cut off, and there was no water supply. So, we were stuck, sitting there as if we were in the middle of the sea, surrounded by water," he told Reuters.
"You could hear the sound of water rushing cutting through the silence of the night."
Six people have died in Malaysia and more than 150,000 were evacuated during the height of the floods last week, government data showed.
In Thailand, the death toll is 25, and more than 300,000 households were still affected, the interior ministry said.
The number of people in temporary shelters in Malaysia fell to just under 95,000 on Tuesday morning, though the authorities remain on guard for a second wave of floods this week.
Malaysia's Meteorological Department expects a wind convergence to begin on Tuesday, potentially bringing heavy showers, with a monsoon surge to follow on Dec. 8.
In Thailand, the Meteorological Department warned people in the south of the country to beware of heavy to very heavy rains and possible flash flooding and overflows from Dec. 3-5.
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