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Expert foresees shift in US policy on Afghanistan under Biden
With less than 50 days before president-elect Joe Biden takes office, speculation is growing as to how the US counterterrorism policies will shift under a new administration, with one expert saying it is naive to think the Taliban will stick to its promises, work in good faith with the Afghan government and break ties with al-Qaeda.
Jason Blazakis, a professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and director of its Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism, wrote in an opinion article published in The Hill on Thursday that it is anticipated that Biden’s incoming foreign policy team will reinvigorate US multilateral counterterrorism efforts at the United Nations and elsewhere.
Blazakis stated that US policies on Iraq and Afghanistan will likely shift, “given that ISIS remains a threat to stability in the Near East and the al-Qaeda core and ISIS branch known as Khorasan remain active in Southwest Asia (including Afghanistan).”
Blazakis said that Biden’s security team is unlikely to drastically increase troop presence in Afghanistan or Iraq, but if the stability in the respective countries continue to devolve, “observers should expect some level of redeployment, a significant increase in bilateral and multilateral capacity-building efforts to shore up counterpart security, and an expansion of programmatic efforts to counter violent extremism.”
He said that since outgoing President Donald Trump’s move to withdraw troops from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, “ISIS brazenly launched an alarming number of attacks.”
“The Trump peace agreement with the Taliban (in February) will create an atmosphere, because of US troop withdrawal, for al-Qaeda to regain sanctuary and finally regroup after two decades of being on its heels,” he said.
“Believing that the Taliban will fulfill its promises and work in good faith with the Afghan government and break its relationship with al Qaeda is naive.
“In October, the Taliban demonstrated its continued resolve to fight when it killed more than 40 Afghan police officials in Helmand Province,” he said.
Blazakis stated that Biden inherits a challenging national security environment, and efforts to counter threats including ISIS and al-Qaeda remain paramount.
“But human rights considerations must be fundamental to the Biden team’s application of counterterrorism power. Mistakes of the past, such as drone targeting that has resulted in too many civilian casualties, must be avoided,” he said.
Pointing out that the former Obama administration’s security team recognized this late in then president Barack Obama’s second term but then ordered a report on civilian deaths associated with US drones.
“The Trump national security team canceled the report last year, setting back efforts to improve transparency in the conduct of counterterrorism. Transparency, accountability, oversight, and regional and multilateral cooperation to mitigate terror and extremism must be the principles that guide the Biden team’s fight against bad actors,” Blazakis stated.
If these principles are not adhered to, mistakes of the past will be repeated and human rights will continue to be eroded, he added.
Turkish intelligence agents have captured a senior member of Daesh near the Durand Line, reportedly preventing planned suicide attacks in Turkey and other countries, according to Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency on Monday.
The suspect, identified as Mehmet Goren, is a Turkish citizen. He was apprehended during a covert operation and transferred to Turkey. Details on the timing of the operation or the involvement of Afghan and Pakistani authorities were not disclosed.
According to the report, Goren had risen through the ranks of Daesh and was allegedly tasked with carrying out suicide bombings in Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Europe.
Daesh has a history of deadly attacks in Turkey, including the January 1, 2017 shooting at an Istanbul nightclub that killed 39 people.
Anadolu Agency reported that Goren’s arrest also provided intelligence on the group’s recruitment strategies and planned activities.
Dozens of needy families in Kabul’s fifth district have received essential winter assistance from the Bayat Foundation, as part of ongoing efforts to ease hardship during the cold season and worsening economic conditions.
According to foundation officials, the aid package includes staple food items such as flour, rice, and cooking oil, along with warm blankets to help families cope with freezing temperatures. Haji Mohammad Ismail, Deputy Head of Bayat Foundation, said the distribution began in Kabul and will soon be expanded to other provinces.
“Our assistance includes flour, rice, cooking oil, and blankets,” Ismail said. “Today, we started distributing these items in Kabul’s fifth district, and God willing, the aid will reach other provinces in the near future.”
Afghanistan continues to face widespread poverty, unemployment, and food insecurity, with many families struggling to meet basic needs, particularly during winter when access to work and heating becomes more difficult.Humanitarian organizations and charitable foundations have stepped up relief efforts to support those most affected.
Beneficiaries welcomed the assistance, describing it as a lifeline. “May God bless you for helping the poor. We had nothing and no work,” said one recipient. Another added, “Thank you for your help. Our flour was almost finished.”
Bayat Foundation officials stressed that winter aid distributions will continue in Kabul and other provinces in the coming days, as part of their broader commitment to supporting needy families across the country.
Since the Islamic Emirate came to power, approximately 6.8 million Afghans have returned home, either voluntarily or forcibly, from neighboring countries and other nations, according to the Minister of Refugees and Repatriation.
Mawlawi Abdul Kabir, speaking at a meeting on finalizing a draft plan for a permanent migration solution in Afghanistan, added that 1.3 million Afghans have been internally displaced due to natural disasters during the same period.
With winter approaching, widespread poverty and severe cold are threatening thousands of lives. Meanwhile, the forced expulsion of Afghan migrants from neighboring countries, particularly Iran and Pakistan, continues.
The Islamic Emirate has repeatedly urged neighboring states to allow migrants to return voluntarily. According to UNHCR, over two million Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan since the start of 2025.
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