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Expert foresees shift in US policy on Afghanistan under Biden

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With less than 50 days before president-elect Joe Biden takes office, speculation is growing as to how the US counterterrorism policies will shift under a new administration, with one expert saying it is naive to think the Taliban will stick to its promises, work in good faith with the Afghan government and break ties with al-Qaeda.

Jason Blazakis, a professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and director of its Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism, wrote in an opinion article published in The Hill on Thursday that it is anticipated that Biden’s incoming foreign policy team will reinvigorate US multilateral counterterrorism efforts at the United Nations and elsewhere.

Blazakis stated that US policies on Iraq and Afghanistan will likely shift, “given that ISIS remains a threat to stability in the Near East and the al-Qaeda core and ISIS branch known as Khorasan remain active in Southwest Asia (including Afghanistan).”

Blazakis said that Biden’s security team is unlikely to drastically increase troop presence in Afghanistan or Iraq, but if the stability in the respective countries continue to devolve, “observers should expect some level of redeployment, a significant increase in bilateral and multilateral capacity-building efforts to shore up counterpart security, and an expansion of programmatic efforts to counter violent extremism.”

He said that since outgoing President Donald Trump’s move to withdraw troops from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, “ISIS brazenly launched an alarming number of attacks.”

“The Trump peace agreement with the Taliban (in February) will create an atmosphere, because of US troop withdrawal, for al-Qaeda to regain sanctuary and finally regroup after two decades of being on its heels,” he said.

“Believing that the Taliban will fulfill its promises and work in good faith with the Afghan government and break its relationship with al Qaeda is naive.

“In October, the Taliban demonstrated its continued resolve to fight when it killed more than 40 Afghan police officials in Helmand Province,” he said.

Blazakis stated that Biden inherits a challenging national security environment, and efforts to counter threats including ISIS and al-Qaeda remain paramount.

“But human rights considerations must be fundamental to the Biden team’s application of counterterrorism power. Mistakes of the past, such as drone targeting that has resulted in too many civilian casualties, must be avoided,” he said.

Pointing out that the former Obama administration’s security team recognized this late in then president Barack Obama’s second term but then ordered a report on civilian deaths associated with US drones.

“The Trump national security team canceled the report last year, setting back efforts to improve transparency in the conduct of counterterrorism. Transparency, accountability, oversight, and regional and multilateral cooperation to mitigate terror and extremism must be the principles that guide the Biden team’s fight against bad actors,” Blazakis stated.

If these principles are not adhered to, mistakes of the past will be repeated and human rights will continue to be eroded, he added.

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Suhail Shaheen meets with Chinese ambassador to Qatar

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The head of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) political office in Doha, Suhail Shaheen, met with China’s ambassador to Qatar late Monday for talks on bilateral relations, good neighborliness, and trade and investment opportunities between the two countries.

“About the Wakhan road, the export of Afghanistan's fresh fruit to China, the reconstruction of cold stores, China's assistance in the field of medical equipment to the Ministry of Health and good neighborliness between the two countries were discussed,” Shaheen said in a voice message.

China and the Islamic Emirate have been rapidly expanding relations in recent months.

Experts, meanwhile, have said that other countries need to engage with the IEA, as China is doing, in order for Afghanistan to come out of isolation.

Shaheen also met with Katharina Ritz, the head of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) delegation to Afghanistan.

He discussed numerous issues including humanitarian assistance, health sector challenges and climate change.

Both sides emphasized that ICRC activities need to be expanded, considering the needs of the people.

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IFRC reports over half of Afghanistan’s population needs urgent humanitarian aid

Afghanistan ranks among the most vulnerable countries globally to climate change and disaster risks

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The International Federation of Red Crescent (IFRC) has reported that Afghanistan continues to face prolonged and complex humanitarian crises.

IFRC said in a report published on Tuesday, that about 23.7 million people, more than half of Afghanistan’s population, are in urgent need of humanitarian aid.

According to the IFRC, natural disasters, the growing impact of climate change, population displacement, economic challenges, and food insecurity are the main factors contributing to Afghanistan’s ongoing humanitarian crisis.

Afghanistan ranks among the most vulnerable countries globally to climate change and disaster risks. 

The country is also prone to earthquakes, with nearly 400 tremors recorded in the last three years, including significant quakes, such as the 6.3 magnitude in Herat Province in October last year.

The compounding effects of disasters in the country have exacerbated the already fragile situation in Afghanistan, the IFRC’s report read. 

These successive disasters have pushed more Afghans into poverty and heightened their vulnerability. 

In addition, Afghanistan’s economic crisis is widespread, with more than half of households experiencing an economic shock. 

The country’s economy is heavily dependent on foreign aid and remittances, which have declined significantly since the political change in 2021. 

This has resulted in high levels of unemployment, challenging people’s coping mechanisms and thwarting the already fragile economy’s ability to adapt to shocks, the report read.

The IFRC said more than 85 percent of the country’s population is now living below the poverty line.

 

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Maldives recalls envoy to Pakistan over meeting with Afghanistan envoy

The island nation’s foreign ministry said the much publicized meeting had not been sanctioned by the government

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The Maldives government has recalled its top diplomat in Pakistan after he had an unauthorized meeting with an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan envoy in Islamabad. 

The island nation’s foreign ministry said the much publicized meeting between the Maldives High Commissioner Mohamed Thoha and IEA envoy Sardar Ahmad Shakeeb on Friday had not been sanctioned by the government.

Maldives media reported that the foreign ministry stated: “Consequently, appropriate action has been taken by the government of Maldives.” 

Thoha’s name has also been removed from the website of the Maldives mission in Islamabad, and an official source told AFP that he had been recalled.

Since regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021, no country has yet officially recognized the government.

However, the IEA has been making inroads into the diplomatic arena and has official missions now stationed in a number of regional countries. 

 

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