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CIA scrambles for new approach in Afghanistan: NYT reports
As US troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the CIA is reportedly under intense pressure to find new ways to gather intelligence and carry out counterterrorism strikes in the country, the New York Times reported Monday.
But, according to the report, the spy agency has few good options.
The CIA, has been at the heart of the 20-year American presence in Afghanistan, will soon lose bases in the country from where it has run combat missions and drone strikes while closely monitoring the Taliban and other groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (Daesh).
However, the agency’s analysts are warning of the ever-growing risks of a Taliban takeover, the Times reported.
United States officials are in last-minute efforts to secure bases close to Afghanistan for future operations with one focus on Pakistan.
According to the Times, the CIA used a base there for years to launch drone strikes against militants in the country’s western mountains, but was kicked out of the facility in 2011, when US relations with Pakistan soured.
The Times reported that diplomats are also exploring the option of regaining access to bases in former Soviet republics that were used for the Afghanistan war, although they expect that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin would fiercely oppose this.
As the search continues, recent CIA and military intelligence reports on Afghanistan have been increasingly pessimistic, the Times reported.
Intel reports have highlighted gains by the Taliban and other militant groups in the south and east, and warned that Kabul could fall to the Taliban within years and return to becoming a safe haven for militants.
The Times reported that the scramble for bases illustrates how US officials still lack a long-term plan to address security in a country where they have spent trillions of dollars and lost more than 2,400 troops over nearly two decades.
William J. Burns, the CIA director, has acknowledged the challenge the agency faces. “When the time comes for the US military to withdraw, the US government’s ability to collect and act on threats will diminish,” he told senators in April.
Burns meanwhile visited Islamabad last month to meet with the chief of the Pakistani military and the head of the directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence, the country’s military intelligence agency.
In addition to this, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin has had frequent calls with the Pakistani military chief about getting the country’s help for future US operations in Afghanistan, the Times reported.
But according to the report, Burns did not bring up the base issue during his trip to Pakistan, and the visit focused on broader counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries.
However, the Times reported that at least some of Austin’s discussions have been more direct.
Douglas London, a former head of CIA. counterterrorism operations for Afghanistan and Pakistan, told the Times that the agency was likely to rely on a “stay behind” network of informants in Afghanistan who would collect intelligence on the Taliban, al-Qaeda, the stability of the central government and other topics. But without a large CIA presence in the country, he said, vetting the intelligence would be a challenge.
In the short term, the Pentagon is using an aircraft carrier to launch fighter planes in Afghanistan to support the troop withdrawal. But the carrier presence is unlikely to be a long-term solution, and military officials said it would probably redeploy not long after the last US forces leave, the Times reported.
The United States is also stationing MQ-9 Reaper drones in the Persian Gulf region, aircraft that can be used by both the Pentagon and the CIA for intelligence collection and strikes.
But, according to the Times, some officials are wary of these so-called over the horizon options that would require plane and drones to fly as many as nine hours each way for a mission in Afghanistan, which would make the operations more expensive because they require more drones and fuel, and also riskier because reinforcements needed for commando raids could not arrive swiftly during a crisis.
The Times also stated that as Pakistan is a longtime patron of the Taliban, Islamabad is unlikely to sign off on any US strikes against the Taliban that are launched from a base in Pakistan.
The Times also stated that while some American officials believe Pakistan wants to allow US access to a base as long as it can control how it is used, public opinion in the country has been strongly against any renewed presence by the United States.
This comes after Pakistan’s foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, said last month that the government would not allow the US military to return to the country’s air bases.
The Times reported that American diplomats have been exploring options to restore access to bases in Central Asia, including sites in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan but that any negotiations with those countries are likely to take considerable time to work out.
According to the Times, US military and intelligence analysts are now in broad agreement that the Afghan government is likely to have trouble holding on to power.
They believe the Afghan security forces have been depleted by high casualty rates in recent years and that the announcement of the US withdrawal is a psychological blow that could weaken the force.
In addition, the Times reported that some current and former officials are skeptical that remote advising or combat operations will succeed.
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Afghanistan and Russia discuss expanding economic cooperation and boosting investment
Afghanistan’s Prime Minister, Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk in Kabul on Thursday evening, emphasizing the need to strengthen bilateral relations and expand economic cooperation between the two countries.
According to a statement from the Presidential Palace, several senior officials from both countries attended the meeting, including Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and representatives of Russia’s political and economic sectors.
Akhund described Afghanistan’s security and stability as favourable conditions for foreign investment and thanked Moscow for recognizing the Islamic Emirate and supporting Afghanistan in international forums.
Meanwhile, Overchuk praised the security situation and developments in Afghanistan, expressing Russia’s interest in investing in various sectors of the country.
He said around 70 representatives of Russia’s private sector were accompanying the delegation and were expected to hold discussions with relevant ministries and institutions of the Islamic Emirate on trade and investment agreements, as well as ways to address existing obstacles.
The Russian deputy prime minister reaffirmed his country’s support for Afghanistan in various fields.
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Afghanistan and Russia sign 15 economic cooperation agreements worth $103 million
Afghanistan’s private sector and the Russian Federation have signed 15 economic cooperation agreements worth a total of $103 million.
The agreements were signed in the presence of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, and Alexey Overchuk, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister.
Under the agreements, the two sides will cooperate in importing medicines, wheat, flour, and cooking oil into Afghanistan, as well as exporting fresh Afghan fruits, particularly pomegranates, to Russia.
Expanding bilateral trade relations and developing economic cooperation in various sectors are also among the key areas covered by the agreements.
According to officials, the agreements will facilitate two-way exports and imports between the two countries.
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UN warns of deepening water crisis in central Afghanistan amid climate change
The United Nations has warned of worsening water shortages, the impacts of climate change and inadequate infrastructure in Afghanistan’s central highland regions, highlighting growing challenges facing communities in remote areas.
Rabab Fatima, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Afghanistan, raised the concerns during a visit to Bamyan province, where she assessed the living conditions and challenges facing local communities.
Fatima said poor road networks and inadequate infrastructure in remote areas have made it increasingly difficult for residents to access essential services, including healthcare and education.
During her visit to the mountainous central regions of Afghanistan from November 2 to 4, she met with local communities to discuss their daily challenges, as well as opportunities for improving livelihoods and access to basic services.
She also stressed the need to expand healthcare services, establish more medical facilities in underserved areas and strengthen support for girls’ education.
Fatima praised the enthusiasm of students in Bamyan for education and highlighted the growing participation of women in business, describing these developments as encouraging signs for the region’s future.
She called for equal educational and economic opportunities for girls and women, emphasizing the importance of ensuring that remote communities are not left behind.
The visit comes as Afghanistan’s central highlands continue to face significant challenges linked to climate change, water scarcity and limited infrastructure, underscoring the need for sustained support and investment in essential services.
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