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CIA scrambles for new approach in Afghanistan: NYT reports

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As US troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the CIA is reportedly under intense pressure to find new ways to gather intelligence and carry out counterterrorism strikes in the country, the New York Times reported Monday.

But, according to the report, the spy agency has few good options.

The CIA, has been at the heart of the 20-year American presence in Afghanistan, will soon lose bases in the country from where it has run combat missions and drone strikes while closely monitoring the Taliban and other groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (Daesh).

However, the agency’s analysts are warning of the ever-growing risks of a Taliban takeover, the Times reported.

United States officials are in last-minute efforts to secure bases close to Afghanistan for future operations with one focus on Pakistan.

According to the Times, the CIA used a base there for years to launch drone strikes against militants in the country’s western mountains, but was kicked out of the facility in 2011, when US relations with Pakistan soured.

The Times reported that diplomats are also exploring the option of regaining access to bases in former Soviet republics that were used for the Afghanistan war, although they expect that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin would fiercely oppose this.

As the search continues, recent CIA and military intelligence reports on Afghanistan have been increasingly pessimistic, the Times reported.

Intel reports have highlighted gains by the Taliban and other militant groups in the south and east, and warned that Kabul could fall to the Taliban within years and return to becoming a safe haven for militants.

The Times reported that the scramble for bases illustrates how US officials still lack a long-term plan to address security in a country where they have spent trillions of dollars and lost more than 2,400 troops over nearly two decades.

William J. Burns, the CIA director, has acknowledged the challenge the agency faces. “When the time comes for the US military to withdraw, the US government’s ability to collect and act on threats will diminish,” he told senators in April.

Burns meanwhile visited Islamabad last month to meet with the chief of the Pakistani military and the head of the directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence, the country’s military intelligence agency.

In addition to this, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin has had frequent calls with the Pakistani military chief about getting the country’s help for future US operations in Afghanistan, the Times reported.

But according to the report, Burns did not bring up the base issue during his trip to Pakistan, and the visit focused on broader counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries.

However, the Times reported that at least some of Austin’s discussions have been more direct.

Douglas London, a former head of CIA. counterterrorism operations for Afghanistan and Pakistan, told the Times that the agency was likely to rely on a “stay behind” network of informants in Afghanistan who would collect intelligence on the Taliban, al-Qaeda, the stability of the central government and other topics. But without a large CIA presence in the country, he said, vetting the intelligence would be a challenge.

In the short term, the Pentagon is using an aircraft carrier to launch fighter planes in Afghanistan to support the troop withdrawal. But the carrier presence is unlikely to be a long-term solution, and military officials said it would probably redeploy not long after the last US forces leave, the Times reported.

The United States is also stationing MQ-9 Reaper drones in the Persian Gulf region, aircraft that can be used by both the Pentagon and the CIA for intelligence collection and strikes.

But, according to the Times, some officials are wary of these so-called over the horizon options that would require plane and drones to fly as many as nine hours each way for a mission in Afghanistan, which would make the operations more expensive because they require more drones and fuel, and also riskier because reinforcements needed for commando raids could not arrive swiftly during a crisis.

The Times also stated that as Pakistan is a longtime patron of the Taliban, Islamabad is unlikely to sign off on any US strikes against the Taliban that are launched from a base in Pakistan.

The Times also stated that while some American officials believe Pakistan wants to allow US access to a base as long as it can control how it is used, public opinion in the country has been strongly against any renewed presence by the United States.

This comes after Pakistan’s foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, said last month that the government would not allow the US military to return to the country’s air bases.

The Times reported that American diplomats have been exploring options to restore access to bases in Central Asia, including sites in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan but that any negotiations with those countries are likely to take considerable time to work out.

According to the Times, US military and intelligence analysts are now in broad agreement that the Afghan government is likely to have trouble holding on to power.

They believe the Afghan security forces have been depleted by high casualty rates in recent years and that the announcement of the US withdrawal is a psychological blow that could weaken the force.

In addition, the Times reported that some current and former officials are skeptical that remote advising or combat operations will succeed.

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European Parliament to discuss return of Afghan asylum seekers

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Members of the European Parliament’s Subcommittee on Human Rights are set to discuss the return of Afghan refugees and asylum seekers from the EU to Afghanistan in Brussels on Thursday.

The meeting follows recent talks between European Commission officials and representatives appointed by the Islamic Emirate.

European lawmakers will examine the return of Afghan refugees and asylum seekers in light of the human rights situation in Afghanistan.

According to a European Parliament statement, the meeting will also assess the potential implications of returning Afghan migrants to the country.

Human rights organizations have urged that any decision on returns comply with human rights principles, including the principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits returning people to places where they may face serious risks.

The planned discussion has raised concerns among some Afghan migrants in Europe over the possibility of deportation and forced return to Afghanistan.

The Islamic Emirate has previously said it welcomes the voluntary return of Afghan migrants and considers Afghanistan safe for the return of its citizens.

EU statistics show that nearly one million Afghans applied for asylum in European countries between 2013 and 2024, with around half of those applications accepted.

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Afghan soil poses no threat to other countries: Defense Ministry

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The Ministry of Defense says no threat to other countries emanates from Afghan soil, stressing that Islamic Emirate forces are systematically guarding the country’s borders.

The ministry says it will not allow Afghan territory to be used by groups or individuals seeking to threaten other countries.

Sediqullah Nusrat, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense, said an independent government is now in power in Afghanistan and that no group or individual inside the country poses a threat to other countries.

“The policy of the Islamic Emirate is clear: there is an independent government in Afghanistan. There is no group in Afghanistan that poses a threat to other countries, and the Islamic Emirate will never allow such individuals to operate in the country,” he said.

Nusrat added that Islamic Emirate forces are systematically deployed along the borders and will not allow any individual or group to create insecurity or carry out destructive activities.

“We assure Afghans and the countries of the region that border forces are systematically performing their duties along the borders, and there is no need for concern,” he said.

The remarks come as some regional countries and the Collective Security Treaty Organization have periodically raised concerns over security along Afghanistan’s borders. The Islamic Emirate’s leadership has previously dismissed such concerns as baseless.

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Mujahid: Afghanistan ‘undoubtedly’ better off without US presence

Referring to the collapse of the previous government and the US withdrawal in August 2021, Mujahid said Kabul wants to establish normal diplomatic relations with Washington.

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Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesman for the Islamic Emirate, has said Afghanistan is “undoubtedly” better off five years after the withdrawal of US forces, while acknowledging that the country continues to face significant challenges.

Speaking to RT India journalist Runjhun Sharma, Mujahid said the departure of foreign forces had restored Afghanistan’s independence and placed responsibility for rebuilding the country on Afghans themselves.

Referring to the collapse of the previous government and the US withdrawal in August 2021, Mujahid said Kabul wants to establish normal diplomatic relations with Washington, including the reopening of the US Embassy in Afghanistan and the establishment of an Afghan diplomatic mission in the United States.

He also called for the lifting of sanctions against Afghanistan and the release of the country’s frozen assets, arguing that such measures could contribute to improved relations between Kabul and Western countries.

Mujahid described Russia as an important regional partner and said the Islamic Emirate is seeking to expand cooperation with Moscow in areas including trade, reconstruction, fuel and energy.

The Islamic Emirate spokesman also said Kabul would not alter its domestic policies in exchange for international recognition.

Addressing restrictions on women and girls, Mujahid said Afghanistan has its own religious beliefs, national interests and laws, which he argued should be respected.

 

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