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Afghanistan’s GDP to expand by 3% in 2021: ADB

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Afghanistan’s gross domestic product GDP growth will increase by 3% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 after the normalization of business activity and market sentiment.

In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 released on Wednesday, the ADB stated that Afghanistan’s economic growth is expected to recover this year and accelerate next year after a sharp decline in 2020 from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and continued violence and instability.

“Afghanistan’s economy experienced unprecedented disruption in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, political instability and continued violence, which cut remittances, trade, and revenue,” said ADB Country Director for Afghanistan Narendra Singru. 

“With a successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout and post-pandemic recovery, the country should be on track to achieve economic growth this year and in 2022 as business activity and market sentiment normalize,” Singru said.

According to the report, inflation more than doubled from 2.3% in 2019 to 5.6% in 2020 driven by higher food prices. Food price inflation in 2020 was estimated at 10% with the highest spike recorded in April when border closure and panic buying propelled it to 16.6%. Inflation is projected to moderate to 5.0% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022 as food supplies improve.

However, risks remain, including implementing vaccinations in remote and insecure areas, conflict, criminality, corruption, political instability, and broader social fragility. If unaddressed, these could weigh heavily on the economy and impede recovery.

“Supporting the recovery of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) hard hit by the pandemic is pivotal to safeguarding workers’ incomes and livelihoods, according to the report. Before the pandemic, MSMEs were estimated to provide nearly 1.6 million service and industry jobs. The government approved a 2-year support package worth $295 million in October 2020 to improve business conditions and implemented countercyclical measures that include support for MSMEs,” the report read.

The ADB suggests that Afghanistan should facilitate MSME access to markets by developing infrastructure, improving security, combating corruption, simplifying regulation, strengthening property rights and contract enforcement, and promoting innovation and better labor skills in order to improve the business environment.

“Increasing access to credit and further expanding the formal bank sector is also crucial,” the organization said.

“ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region,” the report concluded.

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Mahirood Customs leads Iran’s exports to Afghanistan

More than 1.5 million tonnes of goods were exported to Afghanistan through the border crossing during this period.

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Mahirood Customs in South Khorasan province has become Iran’s main export gateway to Afghanistan, accounting for 36 percent of the country’s total exports to its eastern neighbor, Iranian officials said.

South Khorasan Governor Seyed Mohammadreza Hashemi told local media that Mahirood ranked first among Iran’s 71 active customs points during the first eight months of the current Iranian year.

More than 1.5 million tonnes of goods were exported to Afghanistan through the border crossing during this period.

Official customs figures show that Iran’s total exports to Afghanistan exceeded 4.26 million tonnes in the first eight months of the year, with Mahirood handling the largest share, Hashemi said.

He attributed the strong performance to South Khorasan’s strategic location, improved border infrastructure, effective planning, close cooperation with traders, and coordinated efforts by government agencies.

Hashemi said the expansion of exports via Mahirood Customs is contributing to economic growth, job creation, and stronger economic diplomacy for the province.

He added that continued support for exporters and streamlined customs procedures could further increase South Khorasan’s share of the Afghan market and other target markets in the future.

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Afghanistan, India discuss expanding investment opportunities

Officials said the proposed investments could contribute significantly to job creation, the transfer of technical skills, and the broader growth of Afghanistan’s economy.

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Abdul Mateen Saeed, Deputy Minister for Customs and Revenue at Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance, has held talks with a delegation of Indian investors on potential investment opportunities in the country.

In a statement, the Ministry of Finance said Saeed highlighted the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s recent measures to facilitate trade and investment, noting that additional incentives for traders and industrialists are also being developed.

He emphasized that bilateral relations between Afghanistan and India—particularly in trade and investment—are gradually strengthening.

The Indian investors expressed readiness to invest in several priority sectors, including the manufacture of medicines for human, agricultural and veterinary use, the introduction of modern technologies in agriculture and mining, and the implementation of capacity-building programs for Afghan professionals.

Officials said the proposed investments could contribute significantly to job creation, the transfer of technical skills, and the broader growth of Afghanistan’s economy.

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Afghan economy posts second year of growth despite deep structural challenges

The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.

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Afghanistan’s economy is set to record a second consecutive year of growth, supported by low inflation and stronger domestic revenues, but deep structural challenges continue to weigh heavily on the country’s long-term outlook.

According to the World Bank’s latest Afghanistan Development Update, cited by Himalaya Diary, gross domestic product is projected to expand by 4.3 percent in 2025, following an estimated 2.5 percent growth in 2024.

The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.

Agriculture has shown relative resilience, with a record irrigated wheat harvest achieved despite severe drought conditions. Mining and construction have also contributed to overall output growth, helping sustain economic momentum.

However, the recovery has not translated into improved living standards. Rapid population growth, estimated at 8.6 percent in 2025, is expected to push GDP per capita down by around 4 percent. Inflation remains low at about 2 percent — among the lowest in the region — reflecting stable food prices and a stronger currency, but also highlighting Afghanistan’s reliance on imports and exposure to external shocks.

On the fiscal front, domestic revenues have improved, with tax collection projected to reach 17.1 percent of GDP in 2025 as enforcement measures tighten. At the same time, declining foreign grants are shrinking the overall fiscal space, increasing reliance on trade taxes and continued donor support.

The financial sector remains under strain. Banks face regulatory uncertainty, rising non-performing loans and weak credit growth, while liquidity pressures persist as more cash circulates outside the formal system. Limited access to banking services and the transition to Islamic finance have further constrained financial inclusion.

Labour market pressures are also mounting. Nearly one in four young Afghans is unemployed, and restrictions on women’s education and economic participation are undermining human capital and long-term growth prospects. These challenges are compounded by one of the largest return migration waves in recent years, with an estimated 4 to 4.7 million people returning between late 2023 and mid-2025, intensifying pressure on jobs and public services, particularly in urban and border areas.

The World Bank warns that sustaining the recovery will require reforms to attract private investment, strengthen the financial system and diversify exports. Improved governance, a more supportive business environment and stronger engagement with international partners will be critical if Afghanistan is to reduce its reliance on humanitarian aid and move toward more resilient and inclusive growth.

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