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Afghanistan’s Economy Projected to Remain at 2.5 Percent Growth in 2019: ADB

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(Last Updated On: April 11, 2018)

Afghanistan’s economy is projected to remain at 2.5 percent growth in 2018 and 2019 due to the challenging security and political situations in the country, a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report says.

In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018, ADB noted that preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Afghanistan in 2017 was 2.5%, up only slightly from 2.4% in 2016, as a tenuous political situation and worsening security limited economic growth.

“..The most important thing we do is that we are involved with the government here [in Afghanistan] at a policy dialogue; e. g. we have the transport sector, we have been investing a lot, we have about $2 billion of investments in roads in Afghanistan,” said Samuel Tumiwa, ADB Country Director for Afghanistan.

“We have to help the Public Works Ministry to maintain those roads, right now road maintenance needs to be improved in Afghanistan, so we are helping with policies and regulations at the ministry to improve road maintenance,” he said.   

According to the report, the domestic investment remained steady in 2017, equal to 18.5% of GDP. Private investment is estimated at only 8% of GDP in 2017, reflecting a lack of confidence in political and security conditions. Public investment increased by 8% in nominal terms over 2016 as the execution rate improved from 54% that year to 67% in 2017 with better budget planning, simplified execution rules, and more authority delegated to line ministries.

Security and the political situation remain concerns in Afghanistan’s economic outlook. Security is unstable, particularly in Kabul, and the country is likely to experience greater political uncertainty due to friction within the National Unity Government. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2018 and a presidential election in 2019, which could cause businesses to adopt a wait-and-see approach. 

The ADB report noted that the government has attracted very little private investment, estimated to equal 8.0% of GDP, well below the average of 20.8% in the region.  “This shortcoming is a major constraint on economic growth, job creation, and reduced dependence on donor aid from abroad,” it said.

The report suggested that the government should maintain its efforts toward regional cooperation.

According to ADB, connectivity and open trade with neighbors can attract more private investment as regional markets become more open.

“On top of the commercial benefits of regional cooperation, a peace dividend would give neighboring countries a greater stake in peace and stability in Afghanistan through economic links and opportunities,” it said.

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Pakistan’s customs agent says exports to Afghanistan dwindle

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(Last Updated On: September 24, 2021)

Hundreds of trucks lined the winding, mountainous road leading to Torkhum, the Pakistan-Afghan border crossing on Thursday.

Pakistani officials say that is because exports to Afghanistan have dwindled in the days after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) take over.

But some truck drivers were upbeat because they said the vegetable and fruit season in Afghanistan had helped increase exports of these items from the war-ravaged country.

Another Pakistani official at another Pakistan-Afghan border Chaman said trade had picked up because the IEA government had reduced taxes, and also put an end to bribes that traders and truck drivers had to pay to cross the border.

Afghan new government bolstered its economic team last week, naming a commerce minister and two deputies as the group tries to revive a financial system in shock from the abrupt end to billions of dollars in foreign aid.

Underlining the economic pressures building on Afghanistan’s new government, prices for staples like flour, fuel, and rice have risen and long queues are still forming outside banks as they strictly ration withdrawals.

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Motorists concerned about rising fuel prices in Afghanistan

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(Last Updated On: September 20, 2021)

Afghans have raised concerns over the increase in fuel prices on the local market, despite the resumption of fuel imports from neighboring countries.

Officials from Balkh’s Chamber of Commerce and Investment said last week that imports of fuel and gas through Hairatan and Aqina ports have resumed.

Motorists have however called on the Islamic Emirate to monitor and control market prices.

According to them, petrol currently costs 65 AFN per liter; diesel is 56 AFN; and gas costs between 72 and 80 AFN per kilogram in Kabul.

The Council of Fuel Merchants, however, says that limited access to cash and banking transactions, along with a monopoly of the industry by a few companies, are the key reasons for rising fuel prices.

Mohammad Asif, a member of the organization, stated: “If the Islamic Emirate wants to control the issue, they should control it at the [border] customs. Although [import] tariffs have been cut by 50%, prices are still high due to a monopoly of imports by some companies. They (merchants) set prices as they wish.”

Khan Jan Alokozay, Deputy Head of the Chamber of Commerce and Investment, stated: “The problem is that wholesalers have not set the market price, and when retailers distribute the goods to other areas that causes an increase in rates.”

People also called on property owners to reduce rental rates of houses in Kabul city, amid a looming economic crisis in Afghanistan.

Landlords, however, stated that the average rental has dropped by 50% compared to last year.

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Private sector calls for implementation of economic projects

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(Last Updated On: September 17, 2021)

Afghanistan’s private sector on Thursday called on the new government to implement large, regional projects saying this will create job opportunities, which will in turn reduce poverty and increase government revenue.

“There are many opportunities in the country. TAPI, CASA-1000, Railways, Belt and Road, [these] projects should be implemented; it is very important for the country. It is beneficial for Afghanistan. Taliban (Islamic Emirate) should take it seriously,” said Khan Jan Alokozay, a member of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment.

Some members of the country’s craftsmen association said the Islamic Emirate should start with projects that connect Central Asia to South Asia, in order to push Afghanistan’s economy.

“Our country has the capacity to implement large projects between Central Asia and South Asia. We call on Taliban (Islamic Emirate) to address the projects, said Abdul Jabar Safi, head of the association.

The Islamic Emirate meanwhile has stated that they are focusing on projects and that work on these will start soon.

Economic analysts, on the other hand, have stated that work on such projects should be accelerated.

“Attention should be paid to these projects, in order to move to a stable economy. Afghanistan needs such projects now,” said Abdul Wasi, an economic analyst.

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