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Afghanistan’s economic collapse could prompt refugee crisis: IMF

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Afghanistan's economy is set to contract up to 30% this year and this is likely to further fuel a refugee crisis that will impact neighbouring countries, Turkey and Europe, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

With non-humanitarian aid halted and foreign assets largely frozen after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) seized power in August, Afghanistan’s aid-reliant economy "faces severe fiscal and balance-of-payments crises", it said in its regional economic outlook update.

"The resulting drop in living standards threatens to push millions into poverty and could lead to a humanitarian crisis."

The IMF said the turmoil in Afghanistan was expected to generate important economic and security spillovers to the region and beyond and was "fueling a surge in Afghan refugees", although it gave no estimates of potential numbers.

"A large influx of refugees could put a burden on public resources in refugee-hosting countries, fuel labor market pressures, and lead to social tensions, underscoring the need for assistance from the international community," it said.

Assuming a million more Afghans flee their homeland and settle in other countries in a way that is proportional to the existing spread of Afghan refugees, the annual cost of hosting them would amount to $100 million in Tajikistan (1.3% of gross domestic product), about $300 million in Iran (0.03% of GDP) and more than $500 million in Pakistan (0.2% of GDP), the IMF said.

Tajikistan said last month it could not afford to take in large numbers of refugees unless it received international financial assistance.

Other Central Asian nations have also said they have no plans to host refugees.

Another channel through which Afghanistan's economic troubles could affect its neighbours is trade.

"Exports to Afghanistan are macroeconomically and socially relevant for Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan," the Fund said.

Afghanistan previously served as a source of cash dollars, through both legitimate and possibly illicit cross-border flows, due to its status as a beneficiary of large donor funds, but now even larger amounts of dollar banknotes could start flowing into the country due to its shortages, the IMF said.

The goods they are exchanged for are likely to raise new concerns over money laundering and the financing of terrorism, it added.

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Mullah Baradar inaugurates a blanket factory in Kabul

About 930 million Afghanis have been invested in the factory and it currently has the capacity to produce 1000 blankets per day.

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Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the economic deputy prime minister, on Sunday inaugurated a blanket factory in Pul-e-Charkhi industrial area in Kabul city.

Speaking at the inauguration ceremony, Baradar said that with the provision of overall security in the country and the reduction of corruption, a favorable environment for medium and small investments has been created.

He added that the Islamic Emirate continues to support domestic industries by implementing effective import substitution policies, which plays an important role in strengthening the country's national economy.

Baradar stated that in order to support domestic industries, heavy-duty machines worth 100 million afghanis ($1.4 million) were purchased for the newly established blanket factory based on the Islamic Murabaha Islamic financing structure.

Murabaha is a sales contract where the buyer and seller agree on the markup or "cost-plus" price for the item being sold.

Baradar also mentioned that the Islamic Emirate seeks to reduce dependence on foreign imports by increasing the level of investment.

He called businessmen and investors to invest inside Afghanistan for the economic growth of the country.

According to Baradar’s office, the newly established blanket factory uses domestically sourced raw materials including wool and cotton, which will help increase job opportunities in addition to strengthening the livestock and agriculture sector.

About 930 million afghanis has been invested in the factory and it currently has the capacity to produce 1,000 blankets per day.

The factory has employed about 900 people.

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Trade volume between Kabul-Tehran has reached over $1.8 billion: MoIC

Afghanistan News: Iranian officials also stated that since the beginning of this year, the export of non-oil goods to Afghanistan has increased to $1.3 billion

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Ministry of Industry and Commerce (MoIC) says the trade volume between Afghanistan and Iran has reached more than $1.8 billion over the past seven months of 1403 [solar year].

The ministry's spokesman Abdulsalam Jawad Akhundzada said these trades include oil and non-oil goods.

According to Jawad Akhundzada, trade and transit with Iran is expanding.

“Afghanistan's trade with Iran during the seven months of 1403 was worth $1 billion 827 million dollars, of which 30 million dollars were exports and $1 billion 797 million dollars were imports,” said Akhundzada.

“Most of the major export goods are mineral stones, raisins, all kinds of soft drinks and sesame seeds, and the main import items are diesel fuel, petrol, raw materials for manufacturing, liquid gas and cement,” he added.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials also stated that since the beginning of this year, the export of non-oil goods to Afghanistan has increased to 1.3 billion dollars.

Tehran Times newspaper quoted the Iranian customs officials and reported that Afghanistan was Iran's fifth largest importer of non-oil products in the last seven months.

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Afghanistan-India trade volume totals $650 million so far this year

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Trade between Afghanistan and India totals $650 million in the first 10 months of this year, the Islamic Emirate’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce announced this weekend.

In a post on X on Saturday, the ministry’s spokesman Abdulsalam Jawad Akhundzada said $477 million in exports and $203 million in imports were recorded this year.

He said Afghanistan’s main exports to India included dried figs, raisins, saffron, green cumin, and almonds.

According to Akhundzada, the main items imported from India over the past 10 months were sugar, raw materials for industrial factories, new clothing, and roasted chickpeas.

Just last week, JP Singh, Indian foreign ministry’s joint secretary for the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran division, visited Kabul and met with Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

The two sides discussed political and economic relations between Afghanistan and India, and people's movements, the Afghan foreign ministry said in a statement.

Muttaqi expressed hope that relations between India and Afghanistan would expand in various fields. He stressed that to develop trade relations, Indian visa facilities should be increased for Afghan citizens, especially businesspersons.

According to the statement, JP Singh said that relations with Afghanistan are important for India and have an ancient history.

The Indian diplomat said that along with humanitarian aid to Afghans, India has also started development assistance to Afghanistan and is engaged in technical discussions with relevant Afghan institutions.

JP Singh stressed that in the near future, negotiations will be held between technical delegations of regional countries including Afghanistan and India on the Chabahar port.

He also promised to increase Indian visa facilities for Afghans.

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