Business
Afghanistan’s economic collapse could prompt refugee crisis: IMF
Afghanistan's economy is set to contract up to 30% this year and this is likely to further fuel a refugee crisis that will impact neighbouring countries, Turkey and Europe, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
With non-humanitarian aid halted and foreign assets largely frozen after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) seized power in August, Afghanistan’s aid-reliant economy "faces severe fiscal and balance-of-payments crises", it said in its regional economic outlook update.
"The resulting drop in living standards threatens to push millions into poverty and could lead to a humanitarian crisis."
The IMF said the turmoil in Afghanistan was expected to generate important economic and security spillovers to the region and beyond and was "fueling a surge in Afghan refugees", although it gave no estimates of potential numbers.
"A large influx of refugees could put a burden on public resources in refugee-hosting countries, fuel labor market pressures, and lead to social tensions, underscoring the need for assistance from the international community," it said.
Assuming a million more Afghans flee their homeland and settle in other countries in a way that is proportional to the existing spread of Afghan refugees, the annual cost of hosting them would amount to $100 million in Tajikistan (1.3% of gross domestic product), about $300 million in Iran (0.03% of GDP) and more than $500 million in Pakistan (0.2% of GDP), the IMF said.
Tajikistan said last month it could not afford to take in large numbers of refugees unless it received international financial assistance.
Other Central Asian nations have also said they have no plans to host refugees.
Another channel through which Afghanistan's economic troubles could affect its neighbours is trade.
"Exports to Afghanistan are macroeconomically and socially relevant for Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan," the Fund said.
Afghanistan previously served as a source of cash dollars, through both legitimate and possibly illicit cross-border flows, due to its status as a beneficiary of large donor funds, but now even larger amounts of dollar banknotes could start flowing into the country due to its shortages, the IMF said.
The goods they are exchanged for are likely to raise new concerns over money laundering and the financing of terrorism, it added.
Pakistan’s Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI) has said that daily truck clearances at Torkham crossing have declined from 400-500 to 5-10.
SCCI President Fazal Muqeem Khan said this at the signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry to promote bilateral trade and cooperation.
He said the volume of trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan had fallen from $3 billion to $1 billion annually.
Fazal Muqeem also highlighted the adverse impact of the 2% Infrastructure Development Cess (IDC) imposed by the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government on trade and transit.
Business
Turkish scholars, charity officials assess investment prospects in Afghanistan
Officials pledged to encourage Turkish investors to explore and capitalize on investment opportunities in Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s Acting Minister of Energy and Water, Mullah Abdul Latif Mansoor, met with a delegation of Turkish scholars and officials from the Adif Charity Foundation on Tuesday to discuss various political, religious, and social issues.
According to the Ministry of Energy and Water, Mullah Mansoor praised Adif’s humanitarian efforts in Afghanistan and highlighted the country’s ample resources for energy production.
He emphasized that Afghanistan currently offers a favorable environment for investment in all sectors, assuring the Turkish delegation of the Islamic Emirate’s commitment to ensuring the safety and security of investors and their assets.
In response, Adif officials pledged to encourage Turkish investors to explore and capitalize on investment opportunities in Afghanistan, signaling a potential boost in economic and developmental cooperation between the two nations.
Business
Uzbek envoy to Pakistan discusses Trans-Afghan Railway project with Pakistani minister
The Trans-Afghan Railway project is expected to serve as a powerful stimulus for trade and economic integration among numerous countries in the region
Regional connectivity projects including the Termez-Kabul railway line, the Trans-Afghan Railway, and the multimodal Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan transport corridor, are key to the region’s success, the Ambassador of Uzbekistan to Pakistan Alisher Tukhtayev said during a meeting with Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif on Friday.
The two officials discussed a range of issues as well as coordinating efforts to ensure stability and deepen economic integration in the region.
Asif however pointed out that Tashkent has become an important hub for regional cooperation, Pakistani media reported Monday.
Special focus was given to the implementation of the Trans-Afghan Railway project, which is expected to serve as a powerful stimulus for trade-economic integration to numerous countries.
The ambassador said the governments of Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are actively cooperating in the implementation of joint economic and infrastructure projects and one of them is the construction of the Trans-Afghan Railway.
He said the “Termez-Kabul-Peshawar” railway project plays an important role in restoring ties of regional connectivity between Central and South Asia.
He added that once the project is launched, the volume of trade will increase significantly and shipping costs will decrease.
Tukhtayev said the railway connectivity will contribute hugely to regional stability and overall prosperity by aiding Afghanistan’s economic recovery.
He also said the project will facilitate the delivery of Uzbek goods to world markets through Pakistani ports and will open up a new route for Pakistan to export its products to Central Asian, and European markets.
According to him, the Trans-Afghan railway will be able to carry up to 20 million tons of cargo per year, and transportation costs will decrease by 30-35% and timing of deliveries will be cut from two weeks to three to four days.
He also stated that the international cooperation project on the development of the multimodal transport corridor Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan–Pakistan is being actively promoted.
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