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Afghanistan’s contracted economy faces uncertainty: World Bank

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The Afghan economy is expected to hover around no-growth territory this year, amid uncertainty after contracting by 25% since August 2021, while Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) restrictive policies on women’s education and work will further lower the country’s growth prospects, says the World Bank in a report released Tuesday.

The report titled Uncertainty After Fleeting Stability, shows how Afghanistan’s economic downturn has affected all sectors. Services, which make up 45% of the country’s GDP, shrank by 6.5% last year, following a staggering 30% drop in 2021. The agriculture sector, which accounts for 36% of GDP, declined by 6.6% in 2022 due to unfavorable weather conditions and farmers’ lack of resources to cope.

The industrial sector also saw a contraction of 5.7% last year, as businesses—especially those owned by women—faced closures due to limited access to resources and financial challenges. Following a record high in 2022, exports have been declining this year while imports remain robust, resulting in a growing trade deficit, the World Bank said.

Dampened demand, better supply conditions, and a stronger currency caused inflation to sharply decline from its 18.3% peak last July, leading to deflation since April 2023. Although deflation may initially increase real wages, prolonged deflation could stifle business growth and increase unemployment, the bank warned.

A potential reduction in international aid due to fiscal pressures in donor countries and the restrictive policies on women and girls pose risks to Afghanistan’s recovery, as do concerns about stability of the banking sector and dysfunctional payments system, the report said.

“Afghanistan’s economy is fragile, relies heavily on external support and its private sector is weak,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan. “To recover, the country needs to prioritize spending on human capital, basic services and climate resilience and address harmful gender policies.”

According to the World Bank’s latest Afghanistan Welfare Monitoring Survey, also released Tuesday,one in two Afghans remain poor and recent gains in welfare have come at the cost of possibly exhausting all coping strategies and household resources.

Since the economic crash of 2021, households report an improvement in their capacity to meet basic needs, but deprivation and vulnerability remain high. Afghan households have mobilized extra labor to make ends meet, mainly among youth and women. The overall increase in labor supply has outpaced demand, doubling unemployment.

While improved security has increased primary school attendance and narrowed gender and rural-urban gaps, millions of primary-school-age girls and boys remain out of school mainly due to a lack of access. Since the ban on female secondary school attendance was imposed, only 3% of girls attend secondary school. Among boys aged 13-18, only 44% are receiving a secondary education, World Bank said.

“Afghanistan’s future growth potential hinges on improving human capital. What is happening to secondary education is a cause of grave concern,” added Good. “Almost no girls and less than half of the country’s boys are getting a secondary education. Where will the teachers and doctors of tomorrow come from? A country cannot grow if it willingly foregoes the potential of its citizens.”

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Afghanistan exported more than 2,500 tons of pine nuts in 1402

Afghan pine nut is mostly exported to China, India, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

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The Ministry of Industry and Commerce says that in the past solar year (1402) more than 2,500 tons of pine nuts worth $27 million were exported to neighboring countries and beyond.

Afghan pine nut is mostly exported to China, India, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

“The total weight of black pine nut exports during 1402 was 2,523 tons and the value was $27 million, mostly to China, India, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United States, Britain, Australia, the Netherlands, and other countries,” said Abdul Salam Javad Akhundzada, the spokesman of the Ministry of Industry and Commerce.

Officials in the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock say that since last year, pine nut production has increased in the country and they have also expanded artificial forests to harvest more pine nuts.

“In order to revive pine nut forests, according to last year's development budget, pine trees have been planted on approximately 1,500 hectares of land.
There used to be pine trees on these lands, but they were cut down or destroyed in a fire,” said Misbahuddin Mustain, the spokesperson of the Ministries of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock.

Experts say that currently China buys most of Afghanistan's pint nuts, but the government must find new markets so that it can be sold at a better price.

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IEA says deportation of Afghan migrants from neighboring countries has intensified

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A committee of the High Commission for Addressing the Problems of Migrants said the process of forced expulsion of Afghan migrants from neighboring countries has intensified.

However, members of the committee emphasized, in their meeting with the Prime Minister's administrative deputy, that they have managed the resettlement of the returnees well in cooperation with relevant institutions.

In the meeting, Abdul Salam Hanafi, the administrative deputy prime minister, said that as winter approaches, committees should seek to ensure that the returnees will not face problems.

Experts say that the refugee hosting countries should treat Afghan migrants according to international laws, and take into account the current conditions of the country.

“To reduce immigration and increase economic stability, creating employment opportunities, increasing investment, giving various types of loans to people and issuing securities can be effective,” said Asifa Stanikzai, a migration expert.

Iranian officials have said that they deport 3,000 Afghan immigrants from the country every day and they plan to deport two million Afghan immigrants by the end of this year.

Forced deportation of Afghan migrants from Iran and Pakistan has been a serious challenge in the last three years, but according to experts, the Islamic Emirate has been able to manage the process to some extent.

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Iran executes 13 Afghans in October, 49 in total since January

Last month, Iran carried out at least 166 executions in October alone bringing the total in the first 10 months of 2024 to at least 651

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Iran Human Rights reported this weekend that in the first 10 months of 2024, Iran has executed 49 Afghan nationals, 13 of whom were executed in October alone. 

According to IHR, the number of executions of Afghan nationals has increased in the past three years. 

In 2022, 16 Afghan nationals, including a juvenile offender and a woman, were executed. 

In 2023, this number increased to 25. 

This year, the trend has accelerated further.

IHR warned that Iran may take advantage of the rising conflict between Iran and Israel to escalate the number of executions in the coming months.

Last month, Iran carried out at least 166 executions in October alone bringing the total in the first 10 months of 2024 to at least 651.

This marks the highest number of executions recorded in a single month since Iran Human Rights began documenting executions in 2007. 

Among those executed were the 13 Afghan nationals, six women, and an Iranian-German citizen.

The organization has called on the international community, media, and civil society to closely monitor and respond to what they say is an “alarming rise in executions”.

IHR also stated that since the presidential election and the recent escalation in Iran-Israel tensions, the number of executions has surged, with at least 353 people having been executed between August and October - since President Massoud Pezeshkian took office.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has not yet commented on the number of Afghan nationals executed.

The Iranian government does not disclose the number of Afghans it executes or the reasons behind most cases. 

However, it is widely believed that a significant portion of these executions are related to drug charges.

Human rights organizations have criticized the Iranian government for conducting such executions, arguing that these actions violate international laws and the right to life.

Amnesty International says that the death penalty, without exception, constitutes a violation of the right to life as articulated in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

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