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A new plan to ‘fix the war’ with a Bonn-style conference: AAN report

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US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has in the past week proposed the possibility of a Bonn-type conference that could cancel or sideline the intra-Afghan peace talks currently underway in Doha.

According to Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), “Bonn 2” appears to have been discussed in a number of capitals and with various Afghan leaders.

The proposal appears aimed at ensuring a US troop withdrawal that would not look like Washington is cutting and running, AAN stated adding that any new power-sharing agreement reached as a ‘quick fix’ to the conflict would be inherently risky.

This could include increased conflict and the breaking down and loss of whatever stability and systems Afghanistan now enjoys.

AAN’s Thomas Ruttig, who was at the first Bonn conference as part of the UN team, argues that the situation in Afghanistan in 2021 is anyway so very different from those in 2001 that calling for a Bonn 2 conference to resolve the conflict is disingenuous.

Ruttig states that according to sources, the US envoy told Afghan politicians that the peace talks in Doha will be sidelined and that a Bonn Conference-style meeting will be held at the international level to discuss the prospect of a participatory government that would include the Taliban.

“A grand international conference that will be similar to the Bonn Conference will be held, in which the Taliban and the republic side will participate at the leadership level. At the same time, the international community, including the United States and the regional countries, will reach a political agreement that will take its legitimacy from the international community.

“However, the national legitimacy (agreement of the potential conference) would take its authority from the traditional Loya Jirga,” said Shahzada Massoud, a close aide to former president Hamid Karzai, AAN reported.

AAN stated that Khalilzad had reportedly carried a special letter from the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR), calling on them “to speed up the peace process and build an internal consensus to negotiate with the Taliban on a new level,” and to prepare for a “Bonn model” conference with the Taliban, hosted by Turkey in Ankara “as soon as possible.”

According to the report, the new plan seems inspired by the desire to meet the short, albeit formally conditional, timeline that was established by the year-old US-Taliban agreement for the withdrawal of US and other troops by 1 May 2021.

Khalilzad’s hope, apparently, is that a Bonn-style conference could result in a quick power-sharing agreement (or, similarly to the approach to that before the February 2020 Doha deal with a Taliban, with a ‘framework’ agreement as a first step).

His proposal would appear to mean the end or sidelining of the intra-Afghan talks in Doha where the Taliban and Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRoA) have yet to agree on an agenda, AAN reported.

AAN stated that his proposal might be primarily aimed at providing cover for the US troop withdrawal by 1 May, or alternatively include conditions for a delayed final withdrawal. Such an agreement would also allow the new US government to sidestep the thorny issue of whether the Taliban have fulfilled their commitments to the bilateral February 2020 Doha deal, with regard to cutting ties with al-Qaeda.

AAN stated that at least ten political leaders have agreed to the plan: President Ashraf Ghani, along with his two deputies, Amrullah Saleh and Sarwar Danesh; Abdullah Abdullah; former president Hamid Karzai and factional leaders Muhammad Mohaqeq, Muhammad Karim Khalili, Abdul Rashid Dostum, Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf and Yunes Qanuni.

The plan reported includes a handover of power from the current government to a transitional one, after “agreement on basic issues” in Ankara and in the presence of US and NATO military forces “in order to maintain political stability.”

The transitional government, reported AAN, could include leaders from Afghanistan and the Taliban but it is not clear how a transitional administration would become a permanent government.

Before Khalilzad arrived in Kabul last week, he had a stopover in Berlin. AAN reported it is likely Khalilzad discussed this plan with Berlin before heading to Afghanistan.

According to AAN, a first indirect reaction from the Afghan government to the Bonn 2 proposal came late on 3 March, from National Security Adviser Hamdullah Moheb, who said the government was “holding discussions about a wide range of alternatives” with various factions to achieve peace in the country.

He said any option needed “guarantees'' from the international community and the Taliban. On 6 March, however, when opening the spring session of the Afghan parliament, Ghani indirectly rejected parts of the new US plan in a speech, particularly ideas of a non-elected government.

He reiterated that the transfer of power through elections was “a non-negotiable principle for us” and, tha the constitution would determine the country’s future, rather than other people’s plans.

He also said, however, that he was “ready to discuss the holding of a free, transparent, and countrywide election under the management of the international community” and that “[w]e can also talk about a date and reach a conclusion.”

Ghani did not refer to the idea of holding a new international conference.

AAN reported that it is interesting that Khalilzad chose to frame his plan as a ‘Bonn-style’ agreement, deliberately suggesting that it is possible to turn back history, press the restart button, deal the cards again – largely with the same factions, in some cases even the same individuals, but this time, with the Taliban at the table.

AAN stated that many authors and commentators, in hindsight, have described the fact that the Taliban were not included in Bonn 1 as one of its main mistakes.

In conclusion, AAN reported that the plan to hold a new “Bonn-style conference” prioritises US interests and timelines even more than the Doha agreement did.

Even if the Taliban agreed to a ‘Bonn 2 formula’, this would leave the causes of conflict unaddressed. It would hand the implementation of an agreement to parties who so far and to varying degrees have not been willing to seriously negotiate with each other or share power.

To only have armed factions at the negotiating table would again undercut the principle of broad participation, including of women’s organisations and other civil society groups, and would limit the chances of a peaceful future. It would repeat a major mistake of Bonn 1 where civilian political forces were not invited to the table, AAN reported.

However, if both sides could be brought to agree to a deal and even some form of truce, and troops withdrew, with the departing soldiers would go much of the remaining international attention on Afghanistan.

AAN reported that international powers would then have even less leverage on the Afghan parties, but might also have less interest, once their military engagement was over.

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IEA delegation attends conference for ‘Promoting Mining Cooperation’ in China

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The Ministry of Mines and Petroleum said on Saturday in a statement that its delegation participated in a conference titled "Promoting Mining Cooperation" in China’s Hunan province.

The Ministry stated the conference aims to build a well-equipped laboratory in Afghanistan, increase the capacity of technical and professional employees of the Ministry of Mines, and encourage investors in the mineral resources sector of Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Chinese investors expressed their interest in Afghanistan’s gold, copper, mica, talc, oil, gas, lithium, lead and zinc mines.

At the conference, the ministry’s deputy minister of finance and administration and head of the delegation Hussamuddin Saberi talked about Afghanistan's natural resources contracts and investment opportunities and considered holding such programs effective for the relations between the two countries.

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Uzbekistan, EU envoys meet to discuss Afghanistan

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Uzbekistan’s special representative for Afghanistan, Ismatulla Irgashev, on Friday met with the EU Special Representative for Central Asia Terhi Hakala.

During the meeting, the parties discussed the current state and prospects of Uzbek-European relations in the Afghan direction, the efforts of the international community to prevent a humanitarian crisis in the country and the possibility of using the international transport and logistics hub in Termez to deliver humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, Uzbekistan’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

Hakala highly appreciated the efforts of Uzbekistan to develop a consolidated regional position on Afghanistan, establish long-term peace and stability in the country, according to the statement.

The parties expressed mutual interest in continuing bilateral consultations on the Afghan issue, the statement added.

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UN expert calls for comprehensive, rights-focused action plan for Afghanistan

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A UN expert on Friday called on the international community to devise and implement a comprehensive, human rights-centered action plan to address the human rights crisis in Afghanistan.

“The absence of a unified, forceful response from the international community has emboldened the Taliban (IEA),” UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan, Richard Bennett, said.

In his latest report to the UN General Assembly, Bennett said that the human rights situation in Afghanistan is worsening, which includes systematic gender oppression, amounting to gender persecution and which many Afghans term “gender apartheid” with intergenerational implications.

Bennett expressed concern about the new “vice and virtue” law, announced in August, which he believes has institutionalized an expanding list of restrictions that “blatantly violate the rights of women and girls.”

He also expressed concern about the “shrinking civic space” in Afghanistan, the situation of minorities, journalists, and former government officials and security personnel.

“Justice, equality, and the rule of law are being systematically undermined,” he said.

The UN expert also called for increased funding and support for Afghan civil society and humanitarian efforts to mitigate the crisis.

Bennett urged the IEA to reverse its “repressive policies” and reinstate basic human rights. He pressed the international community to take a coordinated, multifaceted approach to support the Afghan people.

Bennett urged states not to normalize relations with the IEA until there are demonstrable human rights improvements and pathways to justice and accountability.

This comes as the Islamic Emirate has said that it is committed to ensuring human rights, including the rights of women and girls, according to Sharia, and this is an internal issue of Afghanistan.

The Islamic Emirate has banned Richard Bennett from traveling to Afghanistan, saying that he exaggerates small issues.

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