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Iran, Europeans meet to test diplomacy with Trump term looming

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European and Iranian diplomats meet on Friday to discuss whether they can engage in serious talks in the coming weeks to defuse tensions in the region, including over Tehran's disputed nuclear programme, before Donald Trump's return to the White House.

The meetings in the Swiss city of Geneva, where world powers and Iran achieved a first breakthrough in nuclear talks more than a decade ago before reaching a deal in 2015, are the first since the U.S. election, and aim to see whether any momentum can be built ahead of Jan. 20, when Trump is inaugurated, Reuters reported.

Iran's deputy foreign minister and senior nuclear negotiator Majid Takhteravanchi meets with top diplomats from Britain, Germany and France, known as the E3, on Friday, having met the EU's chief coordinator on Thursday evening.

The level of distrust between both sides was highlighted when the E3 countries on Nov. 21 pushed ahead with a resolution against Iran that tasked the U.N. atomic watchdog with preparing a "comprehensive" report on Iran's nuclear activities by the spring of 2025 despite last ditch, but limited Iranian pledges to curb uranium enrichment.

That makes the Geneva meetings more of a brainstorming session focused on their mutual concerns over how Trump will handle the dossier, diplomats said.

European, Israeli and regional diplomats say his planned administration, which includes notable Iran hawks such his Secretary of State pick Marco Rubio, will push a "maximum pressure" policy that would aim to bring Iran to its knees economically just like he attempted during his first presidency.

They also say he may seek a sort of grand bargain involving regional players to resolve the multitude of crises in the region.

The E3, the European parties to the 2015 deal, have adopted a tougher stance on Iran in recent months, notably since Tehran ramped up its military support to Russia for its war in Ukraine. However, they have always insisted that they wanted to maintain a policy of pressure and dialogue.

Three Iranian officials said Tehran’s primary objective will be finding ways to secure "lifting of sanctions” imposed since 2018, after then-President Trump reneged on the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers.

"The establishment has decided to overcome the nuclear impasse... the goal is to use the Geneva meeting to find common ground and if we progress, Washington could join at a later stage," said one of the three officials.

GOOD FAITH

Since 2018, Iran has accelerated its nuclear programme while limiting the International Atomic Energy Agency's ability to monitor it.

"There isn't going to be an agreement until Trump takes office or any serious talks about the contours of a deal," said Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association advocacy group.

"But the Europeans should press Iran about what aspects of its nuclear programme it's willing to negotiate on and what security conditions in the region will need to shift for Iran to make nuclear concessions."

A European official said the primary aim was to try to agree a calendar timeline and framework to embark on good faith talks so that there is a clear commitment from Iranians to begin negotiating something concrete before Trump arrives.

Officials from both sides say the nuclear issue is just one aspect of the talks that will also address Tehran's military relationship with Russia and its regional role as fears mount that tensions between Iran and arch-rival Israel could ignite an all-out war, already volatile due to conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and tit-for-tat strikes between the two rivals.

On announcing a ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the decision was made in part to turn Israel's focus to Iran.

While Trump's return to power leaves many questions open, four European diplomats said the E3 countries felt it was vital to engage now because time was running out.

Western powers hope Iran will decide to begin negotiating on new restrictions on its nuclear activities, albeit less far-reaching ones than those from 2015 with a view to having a deal by the summer.

In return sanctions would begin to be lifted, although the most damaging sanctions to Iran's economy come from Washington.

With Iran having taken its uranium enrichment far beyond the deal's limits, it is unclear whether Trump would back negotiations aimed at setting new limits before those in the 2015 deal are lifted on "termination day" in October of next year.

If no new limits are agreed before then, the report could be used to strengthen the case for so-called "snapback", a process under the 2015 deal where the issue is sent to the U.N. Security Council and sanctions lifted under the deal can be reimposed.

Iran, which has long said its nuclear programme is peaceful, has warned that it would review its nuclear doctrine if that happened.

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Bodies of four migrants recovered after boat sinks between Turkey and Greece

The coast guard rescued 16 survivors from the boat which sank after crashing into rocks

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A boat carrying an unknown number of migrants from Turkey to Greece sank on Thursday morning off Samos in the Aegean Sea, leaving four passengers dead. 

According to reports, two children and two women died in the incident. 

The coast guard rescued 16 survivors from the boat which sank after crashing into rocks. Police did not however disclose the nationalities of the migrants involved.

This was the second deadly shipwreck to take place off the eastern Aegean island this week, after another boat sank in the area on Monday, causing the death of another six children and two women.  

In Monday’s incident, 39 people survived, though it was also unclear how many passengers were on the boat when it set sail from Turkey.

Police have not yet disclosed the nationalities of the casualties. 

Greece has seen a 25 percent increase this year in the number of migrants arriving, with a 30 percent increase alone to Rhodes and the southeast Aegean, according to the migration ministry.

Several similar incidents have occurred in past weeks, the last in early November when four people died near the island of Rhodes.

In late October, two people died near the island of Samos. Four more, including two infants, were lost near the island of Kos a few days earlier, Greece’s media reported. 

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Israel, Hezbollah agree to ceasefire brokered by US and France, to take effect Wednesday

Netanyahu said he was ready to implement a ceasefire deal and would respond forcefully to any violation by Hezbollah.

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A ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah will take effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the United States and France, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday.

The accord cleared the way for an end to a conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year.

Biden, who made remarks at the White House shortly after Israel's security cabinet approved the agreement in a 10-1 vote, said he had spoken to Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Fighting would end at 4 a.m. local time (0200 GMT), he said.

"This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities," Biden said. "What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.”

Israel will gradually withdraw its forces over 60 days as Lebanon's army takes control of territory near its border with Israel to ensure that Hezbollah does not rebuild its infrastructure there, Biden said.

"Civilians on both sides will soon be able to safely return to their communities," he said.

French President Emmanuel Macron cheered the signing of the deal on social-media platform X, saying it was “the culmination of efforts undertaken for many months with the Israeli and Lebanese authorities, in close collaboration with the United States.”

Lebanon's Mikati issued a statement welcoming the deal. Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib earlier said the Lebanese army would be ready to have at least 5,000 troops deployed in southern Lebanon as Israeli troops withdraw.

Netanyahu said he was ready to implement a ceasefire deal and would respond forcefully to any violation by Hezbollah.

Netanyahu, who faces some opposition to the deal from within his coalition government, said the ceasefire would allow Israel to focus on the threat from Iran, replenish depleted arms supplies and give the army a rest, and to isolate Hamas, the militant group that triggered war in the region when it attacked Israel from Gaza last year.

"We will enforce the agreement and respond forcefully to any violation. Together, we will continue until victory," Netanyahu said.

"In full coordination with the United States, we retain complete military freedom of action. Should Hezbollah violate the agreement or attempt to rearm, we will strike decisively."

Netanyahu said Hezbollah, which is allied to Palestinian militant group Hamas, was considerably weaker than it had been at the start of the conflict.

"We have set it back decades, eliminated ... its top leaders, destroyed most of its rockets and missiles, neutralized thousands of fighters, and obliterated years of terror infrastructure near our border," he said.

The United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, welcomed the ceasefire deal in a statement, commending the parties to the agreement.

"Now is the time to deliver, through concrete actions, to consolidate today’s achievement."

A senior U.S. official, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. and France would join a mechanism with the UNIFIL peacekeeping force that would work with Lebanon's army to deter potential violations of the ceasefire. U.S. combat forces would not be deployed, the official said.

The Lebanon ceasefire came after a change of attitudes on both sides in late October, the official said.

Biden, who leaves office in January, said his administration would continue to push for an elusive ceasefire and hostage-release deal in Gaza, where Israel is battling Hamas, as well as for a deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, hostilities raged as Israel dramatically ramped up its campaign of airstrikes in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon, with health authorities reporting at least 18 killed.

The Israeli military said it struck "components of Hezbollah’s financial management and systems" including a money-exchange office.

Israel issued more evacuation warnings late on Tuesday, just hours before the ceasefire was due to take effect.

Hezbollah also kept up rocket fire into Israel.

Israel's air force intercepted three launches from Lebanese territory, the military said, in an extensive missile barrage on Tuesday night that led to warning alarms in approximately 115 settlements.

Alia Ibrahim, a mother of twin girls from the southern village of Qaaqaiyat al-Snawbar, who had fled nearly three months ago to Beirut, said she hoped Israeli officials, who have expressed contradictory views on a ceasefire, would be faithful to the deal.

“Our village – they destroyed half of it. In these few seconds before they announced the ceasefire, they destroyed half our village,” she said. “God willing, we can go back to our homes and our land."

A poll conducted by Israel's Channel 12 TV found that 37% of Israelis were in favor of the ceasefire, compared with 32% against.

Opponents to the deal in Israel include opposition leaders and heads of towns near Israel's border with Lebanon, who want a depopulated buffer zone on Lebanon's side of the frontier.

Both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah have insisted that a return of displaced civilians to southern Lebanon is a key tenet of the truce.

Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a right-wing member of Netanyahu's government, said on X the agreement does not ensure the return of Israelis to their homes in the country's north and that the Lebanese army did not have the ability to overcome Hezbollah.

"In order to leave Lebanon, we must have our own security belt," Ben-Gvir said.

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Lebanese sources: Biden, Macron set to announce Israel-Hezbollah truce

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said gaps between the two parties have narrowed significantly but there are still steps they need to take to reach an agreement.

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U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce a ceasefire in Lebanon between armed group Hezbollah and Israel imminently, four senior Lebanese sources said on Monday.

In Washington, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said, "We're close" but "nothing is done until everything is done".

The French presidency said discussions on a ceasefire had made significant progress. In Jerusalem, a senior Israeli official said Israel's cabinet would meet on Tuesday to approve a truce deal with Hezbollah.

Signs of a diplomatic breakthrough were accompanied by heavy Israeli airstrikes on Beirut's Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, as Israel pressed on with the offensive it launched in September after almost a year of cross-border hostilities.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declined to comment on reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the text of a deal. But the senior Israeli official told Reuters that Tuesday's cabinet meeting was intended to approve the text.

Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said Israel would maintain an ability to strike southern Lebanon under any agreement. Lebanon has previously objected to wording that would grant Israel such a right.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said gaps between the two parties have narrowed significantly but there are still steps they need to take to reach an agreement.

"Oftentimes the very last stages of an agreement are the most difficult because the hardest issues are left to the end," he said. "We are pushing as hard as we can."

Diplomacy is aimed at getting Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel to end fighting that erupted in October 2023 in parallel with Israel's war against Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in Gaza. The conflict in Lebanon has drastically escalated over the last two months.

In Beirut, Elias Bou Saab, Lebanon's deputy parliament speaker, told Reuters there were "no serious obstacles" left to start implementing a U.S.-proposed ceasefire with Israel, "unless Netanyahu changes his mind".

He said the proposal would entail an Israeli military withdrawal from south Lebanon and regular Lebanese army troops deploying in the border region, long a Hezbollah stronghold, within 60 days.

A sticking point over who would monitor compliance with the ceasefire was resolved in the last 24 hours with an agreement to set up a five-country committee, including France and chaired by the United States, he said.

Despite diplomatic progress, hostilities have intensified. Over the weekend, Israel carried out powerful airstrikes, one of which killed at least 29 people in central Beirut, while Hezbollah unleashed one of its biggest rocket salvoes yet on Sunday, firing 250 missiles into Israel.

In Beirut, Israeli airstrikes levelled more of the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs on Monday, sending clouds of debris billowing over the Lebanese capital.

Lebanon's health ministry said Israeli attacks killed 31 people and wounded 62 across the country on Monday. Over the past year, more than 3,750 people have been killed and over one million have been forced from their homes, according to the ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures.

Israel has dealt major blows to Hezbollah, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders, and inflicting massive destruction in Lebanon areas where the group holds sway.

Israel says its military offensive is aimed at enabling tens of thousands of Israelis to return to homes they evacuated when Hezbollah began firing across the Lebanese border into Israel more than a year ago. Hezbollah's campaign followed the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel that precipitated the Gaza war.

Hezbollah strikes have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. At least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in northern Israel, the Golan Heights and in combat in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli authorities.

Biden's administration, which leaves office in January, has emphasised diplomacy to end the Lebanon conflict, even as all negotiations to halt the parallel war in Gaza are frozen.

U.S. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk will be in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss using a potential Lebanon ceasefire as a catalyst for a deal ending hostilities in Gaza, the White House said.

Diplomacy over Lebanon has focused on restoring a ceasefire based on U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the last major war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.

It requires Hezbollah to pull its fighters back around 30 km (20 miles) from the Israeli border, behind the Litani River, and the regular Lebanese army to enter the frontier region.

Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of failing to implement it in the past; Israel says a new ceasefire must allow it to strike any Hezbollah fighters or weapons that remain south of the river.

An agreement could reveal rifts in Netanyahu's right-leaning government. The far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, said Israel must press on with the war until "absolute victory". Addressing Netanyahu on X, he said, "It is not too late to stop this agreement!"

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