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Al-Qaeda could rebuild in Afghanistan in a year or two: US officials
Al-Qaeda could rebuild inside Afghanistan in one to two years, top US intelligence officials said Tuesday, noting that some members of the group had already returned to the country, New York Times reported.
Earlier in the year, top Pentagon officials said al-Qaeda could reconstitute in two years, then told lawmakers after the fall of the previous Afghan government they were revising that timeline, the Times reported.
While the Islamic Emirate has long fought the Islamic State affiliate (ISIS-K), they are established allies of al-Qaeda, the Times reported.
“The current assessment probably conservatively is one to two years for al-Qaeda to build some capability to at least threaten the homeland,” Lt. General Scott Berrier, the director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency said Tuesday at the annual Intelligence and National Security Summit.
David Cohen, the deputy director of the CIA, said the difficult part of the timeline question was to know when al-Qaeda or ISIS-K would “have the capability to go to strike the homeland” before they could be detected, the Times reported.
According to Cohen, the CIA is keeping a keen watch of “some potential movement of al-Qaeda to Afghanistan”.
He did not identify specific al-Qaeda members who have traveled back to Afghanistan since the fall of the American-backed government, but Osama bin Laden’s former security chief, Amin al Haq, who served with bin Laden during the battle of Tora Bora, was seen on video returning to the Afghan province of Nangarhar last month, the Times reported.
Meanwhile, experts have said the Islamic Emirate needs to curb activities by ISIS-K (Daesh) and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in order to gain the trust and confidence of the international community.
Mohammad Sarwar Niazi, an Afghan military expert, said: “The US is familiar with ISIS (Daesh) and from where it comes… how can two religious groups (Daesh and Al-Qaeda) be eliminated? If they (US) wanted to eliminate Daesh they could have done it during their 20 years of presence [in Afghanistan].”
The possibility of a re-emergence of Daesh and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan is considered worrying by many analysts, and some have called on the Islamic Emirate to prevent these groups from operating in the country.
“Al-Qaeda and Daesh were created by the United States, and now that the Taliban (Islamic Emirate) have taken over Afghanistan, they are responsible for protecting Afghanistan.
“Unfortunately, the war in Afghanistan was an intelligence war, and now the United States is worried and measures must be taken,” said Aziz Meraj, a political analyst.
Roza Otunbayeva, Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), recently visited the city of Maimana in northern Afghanistan, where she met with local officials, entrepreneurs, and UN staff.
UNAMA wrote on its Facebook page on Sunday, that during the visit, entrepreneurs — including women — met with Otunbayeva, and requested support to facilitate access to new markets, particularly in Uzbekistan.
UNAMA further stated that among these entrepreneurs was a group of women who, with the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), had established a tailoring workshop.
They expressed their appreciation for the support received and spoke about the significant growth and development of their business.
UNAMA added that the organization remains committed to promoting economic opportunities and empowering Afghan communities, especially women.
Anand Prakash, head of the Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan Division of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, met with Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Kabul for talks on various issues.
According to a press release issued Sunday by the Afghan Foreign Ministry, bilateral political relations, trade, transit and recent political developments in the region were discussed in the meeting.
Muttaqi stressed the need for the expansion of diplomatic and economic relations between the two countries and explained that Afghanistan currently offers favorable opportunities for investment. He said Indian investors should take advantage of these opportunities.
He also said that facilities should be created for the movement of people between Afghanistan and India and the issuance of visas for medical purposes, students and businessmen should return to normal.
Meanwhile, Prakash said that relations with Afghanistan are important for India and he hopes that these relations will expand further in various fields.
He stressed that India will continue its cooperation with Afghanistan and wants to invest in some infrastructure projects and restart projects that were paused for some time.
The two sides also emphasized the expansion of relations, the exchange of delegations, visa facilitation and bilateral cooperation.
Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi has said in a phone call with his Uzbek counterpart that Afghanistan is fully prepared for the implementation of the Trans-Afghan railway project.
During the call, the two sides discussed strengthening bilateral and multilateral relations, as well as expanding political, economic and transit cooperation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kabul said in a statement on Sunday.
Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov noted that Afghanistan’s exports to Uzbekistan have tripled in the first four months of 2025 compared to last year. He vowed to create more facilities in the field of trade and transit between the two countries, especially in issuing visas to Afghan citizens.
Meanwhile, Amir Khan Muttaqi said that Afghanistan is fully prepared for the implementation of major economic projects such as the Trans-Afghan railway project and for the strengthening of political, trade and transit cooperation with Uzbekistan. He said that the existing opportunities should be utilized for the mutual benefit of the two countries.
The two sides also discussed the holding of a trilateral meeting between Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan at the level of foreign ministers and agreed to coordinate through diplomatic channels to determine the exact date and place of the meeting.
The three neighboring countries signed an agreement in February 2021 to construct a 573-kilometer railway line through Afghanistan, connecting landlocked Central Asia to Pakistan seaports, with an estimated cost of $4.8 billion to enhance regional economic connectivity.
Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar held a telephone conversation with Uzbek foreign minister last Thursday to discuss the Trans-Afghan railway project.
Dar expressed hope that the three countries would soon sign a framework agreement on this important regional project.
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