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World Bank predicts Afghan economic growth 3.3% this year

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Afghanistan’s economy grew by an estimated 2.9 percent in 2019, driven mainly by strong agricultural growth following recovery from drought, but lingering political uncertainty dampens private confidence and investment, says the World Bank.

Released today, “Navigating a Sea of Uncertainty”, the latest edition of the twice-a-year Afghanistan Development Update examines recent key economic developments and focuses on the impacts of current uncertainties around the outcome of the September 2019 presidential election, levels of future international civilian and security support, and the prospect of a peace agreement with the Taliban. The Update also includes a special topic reflecting on achievement of development outcomes since 2001.

“Growth picked up in Afghanistan in 2019. This is good news, but insecurity and political uncertainty are holding back the Afghan economy,” said World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan Henry Kerali. “Afghanistan needs to ramp up the pace of reforms to generate faster growth necessary to improve the living standards of its people and reduce poverty.”

The report notes that as drought impacts further recede and private sector confidence improves following the conclusion of the presidential election, growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3 percent in 2020. Over the medium-term, growth is projected to hover around 4 percent provided that the security situation does not further deteriorate and that international aid support continues. Growth prospects are subject to other significant downside risks, including further political instability, unexpected cuts in foreign aid, and adverse regional developments.

Domestic revenue collection reached a new high of 14.5 percent of GDP in 2019, up from 13.3 percent in 2018. Strong revenue performance reflected both progress in establishing a robust tax system and substantial one-off revenues, including transfers from the Da Afghanistan Bank.

The potential for much-faster growth exists but remains dependent on continued support from the international community and the Afghan government’s commitment to pushing business environment and anti-corruption reforms, the report says.

“The international community needs to maintain its support to Afghanistan over the medium-term to sustain the country’s recent development progress and help realize its long-term growth and self-reliance prospects. In this effort, the Afghan government needs to assure its international partners that progress is being made on governance and that aid resources are used efficiently,” said Kerali.

To improve confidence in the short-term, the Development Update notes the need for Government to accelerate improvements in the business environment and anti-corruption reforms.

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Islamic Emirate faces a wave of negative propaganda: Supreme leader

In his speech, Akhundzada emphasized on avoiding division and disunity, stating that the survival of the system lies in unity and solidarity.

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Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, supreme leader of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), led Eid-ul-Fitr prayer in Kandahar province on Sunday, attended by thousands of people.

In his speech, Akhundzada emphasized on avoiding division and disunity, stating that the survival of the system lies in unity and solidarity.

He added that the Islamic Emirate is facing a wave of negative propaganda, and its enemies are using these tactics to incite war and conflict in the country once again.

He warned that division would lead to the failure of Muslims and the collapse of systems.

The leader of the Islamic Emirate further mentioned that they sacrificed their lives for 20 years to achieve victory in jihad, and protecting this system requires even more sacrifices.

He called on the people, the forces of the Islamic Emirate, and officials to obey the leadership’s orders, emphasizing that the absence of leadership in the past led to civil wars, which must not be repeated.

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Pakistan finalizes plans to detain and deport Afghans as deadline nears

Pakistan has granted Afghan migrants, both undocumented and those holding ACC cards, a deadline of March 31 to voluntarily leave the country.

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Officials in Pakistan have completed arrangements to detain and expel Afghan citizens following the March 31 deadline for their voluntary return to Afghanistan. This move is part of the country’s plan to address the growing concerns regarding the status of Afghan migrants in Pakistan.

A high-level meeting on Friday, chaired by Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, reviewed the measures to repatriate Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) holders. This meeting focused on ensuring the effective execution of the government’s deadline and the logistics surrounding the return process.

Despite requests from the Afghan government and human rights organizations, Pakistani authorities have firmly rejected extending the deadline for the return of ACC holders. The Pakistani government had initially set the deadline for the end of March, and the expulsion process will move forward as planned.

Mohsin Naqvi also revealed that Talal Chaudhry, the State Minister for Interior, would travel to the provinces to assess and address any challenges and potential issues in the process of Afghan migrants’ return.

Meanwhile, Pakistani security forces have detained at least 932 Afghan migrants in Rawalpindi, as the deadline for the expulsion of Afghan migrants with ACC cards approaches.

​Human rights organizations have strongly condemned Pakistan’s recent decision to expel Afghan refugees, labeling it a violation of international law and a potential humanitarian crisis. They argue that many of these refugees, including human rights defenders, political activists, and victims of gender-based violence, fled Afghanistan to escape persecution and are now at risk of facing harm if deported. ​

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has expressed deep concern over the government’s ultimatum for undocumented immigrants to leave by March 31, warning that this could lead to a humanitarian disaster. They highlight that such forced repatriation violates international customary law and could adversely affect vulnerable groups, including women, children, the elderly, and individuals with disabilities. ​

Amnesty International has called on Pakistan to halt the detentions, deportations, and harassment of Afghan refugees, emphasizing that these actions violate the principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits returning individuals to places where they face risks of persecution. They stress that deporting Afghan refugees, especially women and girls, could deny them access to safety, education, and livelihoods.

Pakistan has granted Afghan migrants, both undocumented and those holding ACC cards, a deadline of March 31 to voluntarily leave the country.

However, Pakistani officials confirmed that Afghan migrants holding “PoR” cards are not at risk of being expelled until June 30.

Meanwhile, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported a sharp decline in Afghan returns and deportations during the first half of March. Between March 1 and 15, returns dropped by 67 per cent, while deportations fell by 50 per cent compared to the previous reporting period (February 16-28).

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Eid prayer led by IEA leader in Kandahar: Mujahid

Abdul Salam Hanafi, the Deputy Prime Minister for Administrative Affairs, called on opposition groups to return to Afghanistan and participate in the country’s reconstruction.

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Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate, announced on Sunday that the Eid al-Fitr prayer was held at the Eidgah Mosque in Kandahar, where Hibatullah Akhundzada, the Supreme Leader of the IEA, led the prayers.

Thousands of people attended the event, marking a significant religious occasion.

Other IEA senior officials gathered for the Eid prayer at the ARG (Presidential Palace) in Kabul.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, took the opportunity to address the public, stating that the Islamic Emirate is ready to engage with the world based on mutual respect. He also emphasized the importance of unity and solidarity among the Afghan people.

Baradar stressed that rebuilding the country requires internal unity and that no foreign entity can achieve this task for Afghanistan. On security, he highlighted the achievements of the past three years, asserting that under their administration, Afghanistan has become fully secure.

He reaffirmed that the IEA is committed to fostering international relations through an “economy-driven policy.”

Abdul Salam Hanafi, the Deputy Prime Minister for Administrative Affairs, called on opposition groups to return to Afghanistan and participate in the country’s reconstruction.

Hanafi reiterated the IEA’s desire for economy-driven relations with all regional and global powers based on mutual respect.

Mohammad Yousuf Wafa, the Governor of Balkh, also affirmed that the current system will not be undermined. He stated, “This system was established through great sacrifices, and it is our collective duty to defend it.”

The Eid prayers and the speeches of the IEA leadership underscored a message of unity, security, and a desire for positive international engagement.

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