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SIGAR: US drawdown will leave Afghan forces with ‘capability gaps’

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(Last Updated On: October 25, 2022)

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Current plans to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan will leave Afghan forces with “capability gaps” in a number of areas, which could threaten the success of reconstruction efforts in the country, a government watchdog said Friday.

Since 2001, the United States and its allies have been working to strengthen Afghanistan’s army and police forces to be able to single-handedly defend the country, but a number of major challenges continue to hinder those efforts, and further troop withdraw would likely exacerbate the situation, according to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction’s quarterly report to Congress.

“The U.S. ability to influence operational outcomes on the ground is constricting, while (that of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces) has not correspondingly risen,” the report said.

One major challenge is that the U.S. has lost much of its ability to directly observe the capabilities and effectiveness of Afghan forces since troop reductions last year. Uncertainty over Afghan troop numbers is also a concern, as is the Afghans’ ability to properly manage U.S. financial aid to support the military and police, SIGAR said.

The U.S. is currently scheduled to draw down its 9,800 troops in Afghanistan to about 5,500 by the start of next year. This reduction, SIGAR said, could result in “gaps in air support, signals, intelligence and other areas.”

In light of the challenges, it said the long-term stability of Afghan forces remains uncertain.

“Without the ability to call on U.S. and coalition military components for help … without the strong monitoring and mentoring arm of U.S. and coalition troops, it is increasingly questionable whether the ANDSF will develop into a robust and sustainable force,” the report said.

The new head of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, Gen. John Nicholson, is conducting a review of the security situation in Afghanistan, which could affect Washington’s troop withdrawal plans. His assessment is expected to be ready at the end of May.

In addition to international troop numbers, funding is also a concern.

According to SIGAR, maintaining Afghanistan’s security forces costs about $5 billion a year, with roughly 80 percent of the amount coming from the United States. SIGAR’s analysis shows that even with this level of funding, Afghan forces are unable to sustain themselves in many areas.

Nicholson’s predecessor, Gen. John Campbell, recommend continuing that funding until at least 2020.

“With the Afghan economy under great stress facing years of low growth Afghanistan’s difficulty in contributing significantly to its security costs will persist,” the watchdog said.

The United States and its allies will meet in Warsaw this summer to discuss how to share the burden of financing the costs of Afghan forces.

SIGAR said providing effective security is “essential for the survival of the Afghan state — and for the success of the reconstruction effort. Neither can deliver lasting gains without the other.”

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Afghanistan’s problems caused more damage to Pakistan than 3 wars with India: Durrani

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(Last Updated On: April 25, 2024)

Islamabad’s special envoy for Afghanistan Asif Durrani said on Wednesday that Pakistan has suffered more due to Afghanistan’s internal situation than Pakistan has suffered in three wars with India in terms of blood spilt and finances drained.

Durrani said at a one-day International Conference titled “Pakistan in the Emerging Geopolitical Landscape”, which was organized by the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) and the German Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES), that over 80,000 Pakistanis died in the two decades of the War on Terror and that his country was still counting its dead and injured.

“After the withdrawal of NATO forces, it was hoped that peace in Afghanistan would bring peace to the region. However, such expectations were short-lived,” he said.

He also stated that attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant group on Pakistan’s border areas increased by 65 percent, while suicide attacks increased by 500 percent.

“The TTP’s enhanced attacks on Pakistan while using Afghan soil have been a serious concern for Pakistan. Another worrying aspect is the participation of Afghan nationals in these attacks,” he said.

Durrani also said Pakistan had suffered geopolitically since the Soviet Union invaded the neighboring country.

“The post-9/11 world order has negatively impacted Pakistan. Apart from losing 80,000 citizens’ lives, including 8,000 law enforcement agency personnel, the country’s economic opportunity cost is estimated at $150 billion,” Durrani said.

Talking about the future outlook for Pakistan in the regional context, Durrani said that while “our eastern neighbor is likely to continue with its anti-Pakistan pursuits, the western border poses an avoidable irritant in the short to medium term.”

However, he said Pakistan can overcome its difficulties with Afghanistan, including the TTP challenge.

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Afghanistan now a ‘nexus for diplomatic endeavors’, says IEA

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(Last Updated On: April 25, 2024)

In the wake of dozens of meetings between high-ranking Islamic Emirate officials and visiting officials from foreign countries, and other diplomatic advances, the IEA said on Thursday that in the current geopolitical landscape, Kabul now “serves as a nexus for diplomatic endeavors and political deliberations pertaining to global affairs”.

In a series of posts on X, the IEA’s spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said diplomatic missions and political delegations from various nations, including Russia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, the European Union, and others, “are evident in the capital, highlighting its strategic importance in fostering Islamic cooperation”.

He said: “Recently, the honorable Minister of Transport of the Islamic Emirate, Mr. Hamidullah Akhundzada, led a significant delegation to Termez, Uzbekistan, for essential discussions aimed at enhancing bilateral relations.

“These discussions encompass a wide range of topics, from trade facilitation to security assurances, indicating a focused effort by the Islamic Emirate to strengthen and broaden its international engagements, thereby ensuring sustained development and stability.

“These initiatives, characterized by diligence and effectiveness, underscore Afghanistan’s enduring commitment to diplomatic engagement and its pivotal role in regional and global affairs,” he said.

Mujahid added that these initiatives “also emphasize the vital connection between diplomatic efforts and economic prosperity, promising favorable outcomes for Afghanistan’s socio-economic landscape.”

He pointed out that despite ongoing challenges, Afghanistan “remains steadfast in its pursuit of prosperity and resilience, defying pessimistic projections and charting a course towards political and economic renewal.”

He said: “Continued efforts are essential to fostering inclusive growth and impactful initiatives, thus advancing Afghanistan’s journey towards sustainable development and increased influence on the global stage.”

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Mullah Baradar discusses creation of railway with Kazakh deputy PM

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(Last Updated On: April 25, 2024)

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, deputy prime minister for economic affairs has met with Erik Zhumangarin, the Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, and discussed the establishment of a railway network from Kazakhstan to Pakistan through Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, the deputy PM’s office said in a statement.

During the meeting, Baradar emphasized the need to sign agreements to solve the banking problems of traders from both countries, the creation of Afghan-Kazakh joint companies, and the facilitation of visas for Afghan traders.

According to the statement, the Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan said that the Kazakh government intends to establish a joint chamber of industry and commerce and a joint trade and labor group between the two countries, and is ready to cooperate with Afghanistan in the sectors of e-governance, industry, higher education, education, health, and banking.

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